Preview of US Stock Market | All three major stock index futures fell together, oil prices rose, tech stocks broadly declined in pre-market trading, and Micron's earnings, PCE, and nonfarm payrolls are all set to arrive this week.

Pre-market Market Movements 1. On Monday, September 28, ahead of the U.S. stock market open, all three major U.S. stock index futures fell together. As of press time, Dow futures were down 0.55%, S&P 500 futures were down 0.48%, and Nasdaq futures were down 0.83%. 2. As of press time, Germany's DAX index was up 0.06%, the UK's FTSE 100 was up 0.26%, France's CAC 40 was up 0.30%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 was up 0.08%. 3. As of press time, WTI crude oil was up 3.56% at $95.70 per barrel. Brent crude was up 3.16% at $100.52 per barrel. Market News Micron Technology, Inc. earnings to test the strength of the AI infrastructure trade, OpenAI and White House AI talks resonate, PCE and nonfarm payrolls to set the tone for October rates. This week, market focus will shift to earnings and macroeconomic data. After the U.S. market close on Wednesday Eastern Time, memory chip giant Micron Technology, Inc. will report fourth-quarter results, seen as a key moment for testing whether the AI infrastructure trade can continue. Over the past two weeks, AI infrastructure-related trades have wavered, and memory chips have become one of the most prominent bottlenecks in AI computing expansion, with investors set to focus on finding evidence of continued strong memory demand. OpenAI is expected to preview GPT-6 Cyber and launch hosted agent-related products at its DevDay in San Francisco on Tuesday; U.S. President Trump, House Speaker Mike Johnson, and tech industry CEOs will meet on September 29 local time to discuss AI. Together, the three constitute a triple validation of the AI trade from models, regulation, and profitability. At the macro level, this week is a typical "jobs and inflation week." The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, PCE, will be released on Wednesday, and the September nonfarm payrolls report will arrive on Friday. Together they will determine market pricing for the Fed's October meeting and even the policy path into 2026. In addition, JOLTS job openings, the ISM manufacturing index, euro area CPI, and the Reserve Bank of Australia decision will also divert market attention. The outlook for U.S.-Iran talks is unclear. According to foreign media reports, U.S. President Trump said on September 27 that he expects the United States and Iran to restart negotiations within the next week. Trump also said he has "been considering" whether to resume military strikes on Iran, while U.S. forces are assisting in shipping out "large amounts of oil" from the Strait of Hormuz. The outlet, citing regional sources, said a new round of indirect dialogue between the U.S. and Iran is expected as early as the 28th, with mediators such as Qatar working to broker it, but the two sides remain far apart on key issues. Iran wants the talks to focus on navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of the U.S. maritime blockade on Iran, while the Trump administration demands that Iran agree to concessions on the nuclear issue. However, Iranian media reported on the 28th that Iran's delegation has no plans to meet with the U.S. side in New York. According to earlier reports, Iran proposed that if the United States lifts the maritime blockade, cancels oil sales sanctions, and restores a regional ceasefire, Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restart nuclear talks within seven days. However, Trump confirmed to the media on September 26 that he had rejected this Iranian proposal. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.: U.S. stocks are showing a "strong index, weak confidence" pattern, and a catch-up rally may become the main theme of the next phase. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. said U.S. equities are currently displaying an unusual patternstrong index performance but weak investor confidencewhich means the market still has further upside potential, and stocks previously left behind by AI leaders may be poised for a catch-up rally. The S&P 500 has gained 14% so far this year, but Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.'s U.S. equity sentiment indicator has fallen to -0.9, matching its March low. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. strategist Ben Snider and his team said in a September 25 report that this reading means investors still have room to increase equity exposure if the macroeconomic environment improves. At the same time, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.'s preferred market breadth gauge has fallen to its lowest level since the dot-com bubble era. For investors, this divergence could be significant if uncertainty over rates and economic growth fades. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. believes there is room both for broad market gains and for a rebound in lagging stocks, although unusually narrow market breadth could also keep momentum trades volatile. JPMorgan is bullish on U.S. tech stocks regaining fund favor: cooling positioning and lower valuations free up room. JPMorgan strategists believe that as positioning crowding declines, earnings remain strong, and valuations become more realistic, tech stocks will regain some of the momentum lost since the end of the first half, and investors are expected to re-enter the sector. A team led by Mislav Matejka wrote in a Monday report that the pause in the rally over the past three months has made positioning cleaner and share prices less expensive, and that together with rising capital expenditure and continued strong earnings, this "should support investors re-engaging with the sector." Tech stocks are still by far the biggest leaders in the S&P 500 this year, but the rally has cooled in recent months amid concerns that massive AI spending may not deliver the returns optimists assume. Matejka wrote: "We doubt there will ultimately be a pronounced slowdown, because this race remains an existential, winner-take-all contest." JPMorgan said that although the scale of gains seen in the first half is unlikely to repeat, opportunities still exist. Retail investors exit, institutions take over! Under the U.S. Treasury storm, "smart money" is not withdrawing but stepping in: $18.4 billion in options flows into U.S. stocks, with AI still the top choice. The latest data show that institutional investors are taking over leadership of the U.S. stock market. After years of strong buying, retail traders appear to be gradually stepping aside. At the same time, Vanda Research data show that large investors are still steadily holding stocks in the face of surging U.S. Treasury yields. Vanda global market strategist Viraj Patel wrote in a note to clients last Friday: "Institutional investors showed unexpected resilience during this week's intensified macro volatility." Data show that institutional investors' options inflows ($18.4 billion) were about three times the average for September in prior years. Patel said that although 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields climbed to their highest levels in more than a decade, large-scale inflows still rose over the past five trading sessions. He believes that beneath the broader risk-off narrative, this is a "quite constructive signal" hidden in institutional investors' risk appetite. He noted that amid market turbulence, institutional traders are selectively positioning in artificial intelligence (AI)-related names. Morgan Stanley: The U.S. Treasury market is being hit by a "perfect storm." Morgan Stanley pointed out that economic growth resilience, sticky inflation, energy market intervention risk, a hawkish Fed, corporate issuance, fiscal deficits, and uncertainty over Treasury operations are all pushing yields higher. Since March, 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields have risen by a cumulative roughly 120-150 basis points; after the Fed's 25 basis point hike in September, the market has priced in close to another 100 basis points of additional tightening. Morgan Stanley believes the market may be overestimating the eventual magnitude of rate hikes, but in the near term there is a lack of fundamental catalysts to push expectations toward a dovish shift. Individual Stock News U.S. tech stocks broadly fell in pre-market trading. On Monday ahead of the U.S. market open, as of press time, SK Hynix (SKHY.US) and SanDisk (SNDK.US) fell more than 3%, Intel Corporation (INTC.US) and Meta (META.US) fell nearly 3%, and Western Digital Corporation (WDC.US), Oracle Corporation (ORCL.US), and AMD (AMD.US) fell more than 2%, while Micron Technology, Inc. (MU.US) and Seagate Technology Holdings PLC (STX.US) fell nearly 2%. In optical communications stocks, Credo Technology (CRDO.US), Astera Labs (ALAB.US), Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL.US), Corning Inc (GLW.US), and Coherent (COHR.US) all fell more than 2%, while Nokia Oyj Sponsored ADR (NOK.US) and Lumentum (LITE.US) fell more than 1%. NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) announces major buyback! NVIDIA Corporation announced it will increase its stock repurchase authorization by $150 billion, bringing the total repurchase program to $235 billion; the company expects to execute the buyback plan before fiscal 2028. NVIDIA Corporation CEO Jensen Huang said: "NVIDIA Corporation's growth has been driven by an unprecedented platform shift, the transition to artificial intelligence and accelerated computing. Our ample cash flow allows us to invest in the technologies driving this transition and return capital to shareholders. This authorization reflects our confidence in the long-term opportunities ahead." As of press time, NVIDIA Corporation rose nearly 1% in Monday pre-market trading. Starlink, moon landings, and space computing all depend on it! SpaceX (SPCX.US) Starship's 14th flight targets first orbital insertion and deployment of a new generation of satellites. SpaceX plans to launch its giant Starship rocket earlier on Monday local time, aiming to send the spacecraft into orbit for the first time. The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) confirmed by email that it issued a "SpaceX Starship Super Heavy Flight 14 launch and reentry operations license authorization" on September 26. With Starship's 14th test flight, Elon Musk's aerospace and defense company also plans to deploy 26 new Starlink V3 satellites. Starship is the core vehicle of SpaceX's expansion strategy. The company is counting on this giant rocket to scale up its Starlink (connectivity business), which as of the second quarter was SpaceX's largest and only profitable segment. The $1,999 foldable iPhone is poised for launch, but Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) faces a patent damages award of more than $5.7 billion. U.S. consumer electronics giant Apple Inc., while ramping up its foldable iPhone and AI growth businesses, faces a haptics technology patent damages ruling of more than $5.7 billion. On September 25, a federal jury in California found that Apple Inc.'s Taptic Engine used in some iPhones and Apple Watch infringed two patents held by Taction Technology. Apple Inc. denies using the other party's technology and has made clear it will appeal. This is a jury verdict that may still be affected by subsequent judicial proceedings, and the market has not ultimately interpreted it as Apple Inc. having already paid damages. For investors, the focus is on the final liability and its cash flow impact, rather than directly using it to judge a reversal in the competitiveness of Apple Inc.'s core products. TotalEnergies (TTE.US) boosts fourth-quarter buybacks to $2.5 billion, pledges annual dividend growth of more than 5% through 2030. TotalEnergies pledged to raise its dividend by more than 5% per year through 2030 and to increase stock buybacks. The French energy giant said in a statement on Monday that it will repurchase $2.5 billion of shares in the fourth quarter of 2026 and $2 billion to $2.5 billion in the first quarter of 2027. That is larger than the previously planned $1.5 billion buyback for the July-September quarter. The company expects its debt-to-equity ratio to be below 10% by the end of this year. Although since the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran war at the end of February this year, TotalEnergies and some of its peers have been forced to halt oil and gas production around the Persian Gulf, they are benefiting from surging crude and fuel prices triggered by conflicts in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine.