Elon Musk may push for a merger between SpaceX (SPCX.US) and Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US)? Predictions from the market place the probability of this happening before 2028 at 71%.

Recently, speculation regarding the merger of Elon Musk's two core companiesTesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) and Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) (SPCX.US)has been intensifying, leading to a surge in betting capital in the market. According to prediction platform Polymarket on the Polygon chain, the market currently believes that there is a 55% probability of the two companies merging officially by December 31, 2027. However, expectations for a merger to be completed by the end of 2026 have significantly cooled, with the probability dropping sharply from a peak of 57% in May to 20% at the time of writing. Another prediction market, Kalshi, stated on the X platform that the probability of a merger occurring before 2028 is at 65%. As of the time of writing, that figure has further risen to 71%. The " Century Merger" Anticipated by the Market Rumors surrounding the potential consolidation of Musk's most influential companies have become increasingly dense on Wall Street recently. During the second-quarter earnings call last month, Musk was asked about the possibility of a merger but did not directly deny it. The world's richest man merely stated that cooperation between the two companies is deepening but added that the earnings call is not the suitable occasion to discuss such matters, insisting that "proper procedures must be followed." In July, JPMorgan noted that discussions regarding the merger have become more pragmatic and believed that SpaceXs record-breaking IPO would be one of the biggest catalysts driving the Tesla, Inc.-SpaceX merger process. Earlier this year, Joe Lonsdale, co-founder of Palantir Technologies (PLTR.US), also stated that significant synergies exist among Musk's various enterprises, which "will inevitably lead to collaboration on multiple levels." Musk is not new to driving mergers and restructurings of his companies. Earlier this year, SpaceX acquired AI startup xAI in an all-stock transaction; in 2025, he plans to integrate the social media platform X into the xAI framework. On Monday, during regular trading hours, SpaceXs stock price rose by 4.45% to $146.23, but fell by 1.4% in after-hours trading. Tesla, Inc. closed down 0.87% at $339.40 on the same day.