CITIC SEC: The development logic of the insurance industry is shifting toward "capital return-driven," and its dividend attributes are further highlighted.

CITIC SEC: The development logic of the insurance industry is shifting toward "capital return-driven," and its dividend attributes are further highlighted. CITIC SEC released a research report stating that on September 10, 2026, the State Council Information Office press conference announced the official introduction of the "15th Five-Year Plan for Building a Financial Power," with relevant heads of four departments interpreting it on the same stage. Financial regulation is advancing along three lines: "clearing out existing risks + capital replenishment + anti-involution." The insurance industry's positioning has been elevated, its tasks refined, and its policy system improved, forming a four-in-one framework of "stabilizing functions, strengthening governance, expanding services, and attracting long-term capital." Short-term premium income in the industry is under pressure, but operational quality and efficiency are expected to continue improving, and the competitive advantages of leading institutions are further highlighted. The development logic is switching from "scale-driven" to "capital return-driven," and the sector is expected to further highlight its dividend attributes beyond its market beta attributes. 1) Main line one: Focus on property and casualty insurance companies with sustained capital returns and strong dividend capacity, and life insurance companies with clear dividend rules and expected increases in dividend levels; 2) Main line two: Focus on large insurance companies with outstanding comprehensive strength and service advantages. The main views of CITIC SEC are as follows: The institutional safeguards for plan implementation have been further improved. On September 10, 2026, the State Council Information Office press conference announced the official introduction of the "15th Five-Year Plan for Building a Financial Power" (hereinafter referred to as the Financial Power Plan), with relevant heads of four departments interpreting it on the same stage. The policy linkage path is: the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee approved the "15th Five-Year Plan" recommendations the National People's Congress approved the "15th Five-Year Plan" outline, and at the same time passed the National Development Planning Law the "15th Five-Year Plan for Building a Financial Power" was formulated in accordance with the outline requirements. The Financial Power Plan is a detailed deployment of the national overall plan in the financial field and will be gradually implemented through departmental supporting policies and regulatory measures. The main highlights are the refinement of goals and the improvement of the regulatory framework. A three-tier system of "outline-plan-action plan" has been formed, clarifying the "two-step" goals for 2030 and 2035, and taking "risk prevention and strong regulation" as an important foundation for promoting high-quality development. Monetary policy has further clarified the de-emphasis on quantitative intermediary targets and the focus on interest rate regulation; the capital market disclosed reform progress data (IPO review of about 6 months, net purchases of A-shares by medium- and long-term funds exceeding RMB 600 billion); financial regulation is advancing along three lines: "clearing out existing risks + capital replenishment + anti-involution." Insurance has achieved elevated positioning, refined tasks, and a systematic set of documents. It is positioned as a four-in-one framework of "stabilizing functions, strengthening governance, expanding services, and attracting long-term capital." At the end of 2025, the average comprehensive solvency ratio of insurance companies was 181.1%, and the overall capital level remained adequate. The tasks cover "integration of reporting and execution," technology insurance, agricultural insurance, pension and health, disaster risk reduction, and inclusive insurance. The 27 policy documents and supporting arrangements since January 2024 cover four types of institutional arrangements and eight business lines, and the linkage of pre-event, in-event, and post-event regulation continues to strengthen. Short-term premium income in the industry is under pressure, operational quality and efficiency are expected to continue improving, and the competitive advantages of leading institutions are further highlighted. The mechanism linking liability-side predetermined interest rates continues to operate, and the research value has recently stabilized and rebounded (1.94% on July 1, 2026), with the dynamic pricing mechanism mitigating the interest spread loss risk of new business; on the expense side, the "integration of reporting and execution" has achieved dual coverage of channels and insurance types; the "Insurance Law" has initiated revision, and the "Measures for the Administration of Asset-Liability Management of Insurance Companies" strengthens quantitative indicator constraints. Short-term premium growth still faces pressure, but in the first half of 2026, the new business value of five listed insurers increased by about 5%-34% year-on-year (most companies achieved double-digit growth). The competitive advantages of leading institutions are expected to be further consolidated, and the industry shows a trend of pressure on scale growth, improvement in operational quality and efficiency, and expected increase in concentration. Risk factors: Decline in long-end interest rates; product and channel transformation falling short of expectations; increased capital constraints; policy implementation effects falling short of expectations; investment income volatility, etc.