Guosen: Global oil prices rebounded sharply in August, and the shortage of refined oil products continues to intensify.

Guosen released a research report stating that the average price of Brent futures in August 2026 was $88.3/barrel, up $4.5/barrel month-on-month, and the average price of WTI futures was $82.5/barrel, up $3.9/barrel month-on-month; since September, war has reignited in the Middle East, and international oil prices first rose and then fell, with Brent futures prices once rising to $110/barrel. On the supply side, Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz may affect about 10 million barrels/day of supply, and the halt in exports through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait poses a short-term threat to about 4 million barrels/day of crude oil supply; on the inventory side, both U.S. crude oil inventories and strategic petroleum reserves have hit their lowest levels since 1983. The central range for Brent and WTI oil prices in 2026 is expected to be $80-100/barrel. The upstream oil and gas exploration sector is expected to maintain relatively high prosperity, and the profitability of refining and chemical enterprises with overseas production capacity and export qualifications is expected to improve. Guosen's main points are as follows: Oil Price Review The average price of Brent futures in August 2026 was $88.3/barrel, up $4.5/barrel month-on-month, closing at $89.3/barrel; the average spot price of Brent was $91.7/barrel, up $8.5/barrel month-on-month, closing at $89.8/barrel, and the average price of WTI futures was $82.5/barrel, up $3.9/barrel month-on-month, closing at $83.4/barrel. In early August, the U.S. and Iran released signals of easing, progress was made in negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz, and U.S. oil prices fell sharply to around $75; on August 17, the U.S.-Iran negotiation window expired, the United States introduced new sanctions on Iran, strengthening restrictions on Iran's crude oil exports, traffic through the strait remained low, and oil prices continued to rise; in late August, the market digested the impact of the new sanctions, while rumors emerged that the U.S. and Iran were about to reach a ceasefire, and Iran and Afghanistan reached a framework understanding on passage through the strait, causing oil prices to fall back from highs; at the end of August, expectations that the United States would restore the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding cooled, and oil prices rebounded again. Since September, war has reignited in the Middle East, and international oil prices first rose and then fell. On September 8, Yemen's Houthi armed forces attacked a Saudi oil tanker in the Red Sea, and Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline was preventively shut down after a drone attack, greatly raising the risk of supply disruptions in the Middle East. Brent crude oil futures prices once rose to $110/barrel. As Saudi Arabia announced the restart of the East-West oil pipeline, oil prices fell slightly to around $100/barrel. Oil Price View and Judgment Supply side: In July, the United States canceled the oil sales waiver for Iran, after which Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which may affect about 10 million barrels/day of supply; on July 20, the Houthis announced a "maritime embargo" on Saudi Arabia, and a drone attack on Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline restricted transport capacity, causing crude oil exports through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to stall, posing a short-term threat to about 4 million barrels/day of crude oil supply. In the future, continued attention must be paid to the impact of traffic conditions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on supply. Demand side: Major international energy agencies expect crude oil demand changes in 2026 to be (-250)-380,000 barrels/day, and expect crude oil demand growth in 2027 to be 2.36-2.6 million barrels/day: according to the latest monthly reports from OPEC, IEA, and EIA, crude oil demand in 2026 is expected to be +380,000, -2.5 million, and -1.68 million barrels/day compared with 2025, respectively; crude oil demand in 2027 is expected to increase by 2.36 million, 2.6 million, and 2.38 million barrels/day compared with 2026, respectively. Inventory side: EIA forecasts global crude oil destocking of about 3 million barrels/day in the third quarter, and expects continued destocking of 1.7 million barrels/day in the fourth quarter. As of the end of August, U.S. crude oil inventories fell to 711 million barrels, and strategic petroleum reserves fell to 287 million barrels, both hitting their lowest levels since 1983. OECD inventories are expected to fall to 2.3 billion barrels by the end of 2026, the lowest since 2003. Affected by the U.S.-Israel-Iran war, the central range for Brent and WTI oil prices in 2026 is expected to be $80-100/barrel. The upstream oil and gas exploration sector is expected to maintain relatively high prosperity, and the profitability of refining and chemical enterprises with overseas production capacity and export qualifications is expected to improve. Risk warnings: Fluctuations in raw material prices; fluctuations in product prices; downstream demand falling short of expectations, etc.