The price of polycrystalline silicon has not seen transactions for two consecutive weeks, while the midstream has already begun to hear "continuous price hikes." The transmission of photovoltaic prices is facing a critical test.

After the release of the "General Principles of Cost Accounting Model for the Photovoltaic Industry," the entire photovoltaic sector is entering a transitional period of price restructuring. Data from the Silicon Industry Branch over the past two weeks shows that transactions for polysilicon have remained stagnant, with companies generally suspending formal quotations while waiting for clearer market signals. Lv Jinbiao, a specially invited new energy expert from the Tsinghua Suzhou Institute of Environment, told a reporter from Cai Lian She that the statistical caliber of the Silicon Industry Branch pertains to bulk transactions based on long-term delivery. Currently, small transactions still exist in the market, and internal self-use material input is being normally advanced. Wang Zhichao, an analyst from the New Energy Division of Shanghai Ganglian E-Commerce Holdings, mentioned in an interview with a reporter from Cai Lian She that since the industry clarified the logic of complete cost accounting, polysilicon companies have successively suspended issuing official quotations, relying primarily on verbal tentative pricing. A reporter from Cai Lian She learned from industry chain insiders that although the pricing on the polysilicon side has yet to be clarified, the midstream silicon wafer and solar cell segments have already begun to raise prices, and the top-down price transmission is facing a crucial test. Personnel from GCL TECH (03800) indicated to the reporter that the core of this round of industry behavior is to implement regulatory requirements and uphold the legal operating bottom line, rather than simply making spontaneous price increases; representatives from leading module companies stated that the recovery of profitability in the industry chain and the stabilization of prices ultimately require support from end-user demand. Recently, multiple provinces have adjusted the mechanized electricity price for 2027, along with the in-depth exploration of scene value, which has also brought positive expectations for demand recovery. No transaction prices for polysilicon have occurred for two consecutive weeks. The Silicon Industry Branch published a weekly report last week (August 5) stating that the polysilicon market has generally fallen into a wait-and-see attitude, and this week it continued to point out that the domestic polysilicon market's wait-and-see stance persists, with bulk transactions still stagnating and no orders completed throughout the week. The report noted that against the backdrop of the industry strengthening price self-discipline and maintaining orderly competition within the industrial chain, polysilicon companies are mostly maintaining a pause on quotations, waiting for further clarification of market signals. The market is currently in a transitional phase of price restructuring, with all parties observing the effects of industry norms and the operation of the industrial chain, awaiting the gradual formation of new consensus on transactions. Regarding the statistical caliber of the transaction stagnation, Lv Jinbiao explained to a reporter from Cai Lian She that the Silicon Industry Branch only counts bulk transactions based on long-term deliveries from each company, while small transactions are still occurring in the market. Currently, polysilicon production is normal, and some companies are delivering materials for internal use. The wait-and-see sentiment on the quotation side is directly related to the industry-wide shift to complete cost accounting. Wang Zhichao mentioned to the reporter that after clarifying the complete cost logic, companies have gradually suspended their quotations; recently, companies have only provided verbal or tentative pricing and have not issued formal quotation documents to downstream buyers. The reason is that each company is verifying its true complete costs, and discussions on some implementation details are still ongoing; polysilicon companies prefer to wait for clearer conditions before making decisions. It is understood that complete cost accounting includes depreciation items, which are directly related to the operating level of each company. Theoretically, the higher the operating rate, the lower the unit allocation cost. The core background of the industrys shift in pricing logic is the clarification of regulatory rules. A reporter from Cai Lian She learned from GCL TECH that previously, the Market Supervision Administration held a special meeting for the photovoltaic industry chain, clearly delineating the red line for price operations, stating that malicious dumping below cost would trigger regular law enforcement, and that violating low-price sales is no longer solely a matter of industry self-discipline but is considered an infringement of the Price Law, with clear regulatory standards and enforcement constraints to eliminate paper proposals from an institutional standpoint. It has been revealed that the bottom-line accounting for this industry operation refers to the unified cost accounting standards issued by industry associations, with each company calculating its cost bottom line based on the actual production operation data from its independent legal person factories, rather than having a one-size-fits-all unified fixed guiding price across the entire industry. Silicon wafer prices rose for the first time in two consecutive increases. What level polysilicon prices will recover to primarily depends on when the polysilicon market resumes substantial transactions. Lv Jinbiao analyzed that this does not depend on the polysilicon inventory, but rather on when a downstream company exhausts its last inventory; at that time, as soon as a downstream enterprise runs out of material and is forced to procure, polysilicon companies will resume sales at prices above complete costs. Industry analysts believe that polysilicon companies strictly adhering to the cost bottom line do not necessarily mean that the polysilicon price war has reached its ultimate bottom. The core behavior of the industry is not companies spontaneously raising or stabilizing prices, but rather the entire industrial chain implementing regulatory requirements and adhering to the legal operating bottom line. It is worth noting that although a new transaction consensus has yet to form on the polysilicon side, the midstream silicon wafer and solar cell segments have already started to adjust prices, and the price transmission chain within the industrial chain is gradually being established. According to survey data from Mysteel, on August 13 at noon, silicon wafer companies updated their quotations, with the price of full-sized silicon wafers increasing by another 0.22 RMB/piece, with the 183N quoted at 1.12 RMB/piece, a rise of 0.22 RMB/piece compared to the previous period; the 210RN quoted at 1.22 RMB/piece, also up by 0.22 RMB/piece; and the 210N quoted at 1.42 RMB/piece, again up by 0.22 RMB/piece. The day before, some silicon wafer companies had already first adjusted the prices of various specifications of silicon wafers, with the prices for 183N/210RN/210N reported at 0.9/1.0/1.2 RMB/piece, with the increases exceeding prior tentative adjustments. Wang Zhichao mentioned to a reporter from Cai Lian She that transactions for the new price of 183 specifications have already occurred, with that price corresponding to a rise of approximately 5000-6000 RMB/ton in polysilicon prices; if calculated based on the polysilicon price of 32,000 RMB/ton at the end of July, it indicates that polysilicon prices will rebound to above 37,000 RMB/ton. He predicts that silicon wafer companies will set prices based on the increase in polysilicon prices, and if polysilicon companies continue to raise their quotes, silicon wafer prices will also be adjusted upwards in tandem. Expectations for upstream price increases are growing, and the solar cell segment has also begun initiating price adjustments. Data from Infolink indicates that this week, N-type solar cell prices have increased, with average prices for 183N, 210RN, and 210N rising to 0.29, 0.28, and 0.285 RMB per watt respectively, each with an increase of over 7%. The institution analyzed that, due to rising costs in the upstream sector and silver prices, as well as stocking demands following the announcement of the U.S. 232 policy, the upward trend in solar cell prices in August has basically been established. Industry insiders expect that achieving price stability will still require expanding domestic demand. Although there is a chorus of "price increases" from upstream, there is a general sense of caution regarding whether this can be effectively passed on to the module segment, which ultimately bears the "cost" for the photovoltaic stations. Several representatives from leading module companies expressed to reporters from Cai Lian She that recent prices for modules have not undergone significant adjustments, with some changes in TOPCon module prices mainly being corrections for previous excessive drops, having limited actual impact. Considering that the fourth quarter is the traditional peak season, there is still space for price increases in modules. A certain degree of an increase from downstream is essential, but whether any transactions can be realized and what the final landed price will be remains uncertain, said a representative from a module company. Lv Jinbiao analyzed that if price increases upstream cannot be smoothly transmitted downstream, the industrial chain will reconstruct the supply-demand balance by actively adjusting production loads; if price transmission continues to face obstacles, the entire industrial chain will gradually lower operating loads until the supply scale matches terminal demand, rather than continuing to sell at prices below costs. He believes that under the clear regulation that the entire industrial chain cannot sell below cost, combined with companies' own operational constraints, there is no space for long-term loss-making operations in the industry anymore, and low prices cannot effectively stimulate demand. Wang Zhichao also believes that prices along the industrial chain can be adjusted simultaneously with price increases, but terminal yield is the core constraint. In the short term, it still depends on whether prices can be smoothly transmitted, while in the medium to long term, it relies on the effectiveness of expanding domestic demand. However, positive signals from the demand side are beginning to emerge. Representatives from a module company indicated to a reporter from Cai Lian She that multiple provinces have completed competitive bidding for the mechanized electricity prices of new energy projects for 2027. From the final clearing results, the bottom-line electricity price levels determined this round have shown a noticeable increase compared to bidding results in the same period of 2026, which will enhance the investment motivation in photovoltaic projects. Moreover, the explosive growth of AI computing power driving data center photovoltaic installations, BIPV building integration, and the collaborative solutions for energy storage and consumption issues are also viewed as potential growth points for stimulating domestic demand and supporting smooth price transmission. This article is reproduced from "Cai Lian She," author: Liu Mengran; GMTEight editor: Feng Qiuyi.