A-share Market Open Express | All three major indices open lower, real estate chain active against the trend

Opening Data On September 29, the Shanghai Composite Index opened 0.20% lower at 3,816.15 points, the Shenzhen Component Index opened 0.15% lower at 12,839.61 points, and the ChiNext Index opened 0.10% lower at 3,136.53 points. The STAR 50 opened 0.17% higher at 1,558.66 points. As of 9:33, a total of 2,405 stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets were up, 2,776 were down, and 390 were flat. In terms of sectors, real estate development, real estate services, housing construction, publishing, tourism and scenic areas, and engineering consulting services led the gains. Among them, real estate development rose 1.91%, housing construction rose 0.94%, real estate services rose 0.94%, publishing rose 0.83%, tourism and scenic areas rose 0.81%, and engineering consulting services rose 0.76%; the semiconductor industry recorded a net inflow of main funds of approximately 469 million yuan and was up 0.66%. The sectors with the largest declines were precious metals, communication equipment, agriculture, and blood products. Market Conditions As of 9:33, the STAR 50 was up 0.49% at 1,563.66 points, the only one of the four major indices to rise; the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.16% to 3,817.68 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.12% to 12,843.06 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.14% to 3,135.50 points. The three major indices were fluctuating within a narrow range near their opening prices. Structurally, the real estate chain led overall, with real estate development up 1.91%, housing construction up 0.94%, real estate services up 0.94%, and engineering consulting services up 0.76%, while publishing rose 0.83% and tourism and scenic areas rose 0.81%, also active in tandem; the semiconductor industry recorded a net inflow of funds and rose 0.66%. In terms of volume and sentiment, as of 9:33, there were 16 limit-up stocks and 11 limit-down stocks in the two markets, with an advance-decline ratio of 43%. Overnight News at a Glance 1. The three major U.S. stock indices closed lower collectively: the Dow fell 0.67% to 51,481.51 points, the Nasdaq fell 0.92% to 26,820.38 points, and the S&P 500 fell 0.77%. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose above 5.2%, and the 30-year approached 5.6%. According to CME interest rate futures, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October is about 70%. 2. The State Council executive meeting studied efforts to make macro policy more effective: the meeting proposed increasing the intensity of countercyclical adjustment of macro policy, rolling out a batch of pragmatic and effective incremental policies, optimizing fiscal expenditure arrangements, making good use of the carryover quota of local government debt, increasing relending quotas for technological innovation, technological upgrading, and support for agriculture and small businesses, and studying policies to stabilize the real estate market. 3. Seven departments issued a development plan for the new-type battery industry: the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and six other departments jointly issued the 15th Five-Year Plan for the development of the new-type battery industry, proposing that by 2030 all-solid-state batteries will initially achieve large-scale application, and long-life lithium batteries will reach a cycle life of 15,000 cycles. Four departments in Shanghai issued implementation opinions on the commercial housing sales system, clarifying that newly transferred land projects will prioritize completed-home sales. Trend Analysis Institutions believe that A-shares may currently be in a stage of consolidation and repair. Considering that the previous adjustment has already released a great deal of valuation and trading risk, and that historical patterns show a relatively high probability of recovery after a pre-holiday pullback when the market reopens, the odds for "holding stocks through the holiday" have improved this time, and the importance of stockholding structure is higher than that of total position size. During the long holiday, U.S. PCE and September nonfarm payroll data will be released in a concentrated period, and external disturbances need to be monitored.