Seven years earlier than Wall Street's boldest predictions! Musk personally "corrects" Morgan Stanley: SpaceX (SPCX.US) will achieve annual revenue of $3.5 trillion by 2033.

After Morgan Stanley's high-profile bullish outlook on SpaceX (SPCX.US), Elon Musk has recently stepped in personally, presenting a timeline that is even more aggressive than Wall Street's predictions. Musk stated on social media platform X that SpaceX could achieve approximately $3.5 trillion in annual revenue around 2033, about seven years earlier than Morgan Stanley's forecast of 2040. It is reported that Morgan Stanley reaffirmed its "overweight" rating and a target price of $300 for SpaceX shares, predicting that the company's revenue will reach $3.5 trillion by 2040. Star analyst Adam Jonas believes that investors still do not fully understand the grand plans SpaceX has surrounding its Starship rocket and the new launch site in Louisiana. With the current stock price near its IPO level, it actually presents a "unique opportunity." "Investors are not aware of the scale of SpaceX's Starship program." The origin of the matter lies in a Morgan Stanley investor report. In a report released on Wednesday, Jonas wrote, "We do not believe investors fully appreciate the scale of SpaceX's plans with Starship." This report follows SpaceX's announcement that it will invest $100 billion to construct a new "Starbase" in Louisiana. According to disclosures, SpaceX plans to build a new Starship launch site in Vermilion Parish, Louisiana. Construction is expected to begin in 2027, with the first Starship launch scheduled for 2029. The base is planned to ultimately feature 15 launch pads, a significant increase from the 3 currently operated by SpaceX; by the end of 2027, an additional 3 launch pads are expected to be fully operational. Jonas believes that the scale of this expansion itself indicates that the market is not adequately pricing in SpaceX's launch cadence. Morgan Stanley's model currently conservatively assumes that each launch pad will execute only 2 launches per day. At this pace, by 2040, SpaceX would conduct approximately 5,800 Starship launches annually, which would theoretically only require 8 launch pads, less than the planned 15. In other words, even if the Louisiana base is not fully completed, SpaceX would still be capable of achieving Morgan Stanley's launch forecast for 2040. Jonas also particularly pointed out that the geographical location of Louisiana offers unique advantages. The base allows rockets to fly south over the Gulf of Mexico during launches, without passing through densely populated areas as would be the case with launches from Florida, Texas, or California. This enables SpaceX to expand its capabilities to launch into "Dawn-Dusk Sun-Synchronous Orbits," which is "directly related to orbital calculations." In Jonas's view, this is part of the long-term narrative linking SpaceX's space launches, Starlink communications, and AI computing power. Musk responds to Morgan Stanley: My best guess is 2033. On the X platform, user "DogeDesigner" subsequently shared a report from the firm, highlighting in a tweet that SpaceX's "valuation is attractive" and suggesting that investors are underestimating the potential scale of Starship. Aaron Burnett, CEO of investment firm Mach 33, then retweeted and commented that Morgan Stanley's estimate is "only about half of the companys publicly stated target and ten years later than the company's own timeline." This comment prompted a response from Musk himself. He wrote, "In my view, the date to reach about $3.5 trillion in revenue is likely around 2033." This suggests that Musk believes SpaceX will reach the $3.5 trillion revenue scale seven years earlier than Morgan Stanley's prediction. Notably, Musk had previously publicly predicted that SpaceX would achieve $1 trillion in revenue by 2030. Musk's response further underscores the disparity between SpaceX's internal goals and Wall Street's models. According to SpaceX's own plans, the company even aims to achieve 10,000 Starship launches annually by 2030. This goal is partially driven by a new space policy from former President Trump, aimed at increasing NASA's launch frequency. From Starship to K3 civilization: Musk's broader narrative. In addition to direct revenue forecasts, Musk has painted a grander picture through the Louisiana Starbase project. He stated that the base will enable Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US)'s Optimus humanoid robot to become the worlds first "von Neumann machine." In Musk's narrative, the development of the Starship and its launch infrastructure promoted by SpaceX will aid in "the expansion of civilization throughout the galaxy to reach a K3 level." "Von Neumann machines" typically refer to systems capable of self-replication, and Musk links this concept with Optimus and Starship's large-scale launch capabilities, suggesting that humanity could use Starship to send manufacturing capabilities into space, achieving extraterrestrial self-replication and expansion. K3 refers to the third tier of the Kardashev scale, representing civilizations capable of harnessing the energy of an entire galaxy. This wording continues Musk's consistent portrayal of SpaceX as a company "enabling humanity to become a multiplanetary species" or even an "interstellar civilization." In terms of short-term launch cadence, SpaceX is indeed rapidly advancing Starship testing. Musk revealed that the upcoming 14th flight test of Starship will attempt to capture the rocket's upper stage. If successful, it would mark another significant breakthrough for SpaceX in the realm of fully reusable rockets following the booster capture. Stock price still below peak, clear divergence between bulls and bears. Morgan Stanley has set a target price of $300 for SpaceX, which corresponds to approximately 114% upside based on Thursday's closing price. Jonas believes that, according to the firm's fiscal 2028 forecasts, SpaceX's stock price equates to only a 10x price-to-sales ratio (reflecting a 70% growth rate) and a 25x EBITDA ratio (reflecting a 113% growth rate). "We believe investors have a unique opportunity to 'reassess' SPCX stock near the IPO price, and the fundamentals in the realms of space, connectivity, and corporate AI are even stronger," Jonas wrote. Since going public, SpaceX shares have struggled in performance. The stock reached a market capitalization of over $1 trillion on its first day of trading, but has since fallen from its peak and is currently near the IPO price. Following the recent release of its second-quarter financial report, the stock came under further pressure due to increased capital expenditure guidance. However, Jonas indicated that Morgan Stanley's outlook on SpaceX has significantly improved after the earnings report since investors obtained more information about the impact of the lockup expiration, which did not lead to the sustained selling pressure that many had feared. Jonas has previously suggested that SpaceX is a "potential generational compound growth stock." In his $300 target price, more than half comes from the AI ambitions implied by the companys merger with xAI, while the rest is contributed by launch services and Starlink satellite internet business. However, not everyone in the market shares this optimistic view. Billionaire hedge fund manager David Einhorn recently expressed a bearish position on SpaceX in a letter to investors, arguing that Musk's rocket and AI company is overvalued.