Wang Si stated that the US-Iran conflict is still in the "mid-game" stage, with the US military "seeking an exit," while Iran has set out "six major conditions for reopening the Strait."

The highest military leaders of the U.S. are privately seeking a "way out" for the conflict in Iran. According to Xinhua News Agency, CNN reported on the 7th, citing multiple sources, that General Mark Milley, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, recently expressed this position clearly during meetings with senior White House officials, including Vice President Mike Pence, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and CIA Director John Ratcliffe. On the 8th, Pence stated in an interview with Fox News that the U.S.-Iran conflict is now at a "mid-game" stage, pointing out that the conflict "clearly is no longer in the opening phase." On the same day, Ali Shamkhani, the Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, presented six conditions to the U.S.including the withdrawal of troops, complete lifting of sanctions, and compensation for war damagesas prerequisites for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The strategic waterway, which previously handled one-fifth of the worlds oil transport, has entered a deep-water phase of contention: the U.S. faces ammunition shortages, and the effectiveness of airstrikes is limited; meanwhile, Iran maintains control of the Strait, negotiating alternative shipping routes with Oman while setting multiple barriers to full reopening. Pence: "Not in the opening, but in the mid-game" According to Xinhua News Agency, Pence remarked on the 8th that the U.S.-Iran conflict "is not over yet, but clearly is no longer in the opening phase, having entered the mid-game stage," with the U.S. examining its diplomatic, economic, and military options. He pointed out that the current primary focus of the U.S. is to "increase the quantity of oil and gas transported through the Strait of Hormuz as much as possible" and is observing whether Iran is willing to make "necessary long-term changes" to establish better bilateral relations"if Iran is unwilling, the U.S. will continue to apply pressure." Pence also mentioned that the U.S. is attempting to establish a maritime security mechanism, including mine-clearing operations, while also requiring Iran to make a commitment not to fire on commercial vessels. Despite Irans consistent denial of direct negotiations, Trump has insisted that talks have resumed. Secretary of State Rubio stated on the 4th that the U.S. is involved in dialogue between Oman and Iran. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff advocates "finding a way out" CNN's report reveals deeper anxieties within the U.S. military. Milleys core assessment is that relying solely on airstrikes is unlikely to achieve all the operational goals announced by Trump, yet further escalation of the conflict poses significant negative consequences for existing military options. "Milley is seeking a way out," said one insider. The report indicated that Milley is not the only one who believes that the Iranian conflict is at a "crossroads." He has communicated with several presidential advisors who share the same view, aiming to unify positions before attending a meeting called by Trump. Many within the U.S. government and analysts believe that achieving a decisive victory would require the intervention of large-scale ground forceswhich could lead to significant U.S. casualties and contradict Trumps campaign promises. Milley candidly admitted at a congressional hearing that "airpower has its limitations." Public analysis suggests that Trump's continual threats to escalate attacks on Iranian energy facilities are unlikely to force Iran to capitulate and will almost certainly provoke retaliatory strikes against U.S. allies in the region. Ammunition shortages have shifted from a private concern to a public issue. Multiple insiders noted that since the outbreak of conflict, the U.S. military has consumed nearly four-fifths of its "THAAD" missile inventory, about half of its "Patriot" interceptors, and nearly half of its "Tomahawk" cruise missiles. Trump denied ammunition shortages on the 6th but later conceded that supplies of "certain types of ammunition" are "relatively tight." Milley has repeatedly expressed concerns to Trump regarding stockpiles decreasing to "dangerously low levels," and the shortages have left Trump increasingly frustrated over Iran. The U.S. Central Command has widely solicited "creative, unconventional" suggestions internally to break the deadlock, reflecting the diminishing options available to compel Iran to reach an agreement. In addition, reports from U.S. media as cited by Bull Observer suggest that the "USS Lincoln" aircraft carrier has been deployed in the Middle East for over eight months, with more than 5,000 personnel facing supply shortages and low morale, prompting military families to call for a return to port for replenishment. Iran's six conditions: Hardliners set high thresholds On August 8, according to the Iranian news agency IRNA, Shamkhani laid out six conditions to the U.S.: 1. Never threaten Iran; 2. End all aggression against Iran and its allies; 3. Lift the maritime blockade and withdraw military forces from around Iran; 4. Compensate Iran for all war damages; 5. Lift all sanctions against Iran; 6. Unconditionally unfreeze all Iranian assets. Shamkhani emphasized: "These are the demands of the Iranian people, who have been crying out in the squares and streets for 160 days. The Supreme National Security Council will never back down, whether in war or negotiations." According to The Wall Street Journal, the council is dominated by hardliners and reports directly to Supreme Leader Khamenei. The report noted that these conditions are not the official stance put forward by Iranian negotiators and are clearly unacceptable starting points for the U.S., but it indicates that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is setting high hurdles for any agreement. It is noteworthy that Iranian diplomats, in actual contacts with mediators, have proposed more pragmatic demandsmainly focused on lifting the maritime blockade, restoring exemptions for oil export sanctions, and unfreezing tens of billions of dollars of Iranian funds. A spokesperson for the Revolutionary Guard stated on the 8th through official media: "The Strait of Hormuz is not just an economic route for us; it is a key component of geopolitical and strategic power." According to Tasnim News Agency, the Revolutionary Guard claimed that reopening the Strait is unrelated to Iran-Oman negotiations, "but depends on whether the U.S. completely accepts Iran's conditions and stops interfering in regional negotiations." Temporary shipping routes "close to being finalized," full reopening still far off While a full reopening remains distant, there has been progress in technical negotiations between Iran and Oman regarding temporary shipping arrangements. Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif stated on the 8th: "Given the technical complexities, we are determining a temporary route, and I believe we are very close to an agreement." However, Zarif quickly clarified: "This does not mean that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen. The reopening of the Strait also depends on other conditions, including that the U.S. must compensate for violations of the memorandum of understanding."The ceasefire memorandum signed by Trump and Iran in June sought to open the Strait and pave the way for deeper negotiations but subsequently broke down due to Iran's continued attacks on passing vessels. The Wall Street Journal reported that the draft agreement between Iran and Oman proposes new routing in the Strait: an inbound lane closer to Iran and an outbound lane nearer to Oman, with Iran exercising regulatory authority over inbound vessels. Iran also insists that any agreement must prohibit U.S. naval vessels from passing through the Strait, aimed at diminishing U.S. military presence that has been maintained for decades in the Persian Gulf. U.S. officials have conveyed to the mediators that they will not accept Iranian-imposed restrictions or tolls on Strait traffic. The situation continues to worsen. The UAE National Oil Company (ADNOC) reported that three vessels have been hit by missiles or drones in the past week, bringing the total to 15 vessels struck since the war began. The UAE attributed the latest attack on the 8th to the Revolutionary Guard. Last weekend, Trump halted a new round of military strikes aimed at breaking the deadlock, citing "progress in negotiations." Iranian President Raisi also stated that "now may be the right time to advance negotiations." However, mediators revealed that talks have recently stalled due to Iran's demands for economic relief clashing with the U.S.'s insistence on freedom of navigation. Shamkhani's hardline statements and ongoing attacks on vessels have amplified concerns among mediators that hardliners are delaying the approval of any agreement. This article is reproduced from "Wall Street Observer," authored by Gao Zhimou; edited by Liu Jiayin.