Preview of US Stock Market | All three major stock index futures fell together; the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose above 5%; crypto stocks declined in premarket trading.

Premarket Market Trends 1. On Tuesday, September 15, in the U.S. premarket session, all three major U.S. stock index futures fell together. As of press time, Dow futures were down 0.27%, S&P 500 futures were down 0.15%, and Nasdaq futures were down 0.07%. 2. As of press time, Germany's DAX index was up 0.01%, the UK's FTSE 100 was down 0.33%, France's CAC 40 was down 0.27%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 was down 0.17%. 3. As of press time, WTI crude oil was up 0.92% at $102.32 per barrel. Brent crude oil was up 0.24% at $105.93 per barrel. Market News The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield broke above 5% to a nearly 20-year high, putting the Federal Reserve's anti-inflation credibility to a major test. As of press time, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stood at 5.007%, having risen as high as 5.047% intraday; the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield stood at 5.373%, having touched 5.400% intraday. Pressure in the bond market has heightened tensions ahead of the Fed's rate decision on Wednesday. Investors expect Fed officials to raise short-term borrowing costs for the first time since July 2023. If the Fed does not hike, or if Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signals that monetary tightening in the coming months will be weaker than what the money market is currently pricing in, bond investors may demand higher yields to protect against inflation risk. BMO Capital Markets strategist Will Hartman said: "If the Fed keeps rates unchanged this week, it will very likely damage its anti-inflation credibility. The market is not only vulnerable to the shock of an unexpected hold, but also to a 'dovish hike'that is, a dot plot or press conference that conveys a more patient signal." PGIM Credit chief global economist Daleep Singh said: "The more the Fed can demonstrate its anti-inflation credibility, the more likely it is to compress the risk premium at the long end of the U.S. Treasury curve over the medium term." Have chip stocks become a "pain trade"? Wall Street turns to betting on the next beneficiary. An AI safety storm has suddenly rewritten Wall Street trading. Investors are recalculating another possibility: if model training slows, the compute trade may cool, while identity management, data governance, and cyber defense instead enter a larger spending cycle? Evercore ISI analyst Kirk Materne believes that no matter how quickly AI agents enter enterprises, they must be protected, governed, and monitored. Therefore, even if AI training slows, structural demand for cybersecurity and some infrastructure software will remain. Jefferies Financial Group Inc. analyst Joseph Gallo expects the agentic AI security market to remain in its early stages, with initial business signals possibly emerging in late 2026 and meaningful revenue contributions more likely after 2027. He believes identity security vendors may be among the earliest beneficiaries, because as AI agents increase, enterprises must control machine identities, access permissions, and the scope of data calls. Bank of America: S&P 500 is forming a bullish flag during consolidation, long-term target still above 8,000 points. Bank of America Corp technical analysts remain bullish on the long-term rally and believe the S&P 500 is likely to rise above 8,000 points, even as a recent series of market and macroeconomic headwinds test investor confidence. After breaking out of a weekly triangle pennant pattern in early August, the benchmark index has successfully reached Bank of America's previously set one-year target of 7,741 points. Technical strategist Paul Ciana noted in a client report that as long as the index holds key support at 7,500 points, the broader uptrend remains intact. Ciana said recent price consolidation is forming a potential bullish flag on the daily chart, and a decisive close above the 7,760 to 7,770 resistance range would confirm the pattern. A successful breakout above that level would reopen upside targets of 8,000 and 8,234 points, with a long-term projection of 8,541 points. Ciana also warned that failure to hold the 7,504 to 7,500 support zone would mark a major technical breakdown and could open an initial pullback to 7,314 to 7,294 points. Continued weakness would increase the risk of a deeper pullback, testing the rising 200-day moving average around 7,200 points, and possibly even the key breakout area at 7,000 points. Fed rate hike approaching, S&P 500 may fall 10%! MRA strategist: there may even be a second wave in December. Macro Risk Advisors LLC said the Fed's rate hike, which could begin as early as this week, may trigger a pullback in the S&P 500, as declining corporate profit margins hit the earnings outlook while the market prepares for a tightening cycle. Founder and CEO Dean Curnutt said that if a hike lands on Wednesday, the market will come under greater pressure. He wrote: "We expect the S&P 500 to pull back 8% to 10%, and a second leg down may appear in December." He said rate hikes will "squeeze the margins of companies that cannot pass on costs," while delivering a volatility shock to a market that is not prepared for it. Curnutt said the current market setup is similar to what investors saw in 2018. At that time, the S&P 500 peaked in September and then plunged a cumulative 10% in October and November. Curnutt warned that "the Santa rally did not appear" that year, and the market suffered another decline in December, ultimately falling nearly 20% from its peak. Has the "copper rush" cooled? LME sees largest delivery in nearly four weeks, copper prices retreat to $14,000. Copper prices have fallen sharply since surging to a record high last week. At that time, traders diverted supply to the United States ahead of expected tariffs on refined copper, causing shortages in the rest of the world. But so far, the tariff measure has not materialized. As of press time, London Metal Exchange (LME) copper futures were at $14,030 per ton. On Monday, LME warehouses received their largest copper delivery in nearly four weeks. Three-month copper switched to a premium of $85.75 per ton over cash copper, a market structure known as "contango," which usually indicates ample supply. Individual Stock News Musk fuels speculation of a Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) and SpaceX (SPCX.US) merger, "hinting" at action amid "close cooperation." Tesla, Inc. and SpaceX shares edged higher in Tuesday premarket trading after CEO Elon Musk refused to rule out a merger between the two companies, reigniting speculation that has spread from retail investors to Wall Street. Asked at the All-In Summit why Tesla, Inc. and SpaceX remain separate despite increasingly close ties, Musk called it a "good question" and suggested the relationship could eventually prompt action. Musk said: "With all this cooperation on so many levels, when there is such close cooperation across so many areas, who can imagine what action might be taken." Broadcom Inc. (AVGO.US) CEO pushes back on the "AI brake" theory: AI semiconductor revenue target unchanged, aiming for $230 billion in 2028. The debate over whether development of frontier AI models should be slowed continues to simmer across the industry. After NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) CEO Jensen Huang directly opposed the "AI brake" view at an event, Broadcom Inc. CEO Hock Tan also sought to play down related concerns. In a recent interview, Hock Tan responded to concerns that a slowdown in frontier AI model development could affect the chipmaker's business, stressing that the company remains committed to its long-term revenue targets. Speaking at the All-In Summit in Los Angeles on Monday while discussing AI safety with the host, Huang explicitly rejected predictions that AI could destroy the world, saying such claims have "no scientific basis." A week earlier, Huang also made a sharp remark: panic over AI safety may simply be creating business opportunities for the cybersecurity industry"what better way to create demand than to create a problem?" Micron (MU.US) AI profit-sharing battle escalates? Taiwan labor union threatens strike, HBM supply may raise alarm. A Taiwan labor union representing Micron Technology, Inc. employees warned on Tuesday that it may move toward a strike unless the U.S. memory chipmaker agrees to establish a permanent profit-sharing system, further escalating a labor dispute at its largest manufacturing hub. The union said it is seeking a long-term, transparent, and verifiable profit-sharing system rather than one-time bonuses, and reiterated its demand that 15% of Micron's operating profit be distributed to employees worldwide. Taiwan is a key production center for Micron's DRAM and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips, which are core components of AI servers. Although no strike has been announced and production has not been affected, any labor action could intensify supply concerns in an already tight memory chip market. Key procedural vote on the CLARITY Act imminent! Circle (CRCL.US), Coinbase (COIN.US), and other crypto stocks fell in premarket trading. As of press time, in Tuesday's U.S. premarket session, Circle and Coinbase fell nearly 5%, while Strategy (MSTR.US) fell nearly 4%. It is reported that the U.S. Senate is scheduled to hold a key procedural vote at 2:15 p.m. Eastern Time on Tuesday on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY Act), requiring at least 60 votes to advance. The bill aims to build a new regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies and other digital assets. Republicans currently hold 53 seats, so the outcome will depend on Democrats. However, crypto reporter Eleanor Terrett posted on X on Monday that a group of Senate Democrats will meet that evening to discuss a counterproposal. Rocket Lab (RKLB.US) CFO: Acquiring Iridium Communications Inc. (IRDM.US) will "double the company overnight," with more deals possibly to follow. Rocket Lab expects its proposed acquisition of Iridium Communications Inc. to double the company's size "overnight." As the space company prepares to use the deal as a springboard to further expand orbital applications and constellation operations, its broader expansion plans are also unfolding. CFO Adam Spice said during World Space Business Week that Iridium Communications Inc. will fill the missing link in the company's transformation from a launch services provider to a fully integrated space operator. He said Rocket Lab's "very healthy market capitalization" helped the company pursue the acquisition of a company almost as large as itself. In turn, continued execution of the company's strategy should also allow Rocket Lab to keep accessing financing for internal investment and future deals. As of press time, Rocket Lab rose more than 2% in Tuesday's U.S. premarket session. Key Economic Data and Event Preview 20:30 Beijing Time: U.S. September New York Fed manufacturing index Earnings Preview Wednesday morning: Trip.com Group Ltd. Sponsored ADR (TCOM.US)