Hong Kong Stock Concept Tracking | Global shipping giant Maersk raises performance outlook as the container shipping market experiences a phase of supply-demand rebalancing (with related stocks)

On August 13, global shipping giant Maersk announced its Q2 2026 financial report. Benefiting from robust market demand, rising spot freight rates, and comprehensive growth across various business segments, the company showed strong performance in the second quarter. Based on the actual performance in Q2 and a higher "visibility" regarding business conditions for the remainder of the year, the company announced an upward revision of its full-year guidance and projected approximately 4% growth in the global container shipping market volume for 2026. During the reporting period, the company's revenue grew by 20% year-on-year, increasing from $13.1 billion to $15.8 billion. The shipping business was the main driver of this growth, with revenue increasing by $2 billion. Specifically, revenue from the shipping business rose by 23%, with earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) of $935 million, significantly higher than the $229 million of the same period last year; this figure was -$192 million in Q1 2026. Notably, the volume of loaded cargo increased by 4.1%, mainly driven by exports from Asia, while the average freight rate rose by 22%. The vessel utilization rate remained high at 96%. Maersk also announced an upward revision of its full-year performance guidance for 2026, estimating EBITDA for the year at $10.5 billion to $12.5 billion, up from previous estimates of $8 billion to $10 billion; EBIT is expected to be between $4.5 billion and $6.5 billion, revised from earlier projections of $2 billion to $4 billion. Additionally, data released by China COSCO Shipping Group indicates that from January to June of this year, QianKai Terminal completed a cumulative container throughput of 200,000 TEUs, a year-on-year increase of 70.94%. The throughput of breakbulk cargo was 987,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 41.2%, which includes 350,000 tons of general cargo, up 114.73% year-on-year; bulk cargo amounted to 593,000 tons, an increase of 11.32%; and roll-on/roll-off cargo reached 44,000 tons, a staggering increase of 340%. It is reported that the QianKai port project is jointly developed and operated by COSCO SHIP PORT Ltd., a subsidiary of China COSCO Shipping Group (holding 60%), and local Peruvian enterprises. QianKai Port is not just a local port in Peru, but an important link in the new trade route between Asia and Latin America. Similarly, Shanghai Port is also one of the most crucial origin ports on this route, serving as a primary terminal for the export of vehicles, with a large volume of Chinese manufactured cars shipped from Shanghai South Port to QianKai Port and then sold to Peru and surrounding Latin American countries. "The situation in the Middle East is unlikely to stabilize in the short term. The Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait not only handle 70% of global oil transportation but also 30% of container transport. Disruptions in the Red Sea route force shipping companies to divert, lengthening travel distances. Meanwhile, war risk premiums have surged from 0.25% of the ship's value to 12%, constituting a significant cost burden," analyzed Wang Guowen, research director of the Logistics and Supply Chain Management Institute at the China (Shenzhen) Comprehensive Development Research Institute. He noted that the current instability of shipping routes and chaotic port calls are consuming more capacity resources, and as long as geopolitical tensions persist, freight rates on related routes will remain high. However, global logistics service provider C.H. Robinson indicated that this summer, many companies chose to arrange shipments in advance to cope with potential tariff policy adjustments, resulting in the traditional peak transport demand of the second half of the year being released early from May to July. With this wave of "pre-exporting" concentrated at an end, market demand has begun to slow down in phases. Spot freight rates have started to decline from their previous highs, and capacity on some routes has become easier to obtain compared to a few months ago. Nonetheless, Wang Guowen believes that although the global container freight rate index has fallen for several consecutive weeks, this does not indicate an overall cooling of the shipping market. The earlier rush to export by companies has compressed the booking cycle from three to four weeks down to one or two weeks, resulting in a significant easing of market tensions: "The current situation reflects a structural rebalancing brought about by the advancement of the peak season and the prepositioning of the off-peak season; it is a phase adjustment rather than a fundamental cooling of the market." A research report from China Securities Co., Ltd. suggests that in the short term, both demand and cost are weakening simultaneously. The frantic shipping wave in the first half of the year has overdrafted subsequent cargo demand, creating a vacuum in transportation demand; at the same time, falling oil prices are lowering shipping companies' operational costs, weakening their motivation to maintain high freight rates. These dual factors combine to create downward pressure on freight rates in the second half of the year. In the medium to long term, the resumption of supply-side operations in the Red Sea remains a decisive variable; once normal navigation resumes, diverted capacity will return en masse, significantly expanding effective supply. Overall, freight rates in the container shipping market are expected to be under pressure in the second half of 2026. Looking further ahead, the interplay of tariff policy disputes, geopolitical disturbances, and global port congestion continues to elevate uncertainties in supply chains, weakening traditional cyclical patterns of freight rates and increasing volatility. Despite this, the long-term growth foundation for demand and rigid constraints on the supply side have not fundamentally reversed, and the center of freight rates still has the support to maintain a relatively high level. Related concept stocks: SITC (01308): On August 12, JPMorgan released a report assigning an "Overweight" rating to SITC, expressing confidence in the company's high-density and stable layout in the Asia region, a diversified customer base covering Greater China, Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia markets, as well as a cautious capital allocation strategy, with industry-leading operating cash flow, net cash position, and high dividend ratio. COSCO Shipping Holdings (01919): Currently, COSCO Shipping Holdings has established nearly 700 container shipping sales and service points worldwide, operating 291 international routes (including international branch lines), 56 domestic coastal routes, and 84 Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River routes, collectively calling at approximately 569 ports in around 142 countries and regions worldwide. The company's self-operated container fleet has a capacity of over 2.92 million TEUs. OOIL (00316): Orient Overseas (International) Ltd. is an investment holding company primarily engaged in container shipping and logistics operations. The company and its subsidiaries operate through two major divisions: Container Shipping and Logistics, and Others. The Container Shipping and Logistics division carries out global container shipping operations on major routes in regions including the Pacific, Atlantic China Welding Consumables, Inc. region, Eurasia, Australia and Asia, as well as within the Asia region. The Pacific Shipping (02343): The company primarily engages in the ownership and leasing of flexible and super-flexible bulk carriers, focusing on global small bulk dry cargo shipping business. The company currently owns a fleet of 115 small and super-flexible bulk carriers and operates a total of about 243 owned and leased cargo ships.