Dongxing: The competitive landscape of the express delivery industry remains stable, and this year the efforts to combat involution are expected to exceed expectations in both intensity and sustainability.

Dongxing released a research report stating that, by July 2026, the national express delivery service companies are expected to complete approximately 17.08 billion packages, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.1%, slightly up from 3.8% in the previous month. Among these, the volume of same-city deliveries fell by 6.9% year-on-year, while intercity deliveries saw a year-on-year increase of 5.3%. The bank believes that the industry's efforts to counter internal competition this year are likely to exceed expectations in both intensity and sustainability, and the short-term fluctuations in per-package pricing do not change the long-term positive trend for the industry. The main points from Dongxing are as follows: Slight increase in year-on-year growth rate of package volume In July, the national express service companies completed approximately 17.08 billion packages, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%, with a slight increase from 3.8% in the previous month. The volume of same-city deliveries fell 6.9% year-on-year, while intercity deliveries rose by 5.3%. Overall, the growth rate of package volume in the industry showed a slight increase in July. Shentong continues to lead in growth; Yuantong's growth rate has slightly improved; and Yunda has maintained a year-on-year growth rate close to 0 since May. Overall, the industry landscape in July did not change significantly from June. Shentong's per-package revenue decreased month-on-month, while Yunda showed a slight increase In terms of pricing, in July 2026, the industrys per-package price increased by 3.8% year-on-year, maintaining stability in year-on-year indicators. Month-on-month, the average price in July slightly dropped compared to June, mainly due to seasonal impacts. Within the Tongda group, Shentongs per-package revenue increased 4.6% year-on-year, with the growth rate narrowing; Yunda saw a year-on-year increase of 12.0%, with an improvement in growth rate; and Yuantong experienced a 1.0% year-on-year decrease, with a narrowing of the decline. Month-on-month, Shentong's per-package revenue decreased by 0.05 yuan, showing a more notable decline; Yunda increased by 0.03 yuan, while Yuantong remained flat month-on-month. Competitive landscape remains stable in the context of countering internal competition The industry briefly showed intensified price competition from April to May; however, regulatory authorities have maintained a high level of oversight, which has led to a subsequent decline in competitive intensity. Currently, the level of competition in the industry is manageable. Shentong and Yuantong continue to seek to increase their market share, while Yunda focuses on stabilizing its existing customer base. Based on the changes in package volume growth rate and per-package revenue over recent months, the bank found that if companies want to increase their share in the short term, a noticeable decline in their monthly per-package revenue will also be evident, indicating that the cost of competing for market share is rising. The bank believes this reflects a shift in the industry from a growth market to a stock market in the context of counteracting internal competition, as the cost of competing for existing customers is clearly higher than that for new customers. This also means that the importance of existing customers has significantly increased. Risk warnings: Intensification of industry price wars; duration of countering internal competition lower than expected; rising labor costs; policy changes, etc.