CICC: Optical communications boom continues, new technologies accelerate.

CICC released a research report stating that it attended the CIOE China Optical Expo held in Shenzhen from September 9-11. This year's expo was even more popular than previous years, with over 4,000 companies exhibiting and total attendance of nearly 190,000, up 32% year-over-year. During the research at this exhibition, CICC observed that the incremental scenarios for optical communications are expanding from Scale-up/across to Scale-in, and the optical interconnect cycle is expected to continue driving the growth rate of optical communications hardware beyond the industry beta. CICC's main viewpoints are as follows: "Locking orders" and "locking materials" became key themes in exhibition research, with demand certainty for 2027 further improving Based on exhibition research, CICC observed that order schedules for some high-speed optical chip companies have extended to 2028 and beyond, while optical module order visibility covers 2027 and beyond; leading optical module manufacturers are actively locking in core materials such as DSP, mSAP PCB, and high-speed optical chips. CICC expects that future delivery differences will depend more on key material assurance, yield rates, and customer certification, among which advanced-process DSP may become the most supply-constrained segment. Multiple new technologies converge in 2028, smoothly connecting with the high prosperity of 2027 CICC expects that by 2028, NPO is expected to accelerate volume ramp-up after standards and engineering solutions gradually converge and yield rates climb, while CPO may gradually enter Scale-up; OCS is moving from proprietary use by a few cloud vendors to more AI clusters, driving 2.4T lightweight coherent applications downstream; 400G per lane is driving device upgrades, and thin-film lithium niobate is expected to accelerate into customer validation and application windows. The capability boundaries of Chinese companies continue to extend from manufacturing and coupling upstream to chips and platforms In areas such as optical module packaging, precision optical coupling, FAU, and high-density connectivity, Chinese manufacturers have long held advantageous positions. At this exhibition, CICC also observed that domestic capabilities in upstream chips and silicon photonics platforms continue to be supplemented, and the domestic optical ecosystem foundation is continuously strengthening. Risks AI capital expenditure growth slowing down; large model technology development and iteration falling short of expectations.