HK Stock Concept Tracking | Rising Natural Gas Prices Force Energy Switching; Global Coal Consumption May Hit Record This Year (With Concept Stocks)

International Energy Agency (IEA) expects coal consumption to hit a record this year, affected by ongoing oil and gas trade restrictions triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen sharply, leaving some countries facing energy shortages and forcing them to turn to other energy sources. Asian countries including Japan, India, the Philippines, South Korea, and Thailand, as well as some European countries, have been forced to increase coal use to fill the gap. A relatively strong El Nio phenomenon may occur this year. Affected by it, cooling electricity demand in major Asian coal-consuming countries such as India and Vietnam has risen, while high temperatures have led to insufficient river water inflow, causing hydropower output to decline and further supporting coal demand. Affected by high oil prices, coal consumption in China's coal chemical sector has also increased. The IEA expects demand for coal as an energy commodity to grow 1.2% in 2026, bringing global consumption to a record 8.94 billion metric tons. As the world's two largest coal consumers, China and India are expected to see coal demand rise by 1% and 4.2%, respectively, reaching 5 billion tons and 1.353 billion tons. It is worth noting that the agency had originally expected global coal demand to edge down year on year. The IEA pointed out that as the world's largest coal producer, China launched industry-wide safety inspections after a major mining accident in May, causing a significant decline in domestic coal output and also dragging down global total production. After global coal production hit a record high in 2025, it is expected to decline in 2026, but total output will still remain above 8 billion tons for a third consecutive year. As the military conflict in the Middle East intensifies supply disruptions and the urgent need to replenish inventories before the winter heating season drives demand, European natural gas prices have continued to rise. On September 10, the settlement price of Dutch natural gas futures rose to 82 euros per megawatt-hour, up 147.7% year on year and 14.3% month on month. In terms of inventories, Europe's recent natural gas storage level was about 65.83%, down about 12.7 percentage points year on year, the lowest level in recent years. Institutions believe that with the arrival of the winter heating season, the EU's relatively rigid restocking demand may push Eurasian LNG prices further upward. The IEA said the market situation may change again in 2027, and the outlook remains highly uncertain, depending to a large extent on whether shipping through the Strait of Hormuz can recover. If LNG transportation through the strait recovers and natural gas prices fall back to pre-conflict levels, global coal demand may decline in 2027; if LNG shipping through the strait remains largely blocked, coal demand will rise further. GF SEC said that due to continuously stricter safety supervision, which clearly constrains capacity release, domestic supply has contracted more than expected. In the short term, coal supply and demand will remain in a tight balance, while the trend of supply contraction will continue in the medium and long term. Leading coal companies have stable dividend payout ratios of 50% or higher. As coal prices and profits recover, this will bring a dual recovery in sector earnings and valuation. Related concept stocks: China Shenhua Energy (01088): In the first half of 2026, the company achieved operating revenue of 189.338 billion yuan, up 7.93% year on year; net profit attributable to shareholders was 31.054 billion yuan, up 1.89% year on year. Yankuang Energy Group (01171): In the first half of 2026, the company recorded sales revenue of 70.231 billion yuan, up 15.4% year on year; net income attributable to shareholders for the period was 7.875 billion yuan, up 57.2% year on year. China Coal Energy (01898): In the first half of 2026, the company's revenue was 73.136 billion yuan, down 1.8% from the same period in 2025; profit attributable to shareholders in the first half of 2026 was 8.192 billion yuan, up 11.8% from the same period in 2025.