After the "major reshuffle" of Stock Connect, there may be a "quasi-Connect" target outside the list.

Title context: After the "major reshuffle" of Stock Connect, there may be a "quasi-Connect" target outside the list. Text: On September 7, the latest periodic adjustment to the Stock Connect southbound trading list of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges officially took effect. In this round, 54 Hong Kong-listed companies were added in one go, while 15 were removed. After going through the list, the first intuitive impression is that the weight of the new economy track is being systematically strengthenedthe added targets are concentrated in three main lines: biopharmaceuticals, AI and semiconductors, and high-end equipment manufacturing. This kind of "structural reshaping" deserves careful consideration. Because every adjustment to Stock Connect is essentially a redrawing of the investable boundary for southbound capital. And who can get in, who has to wait, and where exactly the threshold lies can all be calculated. Getting into Stock Connect is actually not that mysterious The inclusion mechanism of Stock Connect is complicated if you want it to be, and simple if you want it to be. It mainly comes down to two points: First, index identity. Constituents of the Hang Seng Composite LargeCap Index and the Hang Seng Composite MidCap Index can, in principle, be directly included in Stock Connectthis is the "direct line." Constituents of the Hang Seng Composite SmallCap Index, however, need to meet an additional market capitalization threshold. Second, the market capitalization threshold. Under the rules, for a Hang Seng Composite SmallCap Index constituent to be included in Stock Connect, its average month-end market capitalization over the 12 months before the review date must be no less than HK$5 billion. But there is a point that is easy to overlook: HK$5 billion is only the statutory floor. The real threshold is dynamicStock Connect eligibility relies on the Hang Seng Composite Index compilation rules, using the average market capitalization over the past 12 months as the basis and setting a floating threshold according to cumulative market capitalization coverage. According to institutional estimates, the threshold at the December 31, 2025 node was about HK$9.307 billion, and by the June 30, 2026 node it had risen to about HK$10.156 billion. In other words, the actual threshold is more than twice the statutory line of HK$5 billion. Now for the time window. Stock Connect undergoes four periodic adjustments a year (March, June, September, and December), among which March and September are large-scale concentrated adjustments, while June and December are small-scale fine-tuning; the data cutoff benchmark dates are June 30 and December 31, with results announced in late August and February respectively, and taking effect in September and March. So if you are observing a company with an eye toward "getting into Stock Connect," what you should really watch is its average market capitalization over the 12 months before the benchmark date, as well as the next effective window. Which "quasi-Connect" companies are more worth studying in the future The inclusion list is the "result," but discovering "quasi-Connect" targets in advance is the more valuable thingbecause the valuation re-rating brought by improved liquidity often happens before inclusion, not after. Following this line of thinking, I went through the Hong Kong small-cap targets whose circulating market capitalization is near the threshold. Several of them are worth recording separately. First, look at the samples that have already made it through this path: Lightelligence (01879): Listed on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on April 28, 2026, as the "world's first AI silicon photonics chip stock," and was included in Stock Connect on September 7, just over four months after listing. It is a rare optoelectronic hybrid computing power target in Hong Kongoptical interconnect solves high-speed data transmission between GPU clusters, while optical computing attempts to complete matrix operations with photons; revenue in the first half of 2026 was RMB79.78 million, up 284% year on year, and trading volume increased significantly after inclusion. Transwarp Technology (06727): Just listed on September 21 as a specialist technology company under Chapter 18C, becoming the first A-share company to conduct a secondary listing in Hong Kong under the 18C rules, and was included in Stock Connect on the day of listingan A+H entity does not need to wait painfully for a periodic adjustment; this is the fastest channel. From "inclusion on the day of listing" to "clearing in just over four months," and then to transformed old stocks waiting for the next window, these cases repeatedly confirm one rule: the institutional level's acceptance of high-quality new economy companies, especially computing power companies, is accelerating. Still one step short: GBA AI COMP (01396) It did not appear in the September list. According to the rules, the main bottlenecks are two thresholds: the climbing progress of the 12-month average market capitalization, and Hang Seng Composite Index constituent status. Let's calculate the first one. Stock Connect examines the average market capitalization over the 12 months before the review date, which is a rolling window. The window for this September round was from July 2025 to June 2026, while the company's share price increase mainly occurred in 2026, rising more than 120% year to date. Looking forward: the average daily market capitalization over the first seven months has already exceeded HK$13.5 billion, and since August it has risen above HK$17 billion. Assuming conservatively that it stays flat from here, the 12-month average would land at HK$14.515.5 billion, corresponding to this round's threshold of HK$10.156 billion, leaving a sufficient safety margin. Time is on its side. The more likely reason is that Hang Seng Composite Index constituent status needs to be aligned item by item with the cycle. And what the company has been making up for in the past six months is exactly these lessons: in February 2026 it was included in the MSCI China Small Cap Index, in May it completed a name change, and in June it was classified by Hang Seng Indexes Company under "Information TechnologyInternet Services and Infrastructure"industry classification, index affiliation, and main business have only just aligned. GBA AI COMP (01396) has not yet been included in Stock Connect. Based on the Stock Connect inclusion rules and the company's current market capitalization, the most likely time window is the first trading day of March 2027. However, rather than always waiting for that "Stock Connect admission letter," I would instead recommend refocusing on the company's business itself. Because Stock Connect is more like the first step in opening up southbound liquidity, not the endpoint of the stock price logic. In the first half of 2026, the company's revenue was RMB2.56 billion, surging 10-fold year on year, with AI revenue accounting for 93.1%, intended AI computing power orders in hand exceeding RMB37 billion, and more than RMB20 billion already delivered and steadily billedwhether these business figures can continue to be delivered is the fundamental factor determining how high a valuation the market is willing to give it after inclusion and how far the share price can go. In the new round of Stock Connect adjustments officially effective on September 7, 2026, the 54 newly included stocks showed a significant "more decliners than advancers" on the first effective day. The latest statistics show 42 stocks fell, accounting for about 78%. Only 12 stocks closed higher, with a probability of gain of only 22%. In other words, after inclusion, what is solved is the question of "who can buy"; performance is what solves the question of "why Beijing Zhidemai Technology." Why inclusion in Stock Connect is worth paying attention to Many investors simply understand "inclusion in Stock Connect" as the opening of a trading permission, but the changes it actually brings are multidimensional: First, incremental capital. Stock Connect is the main channel for mainland public funds, insurance, and individual investors to allocate to Hong Kong stocks. After inclusion, passive index funds need to buy passively, and active funds will also begin to cover the stock. The increase in the southbound shareholding ratio is usually an observable leading indicator. Second, convergence of the valuation system. Hong Kong stocks have long had a liquidity discount for small- and mid-cap companies. After inclusion in Stock Connect, the pricing logic will move closer to the valuation anchor of A-share companies in the same track, and the repair of the discount itself is a source of excess returns. In closing I prefer to view Stock Connect adjustments as a "regularly updated value list." The companies on the list have already passed the market's first round of screening, while those outside the list that have already obtained index identity, are delivering on performance, and have a solid market capitalization are the next round's capital entry points. The calculation itself is not complicated; what is difficult is maintaining patience amid noisy markets. The rule-based window is fixed; the rest, leave to time. This article is reprinted from the "Stock Connect" WeChat public account, author: Tianxing; GMTEight editor: Xu Wenqiang.