Guotai Haitong: The time for long-cycle positioning in precious metals has arrived; continue to be bullish on the investment value of rare earths over the medium to long term.

Guotai Haitong released a research report stating that Waller's remarks were hawkish, and expectations for the U.S. economy were revised upward, with rate hike expectations weighing on precious metals prices. Tensions in the Middle East eased, and inflation expectations weakened somewhat, supporting precious metals prices. The long-term logic for precious metals remains solid, and the time for long-cycle positioning has arrived. In copper, after the rate hike was implemented, macroeconomic pressure eased marginally, and low inventories supported high-level fluctuations. In rare earths, in the short term, considering the transition between peak and off-peak seasons, combined with the approaching National Day holiday, downstream restocking demand is expected to be gradually released. Over the medium to long term, we continue to be bullish on the investment value of rare earths as a key strategic resource. Guotai Haitong's main views are as follows: Precious metals: The Federal Reserve raised rates for the first time and took a hawkish stance, oil prices fell, and precious metals prices fluctuated. Last week, precious metals prices maintained a fluctuating trend after the Federal Reserve's rate hike was implemented and oil prices fell sharply. Waller's remarks were hawkish, and expectations for the U.S. economy were revised upward, with rate hike expectations weighing on precious metals prices. Tensions in the Middle East eased, and inflation expectations weakened somewhat, supporting precious metals prices. The long-term logic for precious metals remains solid, and the time for long-cycle positioning has arrived. Copper: After the rate hike was implemented, macroeconomic pressure eased marginally, and low inventories supported high-level fluctuations. The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25bp in September to 3.75%-4.00%, and the earlier tightening expectations were largely priced in, but Middle East tensions pushed up oil prices, while high levels of the dollar and U.S. Treasuries still limited the upside for copper prices; the premium driver from U.S. refined copper tariffs weakened. At the same time, import copper concentrate TC continued to decline, and some smelters' willingness to cut production increased; domestic inventories remain at low levels, and short-term copper prices and related equities are expected to remain in high-level fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the Federal Reserve's subsequent rate hike path, China-U.S. economic and trade negotiations, and peak-season demand. Aluminum: Domestic destocking accelerated, and aluminum prices fluctuated. On the macro side, the Federal Reserve's rate hike was implemented, and tensions in the Middle East continued. On the supply side, overseas Bahrain Aluminum's operating capacity recovered to 1.3 million tons. On the demand side, last week the aluminum processing operating rate continued to recover to 61.9%, with the new energy sector underpinning the industry's recovery. On the inventory side, according to SMM statistics, as of last Thursday, domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 733,000 tons, down 63,000 tons from the previous Thursday. Tin: Supply constraints continued, while demand recovery remained relatively weak. Wa State's resumption of production is constrained by drainage and grade issues, and the tight ore supply pattern remains unchanged; however, domestic refined tin output increased year-on-year, supplementing supply. Demand is mainly driven by bargain restocking, with AI server and advanced packaging demand resilient but with limited incremental growth. Short-term tin prices are expected to remain in high-level fluctuations, with subsequent focus on Wa State's resumption of production, Indonesian exports, and peak-season order fulfillment. Energy metals: Inventory destocking slowed, and prices weakened. Lithium carbonate: Last week, lithium carbonate output continued to recover, and inventories continued to be destocked. Due to adjustments in third-party data methodology, the low-inventory logic weakened. On the supply side, the outlook for the resumption of production at Jiangxi's major mine is concerning, and the hope for resumption within the year remains unclear. Zimbabwean concentrate arrived at ports, and the supply increase has already been reflected in prices. Demand expectations are poor, and the previous strong reality trading logic of low inventories no longer holds. Nickel sector: Refined nickel inventories have been somewhat destocked, Indonesia's second batch of nickel ore quotas remains unclear, nickel supply and demand are in a loose balance, iron ore prices continued to weaken, and the nickel price center is expected to remain range-bound. Rare earths: Rare earth prices fluctuated month-on-month. On September 18, 2026, the prices of praseodymium-neodymium oxide, dysprosium oxide, and terbium oxide were 729,000 yuan/ton, 1,445,000 yuan/ton, and 6,625,000 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan/ton, flat, and down 50,000 yuan/ton month-on-month, with month-on-month changes of -0.27%, 0.00%, and -0.75%. In the short term, considering the transition between peak and off-peak seasons, combined with the approaching National Day holiday, downstream restocking demand is expected to be gradually released. Over the medium to long term, we continue to be bullish on the investment value of rare earths as a key strategic resource. Strategic minor metals: Strategic value is prominent. Tungsten: Commodity supply and demand are relatively weak, but the strategic metal attribute is expected to strengthen sector trading. Domestic "Golden September" demand remains weak, APT operating rates fell below 70%, with proactive production cuts and destocking, and short-term tungsten prices are expected to remain weak and stable; however, rigid ore supply and export controls continue to provide bottom support. In addition, on the equity side, more attention should be paid to the thematic elasticity brought by the revaluation of strategic resources, and market performance may be stronger than tungsten prices themselves. Uranium: The August natural uranium long-term contract price was $96.5 per pound, up month-on-month. Rigid supply and nuclear power development create a long-standing uranium supply-demand gap, and uranium prices are expected to continue rising. Tantalum: Supply-demand mismatch supports tantalum prices. Global tantalum ore supply is tight, and AI development is driving end demand. The bank expects tantalum prices to remain high. It is recommended to pay attention to capacity releases from leading companies. Risk warnings: Downstream demand weaker than expected, large-scale supply releases, and the Federal Reserve's rate cut process falling short of expectations.