Soochow: Advanced process nodes elevate material value; semiconductor fluorine-containing materials accelerate domestic substitution.

Soochow released a research report stating that high-end photoresists and electronic specialty gases remain the directions with greater room for domestic substitution. Domestic substitution of high-end fluorine-containing materials continues to advance, and the firm is bullish on enterprises with underlying fluorochemical platform capabilities that have achieved customer certification and large-scale volume ramp-up in high-end categories such as electronic-grade HF, HFE/PFPE, WF6/C4F6, and PFA/FFKM. Soochow's main views are as follows: Advanced process nodes increase the intensity of semiconductor chemical usage, with value elasticity and domestic substitution space for high-end photoresists and electronic specialty gases more prominent. According to SEMI, the global semiconductor chemicals market is expected to exceed US$20 billion in 2026, with electronic gases and wet electronic chemicals accounting for approximately 31% and 19%, respectively, contributing the main basic value. As capacity growth for 7nm advanced process nodes outpaces the overall industry, the number of lithography, etching, and CMP cycles increases, driving simultaneous increases in material usage per wafer and the share of high-end products. By category, advanced process nodes provide more obvious marginal pull for photoresists, CMP, and electronic specialty gases; on the domestic substitution front, in 2025, the firm estimates the overall domestic substitution rate for wet chemicals has reached 50%-60%, while the domestic substitution rate for KrF/ArF photoresists is estimated at less than 3%/1%, and the domestic substitution rate for electronic specialty gases is estimated at about 25%. High-end photoresists and electronic specialty gases remain the directions with greater room for domestic substitution. Fluorinated liquids and hydrofluoric acid: 3M's exit opens a substitution window for PFPE/HFE, while HF is driven by wafer capacity expansion and higher-grade requirements. PFPE is mainly used for temperature control in semiconductor equipment. 3M announced at the end of 2022 that it would exit PFAS manufacturing, and the firm estimates that 3M then held about 80% of the global semiconductor temperature control fluid share (by production volume); after its formal exit at the end of 2025, the original share began to be redistributed, and Shenzhen Capchem Technology can take over the main share. The firm estimates that PFPE demand will reach 12,000 tons by 2030, with a market space of RMB6.3 billion, and domestic manufacturers with mass production and equipment certification capabilities are expected to take over share. HFE is mainly used for semiconductor and precision electronic cleaning. After 3M Novec's exit, it has entered a substitution period, with overseas supply still dominated by AGC, Chemours, and others; the firm estimates global demand of 7,600 tons by 2030, with a market space of RMB1.44 billion, and the focus of competition is shifting to customer certification and stable supply. Electronic-grade HF is driven by wafer start growth, an increasing share of advanced/storage products, and G5/G5+ penetration. The firm estimates demand of 270,000 tons by 2030, with a market space of RMB5.4 billion, while effective high-grade supply remains constrained by purification, clean packaging, and customer certification. Fluorine-containing electronic specialty gases: demand focus is upgrading from mature cleaning gases to advanced etching/deposition gases, with WF6 and C4F6 supply-demand tightness and prominent volume-price elasticity. WF6 is used for CVD/ALD tungsten deposition. Driven by advanced storage, logic metallization, and overseas supply disruptions, the firm calculates that global demand will increase from about 9,400 tons in 2025 to 19,300 tons in 2030, with market space rising from RMB10.3 billion to RMB22.1 billion; in 2026, supply and demand will remain tight, the product price center will move upward, and Peric Special Gases will have 2,000 tons of 6N-grade capacity in 2026, with another 1,000 tons of planned capacity that the firm expects to commence production in 2027. C4F6 is used for high-aspect-ratio dielectric etching. Driven by advanced logic, HBM, and 3D NAND, the firm calculates that global demand will increase from 2,000-3,000 tons in 2025 to 6,000 tons in 2030, with market space rising from RMB5.5 billion to RMB14 billion; in 2026, effective 5N-grade demand will be about 2,200 tons, with a supply-demand gap. Domestically, Haohua Chemical Science & Technology Corp. and Peric Special Gases have already formed capacity or small-batch supply. Fluorine-containing polymers: PFA and FFKM have greater elasticity, while high-end effective supply remains constrained by purity, clean processing, and certification systems. PFA is a core structural material for wet processes, used in wet equipment pipelines, valves, fittings, tanks, and filter housings; global semiconductor-grade PFA demand in 2025 is about 20,000 tons, and the firm estimates that ultra-pure PFA demand may reach about 40,000 tons by 2030. As of 2026H1, Chemours + Daikin nominal capacity accounts for more than 40% of global PFA nominal capacity, while domestic Juhua is gradually making breakthroughs. PTFE has the largest usage volume, with sufficient domestic supply in the low-to-mid end, but ultra-pure grades still rely on overseas sources. FFKM is a key sealing material for etching and deposition equipment, and the firm estimates that global semiconductor-grade raw rubber demand in 2026 will be about 200 tons. Overseas high-end seals are dominated by DuPont, Greene Tweed, and others, while domestic Juhua and Dongyue are accelerating substitution, but effective capacity in 2025 is only 8-10 tons, and subsequent volume ramp-up still depends on low extraction, batch consistency, and advanced process certification. Risk warnings: downstream demand falling short of expectations; intensifying price competition; customer certification or capacity expansion progress falling short of expectations; stricter environmental and PFAS regulation.