3,835x oversubscription, 20% discount: A look at the true investment value of Mech-Mind (09615) after the IPO frenzy fades

On September 1, 2026, Mech-Mind (09615) listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange at an issue price of HK$101.7, becoming the "first listed company in embodied intelligence eyes, brains, and hands." Prior to listing, the company's Hong Kong public offering recorded approximately 3,835x oversubscription, with about 252,500 subscribers, setting a new record for Hong Kong stock Siasun Robot&Automation IPO subscription in 2026; nine cornerstone investors collectively subscribed US$186 million, locking up 62.02% of the global offering shares, with Baillie Gifford leading with US$60 million. But capital enthusiasm failed to support the share price. On the first day of listing, the company's share price broke issue price and closed down at HK$99.8, down 1.87% from the issue price. It then fell for four consecutive trading days, and on September 4 it once dipped to HK$75.4 intraday, with market value shrinking to approximately HK$9.8 billion. As of September 21, the share price was HK$80.3, still at a discount of more than 20% to the issue price. (Quote source: Futu) The 3,835x oversubscription was the market's enthusiasm, while the four consecutive days of decline were the market's calm. Between enthusiasm and calm lies a mandatory question about Mech-Mind's valuation. Performance perspective: a trio of high growth, high gross margin, and "not making money" According to GMTEight, Mech-Mind was founded in 2016 and is an intelligent Siasun Robot&Automation component supplier, mainly providing integrated software and hardware solutions composed of Siasun Robot&Automation "vision" and "intelligence" components. The company's products are mainly divided into two major product lines: intelligent Siasun Robot&Automation guidance and intelligent inspection and measurement. At the same time, through fully independent research and development, and supported by its proprietary multimodal large model Mech-GPT, it has developed a new generation of embodied intelligence foundational components. These components integrate multiple core technologies of the company, including high-precision 3D cameras and the biomimetic five-fingered dexterous hand Mech-Hand designed for dexterous manipulation. As of the latest practicable date, the company has deployed more than 27,000 products globally, serving more than 100 Fortune Global 500 companies, including Contemporary Amperex Technology, BYD Company Limited, Midea, and Foxconn. From the revenue side, Mech-Mind's growth curve is quite attractive. From 2023 to 2025, revenue increased from RMB181 million to RMB389 million, a compound growth rate of 46.6%; in the first quarter of 2026, revenue was RMB107 million, a year-on-year increase of 73.1%, with growth accelerating rather than slowing. According to China Insights Consultancy data, the company ranks first in the global AI + 3D vision-guided general intelligent Siasun Robot&Automation component market with a 22.1% revenue share, and its shipment volume also ranks first in the industry. At the same time, the jump in Mech-Mind's gross margin is equally strikingrising from 39.1% to 64.6%, and maintaining a high level of 64.8% in the first quarter of 2026, close to the level of SaaS companies. There are two core DRIVEs: first, the proportion of overseas revenue exceeded half for the first time, reaching 50.3%, and the gross margin of overseas business was as high as 79.2%, far higher than 49.8% in the domestic market; second, the degree of product standardization is high, and the marginal replication cost is extremely low. However, the other side of high growth and high gross margin is continued huge losses. According to the previously disclosed prospectus, from 2023 to 2025, Mech-Mind's net losses were RMB401 million, RMB283 million, and RMB360 million, respectively, with cumulative losses over three years reaching RMB1.044 billion; even after excluding non-cash items such as redeemable liabilities, the adjusted net loss still reached RMB657 million. The company also stated directly in the prospectus: "Since its establishment, the company has been in a loss-making state" and "its ability to continue as a going concern is highly dependent on external financing." Breaking down the loss structure, it is not difficult to see that Mech-Mind's funds are mainly invested in two major directions: first, stably maintaining R&D investment at a level exceeding RMB100 million each year, continuously iterating 3D cameras, AI algorithms, and software platforms; second, building overseas subsidiaries, local technical support, and sales networks, paying upfront costs for globalization. From 2023 to 2025, the company's selling expenses were RMB186 million, RMB162 million, and RMB168 million, respectively. The above capital investment is clearly a typical growth path of "paying for the future." In the short term, it suppresses the income statement and amplifies losses; in the long term, it is accumulating strength for technological barriers, generational product leadership, and overseas channel positioning. But the premise for "paying for the future" to hold is that the future really arrivesif revenue growth cannot keep up with the pace of investment, this bill will turn from investment into overdraft. Industry outlook: "a long slope with thick snow" under low penetration Of course, for Mech-Mind, the real opportunity is not betting on the outbreak of a certain Siasun Robot&Automation form, but betting on the long-term rigid demand for intelligence across the entire physical world. Mech-Mind's most unique positioning is that it does not make complete machines, but focuses on being a shovel seller of standardized upstream "eye-brain-hand" components. It does not compete directly with Siasun Robot&Automation body manufacturers, but provides 3D vision + AI guidance solutions for almost all brands of robotic arms, equivalent to installing eyes and a brain on industrial Siasun Robot&Automation. From the fundamentals of the track, the track Mech-Mind is in has sufficient long-term space. The global AI + 3D vision-guided general intelligent Siasun Robot&Automation component market was only about RMB1.8 billion in 2025, and is expected to grow to RMB10.6 billion by 2030 at a compound annual growth rate of 43.2%. By 2035, the market is expected to further expand to RMB102.5 billion, with a compound annual growth rate of 57.5%. In addition, the penetration rate of AI + 3D vision guidance in the general intelligent Siasun Robot&Automation market was about 5.1% in 2025, and is expected to grow to 10.6% by 2030 and reach 22.2% by 2035, highlighting the huge growth potential of this market. Looking further, the industry's driving logic is not the short-term hot humanoid concept, but more solid underlying demand: that is, multiple factors such as flexible upgrading of manufacturing, popularization of logistics automation, and rigid replacement of production lines for highly difficult disordered grasping and positioning and feeding scenarios are stimulating the release of demand. In this regard, Mech-Mind's management has also publicly expressed a relatively calm judgment: humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation will be difficult to enter factories on a large scale in the short term, and the main battlefield in the coming years will still be general flexible transformation of industrial and logistics scenarios. To a certain extent, this positioning helps it escape being kidnapped by the single narrative of "whether humanoids will be mass-produced" and anchor itself to a more medium- and long-term industrial main line. But the track is also full of variables and hidden worrieslarge domestic automation companies and established overseas giants have accelerated their entry into layout, and the track is rapidly turning from a blue ocean to a red ocean; downstream manufacturing capital expenditure has strong cyclical attributes, and if the global manufacturing climate declines, corporate automation budgets will directly shrink; at the same time, large model technology is iterating rapidly, and whether new alternative routes will emerge in the future remains uncertain. However, in such a development environment, Mech-Mind has also established its own core barriersnot a single-point algorithm advantage, but a set of composite capabilities: a global market share of 22.1% by 2025 revenue, ranking first globally in shipment volume; leading shares in multiple major markets including China, Japan, South Korea, and North America; delivery in nearly 50 countries and regions, with rare overseas localized service capabilities. The implementation of industrial vision is highly dependent on scenario data accumulation, on-site debugging experience, and long-term customer trust. This combination of "opto-mechatronic hardware + industrial AI + global delivery network" builds a relatively high threshold for catching up. Based on the above, it is not difficult to see that Mech-Mind, with its leading global market position, complete "eye-brain-hand" technology system, and mature global delivery capability, stands in a favorable position in the wave of intelligence in the physical world. But in the face of increasingly fierce industry competition, manufacturing cyclical fluctuations, and the potential impact of technology route iteration, leading status does not mean once and for all. Conclusion Mech-Mind is in a track with extremely high certainty3D vision guidance is a key link in Siasun Robot&Automation intelligence, and a single-digit penetration rate means sufficient long-term growth space. The company occupies a leading position with a 22.1% market share, a 64.6% gross margin proves the product's pricing power, and overseas revenue accounting for more than half with a gross margin of nearly 80% is an even rarer structural advantage. But valuation prices the "future," and the realization of the future requires crossing the threshold of losses. Based on the issue price, Mech-Mind's market value is approximately HK$12.7 billion, corresponding to 2025 revenue of RMB389 million, with a price-to-sales ratio of more than 30x. This valuation level is the premium the market pays for its global leading position, high gross margin structure, and the imaginative space of embodied intelligence. But to digest this premium, it cannot rely only on industrial stories; it must continue to achieve the positive effect of rapid revenue expansion and steady narrowing of losses. After all, the capital market is willing to pay for technological vision, but the true value of an enterprise must ultimately land on the results of commercialization.