New Roadster finally gets a date after nine years of delays! Morningstar maintains its $450 price target for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US): the supercar is not the valuation logicFSD, Robotaxi, and Optimus are.

Notice that recently, Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) posted on a social platform, announcing that the new-generation Roadster sports car will be unveiled on October 1. This is the first time since the prototype first appeared in November 2017 that Tesla, Inc. has given a public event date with a specific date and an official invitation. On the eve of the debut of its highly anticipated supercar, Morningstar's latest stance on the Roadster event is quite clear. It maintains Tesla, Inc.'s 3-star rating and $450 fair value estimate unchanged, with an economic moat rating of "narrow" and an uncertainty rating of "very high." Regarding the Roadster itself, Morningstar's characterization is a "halo model": Tesla, Inc. discontinued the Model S and Model X earlier this year to free up production capacity for the Optimus humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation, and the Roadster will take over the brand role of "demonstrating Tesla, Inc.'s strongest engineering capabilities." But Morningstar expects its annual sales to be only about 2,000 units, almost negligible compared with its forecast of annual deliveries in the near-million range for the company. The firm said, "Our forecast already assumed the Roadster would go into production," meaning the event does not constitute a reason for an upward revision to valuation. The real basis for Morningstar maintaining its $450 fair value remains the three pillars: FSD software subscriptions (about 1.3 million subscribers), the Robotaxi network, and the Optimus humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation. "Halo Model" A rather representative fact is that, among the latest research reports covering Tesla, Inc., not one includes Roadster sales or profit in its valuation model. Most institutions characterize it as "a catalyst for attention and narrative, not a catalyst for earnings." The Information estimates that even at 10,000 units x $250,000, about $2.5 billion in revenue would be only 2.4% of the consensus forecast for Tesla, Inc.'s 2026 revenue (about $105.2 billion). NeoData data shows that as of September 2026, 38 institutions had an average target price of $377.40 for Tesla, Inc., with a rating distribution of 44% buy/overweight, 46% hold, and 10% underweight/sell. The substance of the disagreement has nothing to do with the Roadster, but rather with the autonomous driving and Siasun Robot&Automation narrative. Among the bulls, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives gives Tesla, Inc. a latest target price of $600; Piper Sandler's (target price $500) sum-of-the-parts valuation model believes the value of Optimus and "inference-as-a-service" could exceed the combined value of all other businesses; Morgan Stanley's bull-case target price is as high as $840, but Robotaxi accounts for about $120 (30%) of its $400 base-case target price. Among the bears, Wells Fargo & Company gives $130, with core concerns being: more than $25 billion in capital expenditure in 2026, intensifying competition in the core automotive business, and the high degree of uncertainty around the commercialization timetable for FSD/Robotaxi. For investors, the implication of institutional views is this: whether the Roadster makes media headlines does not determine Tesla, Inc.'s valuation. What determines the valuation is those three old questions: whether FSD can be implemented, whether Robotaxi can scale, and when massive capital expenditure will translate back into cash flow.