The Pacific Securities: Pay attention to the synergy of subsequent energy storage policies; expectations are expected to recover.

The Pacific Securities released a research report stating that policy resonance across 16 regions nationwide is tackling industry chaos; revenue mechanisms are being improved simultaneously. In August 2026, domestic energy storage procurement and bidding reached 32.0GW/93.2GWh, with the average price of 2-hour systems rising 19.5% month-on-month; in the first half of the year, global energy storage cell shipments totaled 467.84GWh, a year-on-year increase of 94.76%. Policies are expected to form synergy, and expectations for the subsequent energy storage industry chain are expected to recover. The Pacific Securities' main points are as follows: Event 1: Looking at recent policies, Henan strictly prohibits the resale of energy storage project quotas and limits access scale in a single region; Hebei publicly announced the disposal results of 85 energy storage projects, with 16 directly canceled, and policy resonance across 16 regions nationwide is tackling industry chaos; at the same time, revenue mechanisms are being improved simultaneously. Henan will include independent energy storage in reliable capacity compensation at 330 yuan/kWyear, and Xinjiang has implemented full-chain rules for capacity electricity fees covering "declarationcertificationassessmentretroactive payment." 2: From the data perspective, in August 2026, domestic energy storage procurement and bidding reached 32.0GW/93.2GWh, with the average price of 2-hour systems rising 19.5% month-on-month; in the first half of the year, global energy storage cell shipments totaled 467.84GWh, a year-on-year increase of 94.76%; the National Energy Administration made clear that during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, approximately 1 billion kilowatts of new wind and solar installed capacity will be added, and source-storage regulation capacity will increase by more than 40%. Pay attention to the synergy of subsequent energy storage policies; expectations are expected to recover 1) Demand-side quality requirements are increasing: total industry supply continues to grow rapidly. In the first half of 2026, global energy storage cell shipments reached 467.84GWh, a year-on-year increase of 94.76%, with Contemporary Amperex Technology ranking first. At the same time, the quality of industry demand has improved significantly under regulatory promotion. Hebei canceled 16 projects, and 69 delayed projects must substantively commence construction upon expiration. Henan strictly prohibits the resale of quotas. Policy resonance across 16 regions nationwide blocks the speculative path of "occupying without building," and the industry is shifting from extensive expansion to high-quality implementation. Industry prices have also stabilized and rebounded simultaneously. In August, the average price of 2-hour systems rose 19.5% month-on-month, while the average price of 4-hour systems fluctuated within 4% for six consecutive months, solidifying the price bottom. Demand shows a development trend of "domestic and overseas resonance, mechanism optimization" Domestic demand in the industry continues to expand. In August, procurement and bidding reached 32.0GW/93.2GWh, with independent energy storage accounting for 68%, and centralized procurement by central state-owned enterprises becoming the ballast of demand; industry revenue mechanisms are accelerating improvement. Henan will include independent energy storage in reliable capacity compensation at 330 yuan/kWyear, and Xinjiang's full-chain rules for capacity electricity fees have been implemented and cover existing power stations, significantly increasing the profit expectations and installation willingness for independent energy storage. Overseas demand has become the core growth pillar. In the first half of the year, overseas shipments reached 248.73GWh, accounting for 53.2%; small-scale energy storage shipments surged 202.57% year-on-year. Policies are expected to form synergy, and expectations for the subsequent energy storage industry chain are expected to recover From the perspective of profit models, policies provide precise support and target industry pain points point by point. Going forward, attention should be paid to the effectiveness of policy efforts. Henan blocks quota resale, policy resonance across 16 regions severely cracks down on legacy false capacity, and capacity compensation and Xinjiang's capacity electricity fee assessment and retroactive payment rules are also aimed at solving the industry's most fundamental profitability problem. At the same time, policy mechanisms are steadily gaining traction. Policies such as capacity compensation and full-chain rules have also transformed demand motivation from "building due to policy requirements" to "capital is willing to build." This self-driven demand is expected to enable stable growth in future demand for energy storage batteries. From the perspective of industry structure, the residential energy storage segment has high concentration and a clearer competitive landscape. Related companies in the industry chain a) Upstream: Ganfeng Lithium Group, Tianqi Lithium Corporation, Qinghai Yanhu Industry, etc.; b) Midstream: Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology, Hunan Yuneng New Energy Battery Material, Yunnan Energy New Material, etc.; c) Downstream: Contemporary Amperex Technology, Sungrow Power Supply, Ningbo Deye Technology Corporation, etc. Risk warning: capacity electricity price mechanism implementation falls short of expectations, intensified price competition in the industry, and large fluctuations in overseas demand and raw material prices.