Deloitte: Raises Hong Kong's 2026 retail sales forecast to HK$412 billion, up 8.4% year-on-year.

Hong Kong's retail market performed stronger than expected in the first half of 2026, with sales of approximately HK$203 billion, up 9.7% year-on-year. Benefiting from the strong growth momentum in the first half, Deloitte China has raised its full-year 2026 Hong Kong retail sales forecast to HK$412 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.4%, and expects growth of 7% in the second half. Ricky Cheng, Deloitte China's Consumer Market Business Leader in Hong Kong, said that looking ahead, improvements in Hong Kong's property market are expected to continue enhancing the spending power of local high-net-worth individuals, and coupled with a dense schedule of major events and festive activities, this is expected to attract more international visitors to Hong Kong, further stimulating consumption. Deloitte China expects growth across major retail categories for the full year. Jewellery, watches and precious gifts are projected to reach HK$60 billion (up 15.4%); clothing and footwear to reach HK$50 billion (up 16.3%); medicines and cosmetics to reach HK$40 billion (up 11.1%); and durable consumer goods to reach HK$68 billion (up 15.3%). High-value consumer goods categories stand to benefit most from the tourism recovery and the wealth effect, while cross-border spending by mainland visitors supports growth in medicines, cosmetics and durable consumer goods. Deloitte said full-year visitor arrivals to Hong Kong are expected to increase 18% to 59 million, of which 46 million will come from mainland China. Ricky Cheng believes that to translate first-half growth into sustained momentum, retailers should focus on three strategic priorities: democratization of luxury, enhancing customer value, and optimizing cross-border pricing. Michael Hu, Deloitte China's Strategic Client Services Leader, said China is expected to continue maintaining its leading position in the global luxury market in 2026. 19.3% of surveyed executives expect China to become a major DRIVE of luxury consumption, highlighting its structural growth momentum amid increasingly mature consumers.