Overnight US stocks | The probability of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September has dropped to below 40%, the S&P 500 Index has reached a new all-time high, and SanDisk (SNDK.US) has surged over 13%.

On Thursday, the three major indices rose, with the S&P 500 Index reaching an all-time high after two consecutive days of gains. The U.S. July PPI year-on-year recorded 4.7%, the lowest since March, falling short of market expectations of 4.9%. Following the release of this data, the implied probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in September dropped to below 40%. U.S. StocksAt the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 69.72 points, an increase of 0.13%, closing at 53,839.99 points; the Nasdaq Composite rose by 214.54 points, an increase of 0.81%, closing at 26,803.03 points; the S&P 500 Index rose by 50.49 points, an increase of 0.65%, closing at 7,798.99 points. Micron Technology, Inc. (MU.US) rose by 4%, SanDisk (SNDK.US) rose by 13.6%, and SK Hynix (SKHY.US) rose by 7%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell by 1.85%, with Alibaba Group Holding Limited Sponsored ADR (BABA.US) down by 2%. European StocksThe German DAX 30 Index fell by 37.69 points, a decline of 0.14%, closing at 26,308.60 points; the UK FTSE 100 Index fell by 63.95 points, a decline of 0.59%, closing at 10,769.20 points; the French CAC 40 Index fell by 24.38 points, a decline of 0.28%, closing at 8,650.56 points; the Euro Stoxx 50 Index rose by 13.96 points, an increase of 0.21%, closing at 6,547.95 points; the Spanish IBEX 35 Index fell by 25.25 points, a decline of 0.12%, closing at 20,179.15 points; the Italian FTSE MIB Index rose by 26.34 points, an increase of 0.05%, closing at 53,725.00 points. Asian MarketsThe Nikkei 225 Index rose by 1.16%, and the Korea Composite Stock Price Index rose by 3.56%. U.S. Dollar IndexThe dollar index, which measures the dollar against six major currencies, fell by 0.05% on the day, closing at 99.964. As of the close of trading in New York, 1 euro exchanged for 1.1529 US dollars, up from 1.1521 US dollars the previous trading day; 1 pound exchanged for 1.3485 US dollars, down from 1.3488 US dollars the previous trading day. 1 US dollar exchanged for 159.51 Japanese yen, up from 159.49 yen the previous trading day; 1 US dollar exchanged for 0.8139 Swiss francs, up from 0.8137 Swiss francs the previous trading day; 1 US dollar exchanged for 1.3936 Canadian dollars, down from 1.3947 Canadian dollars the previous trading day; 1 US dollar exchanged for 9.5684 Swedish kronor, down from 9.5858 kronor the previous trading day. CryptocurrencyBitcoin remained stable, trading at 63,546.55 US dollars as of the time of writing; Ethereum held steady at 0.7%, trading at 1,891.51 US dollars. Crude OilLight crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by 2.02 dollars, closing at 81.25 dollars per barrel, a decline of 2.43%; October delivery Brent crude oil futures fell by 1.91 dollars, closing at 87.07 dollars per barrel, a decline of 2.15%. Precious MetalsSpot gold traded at 4,350.54 dollars; spot silver traded at 64.377 dollars. Macro News U.S. mortgage rates fell slightly for the first time in six weeks. Freddie Mac indicated that the average rate for 30-year fixed mortgages in the U.S. decreased from 6.69% the previous week to 6.67%, ending five consecutive weeks of increases, although it remains at its highest level in over a year. The latest data shows that the U.S. job market is cooling, and the impact of the Iran war on inflation may be less than previously expected. In July, the increase in U.S. prices slowed for the second consecutive month, with energy, gasoline, and food prices all decreasing from the previous month, while core inflation fell to a five-year low. Combined with the employment report, the market believes that U.S. economic data is easing pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise rates in the coming months, with investors expecting the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September to drop from 48% to 38%. However, the stagnation in negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz raises concerns about maintaining high oil prices, and high rates and economic uncertainty continue to suppress real estate demand. Data shows that U.S. housing sales in July decreased by 4.1% compared to June, reaching the lowest level in nearly two years. Trump imposes a 100% tariff on specific drone imports. The White House issued a statement on the 13th local time, stating that Trump signed a proclamation in response to the national security threat posed by imported drones and related parts, which includes strengthening the U.S. drone industry and supply chains. The proclamation imposes a 100% ad valorem tariff on drones of specific sizes or with sensitive performance characteristics, including drones that exceed 25 kilograms of maximum takeoff weight and those with thermal imaging capabilities; drones that are smaller and lack specific capabilities, as well as other drone components, will have a 25% ad valorem tariff. The proclamation stipulates a 15% ad valorem tariff on drones and components from the EU, Japan, Liechtenstein, South Korea, and Switzerland; and a 10% tariff on drones from the UK, provided that the majority of their hardware, software, and technology is sourced from the aforementioned countries and regions, as well as the U.S. The tariffs will take effect 21 days after the announcement is signed. For drone components that do not fall into the highly sensitive category, tariffs will take effect 180 days after the announcement is signed. The Federal Reserve pauses Treasury buying operations aimed at managing reserve levels. On Thursday, the Federal Reserve announced that it will pause Treasury purchases for the next month aimed at managing bank reserve levels (RMP), indicating that the size of bank reserves has reached what the Federal Reserve considers an acceptable level. The New York Fed stated that RMP purchases will be paused during the operation window ending September 14 but will continue with approximately 17 billion dollars of maturing principal reinvestment. This move shows that, despite an increase in the U.S. government's cash balance potentially imposing some pressure on market liquidity, the Federal Reserve remains confident in the stable operation of the financing market. For much of July, the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) was below the interest on reserves balance (IORB); as of August 12, the SOFR settlement rate was 3.62%, three basis points lower than IORB. The Federal Reserve emphasized that this adjustment only pertains to reserve management operations and does not represent a change in monetary policy stance or balance sheet strategy. U.S. initial jobless claims rise slightly; stability in the labor market requires more data verification. Initial claims for unemployment benefits in the U.S. rose after hovering near historical lows. The U.S. Department of Labor reported on Thursday that for the week ending August 8, initial claims for unemployment benefits increased by 9,000 to 209,000. The median forecast among economists was 202,000 claims. The increase in claims may reflect typical seasonal volatility during the summer, when seasonal employment patterns and holiday scheduling often affect the data. Economists are awaiting more weeks of data to reassess the recent stability in the labor market. Federal Reserve's Harker: The Fed must raise rates now. Federal Reserve official Harker stated recently, "The Fed must raise rates now because the current policy is not restrictive, and inflation is rising under recent shocks. Rapid growth could put additional pressure on prices. While rate hikes could bring some pain, we cannot let the economy grow too quickly to the point of overheating. Current inflation is widespread, not limited to certain sectors. It is very important for the Federal Reserve to be accountable for inflation data." Individual Stock News Reports suggest Workday (WDAY.US) is in talks with Silver Lake for acquisition, with stock price soaring nearly 30%. Following news of Silver Lake's acquisition of Workday, the company's stock price surged nearly 30% during Thursday's trading, triggering several temporary suspensions. Insiders stated that discussions between the two sides have been underway for some time. After the announcement, Workday's market value reached 50 billion dollars. Previously, there were concerns in the market that artificial intelligence would reshape the software industry landscape, which had put pressure on Workday's stock price for a long time. If this acquisition goes through, it could signify a renewed interest in software assets among capital investors. Jefferies Financial Group Inc. analyst Till believes that Workday's current CEO, Boosley, has a close relationship with Silver Lake, making the deal feasible. Fundamentally, Workday's Q1 report exceeded expectations and raised its guidance, with the company stating that trends related to artificial intelligence are bringing substantial benefits. Alphabet Inc. Class C (GOOG.US, GOOGL.US) releases Gemini 3.7 Flash, but flagship model remains distant. Alphabet Inc. Class C released a new generation of its flagship AI model, Gemini 3.7 Flash, focusing on improving code generation and debugging capabilities, but the flagship model Gemini 3.5 Pro still has no definitive release timetable and has been delayed multiple times due to unmet R&D progress expectations. Alphabet Inc. Class C stated that Gemini 3.7 Flash can generate code that better meets production environment deployment requirements upon first generation, reducing the need for developers to make repeated modifications while lowering inference costs. The new model will also support the AI productivity assistant Gemini Spark and introduce safety protections against malicious attacks as well as potential misuse risks in the chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear fields. However, the rapid iteration of the Flash series has not alleviated market concerns about Alphabet Inc. Class C's AI competitiveness, and the continued delay of Gemini 3.5 Pro has drawn investor attention to the company's AI roadmap execution. Alphabet Inc. Class C CEO Pichai stated that the company is accelerating model iterations and has allocated substantial computing resources for the next-generation Gemini 4 model. Anthropic holds private meetings with investors before IPO; 2 trillion-dollar valuation is an unofficial target. AI unicorn Anthropic is preparing for a potentially record-scale IPO and has been holding preliminary communication meetings with potential investors. According to insiders, discussions are still at a macro level and have not involved specific financial data or valuation discussions. Anthropic's Chief Financial Officer, Krishnan Rao, is leading these meetings, which mainly revolve around the Claude series of AI models, the programming assistant Claude Code, market positioning, the management team, and product iteration. The company submitted IPO documents confidentially to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in June but has not announced a formal IPO timetable. Anthropic completed financing at the end of May, achieving a valuation of 965 billion dollars, surpassing OpenAI's 852 billion dollars at the same time; the company disclosed an annualized revenue run rate exceeding 47 billion dollars. Some investors expect its IPO valuation could reach 2 trillion dollars, but this figure is not an official target of the company. In terms of competition, OpenAI has also submitted IPO documents confidentially but has not yet initiated pre-IPO investor meetings. Reportedly, OpenAI's annual revenue exceeds 40 billion dollars. Insiders revealed that OpenAI's current annualized revenue has surpassed 40 billion dollars, nearly double its 2025 year-end projection. This performance significantly boosts the company's confidence in preparing for its IPO. In recent months, the company's revenue growth has accelerated, largely driven by rapid expansion in AI programming software business. Additionally, subscription sales have continued to improve, and ad revenue has started to contribute incremental income, while the core consumer business has remained robust. In terms of competition, OpenAI is fiercely competing with Anthropic for enterprise clients. Both companies have secretly submitted IPO documents, with Anthropic anticipated to IPO as early as this fall, potentially ahead of OpenAI. OpenAI co-founder and President Greg Brockman stated that the company saw a month-over-month increase of over 20% in annualized revenue in July. Recently, there has been a notable increase in demand for AI agents, with representative products including the programming tool Codex and the general assistant ChatGPT Work. Additionally, OpenAI has reduced prices on some models to respond more flexibly to the challenges posed by Anthropic and numerous competitors.