National Bureau of Statistics interpretation: July CPI maintained a moderate increase while PPI year-on-year growth rate fell back.

On August 9, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the urban department, interpreted the CPI and PPI data for July 2026. In July, affected by international input factors, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% month-on-month and increased by 0.5% year-on-year. The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 0.9% year-on-year, indicating a generally mild rise in the CPI. Domestic demand in some industries increased, but influenced by input and seasonal factors, the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.7% month-on-month and increased by 3.5% year-on-year, with the growth rate down by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month. Original text: CPI in July 2026 maintains a mild increase; PPI year-on-year growth rate declines Interpretation of the CPI and PPI data for July 2026 by Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the urban department of the National Bureau of Statistics In July, affected by international input factors, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% month-on-month and increased by 0.5% year-on-year. The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 0.9% year-on-year, indicating a generally mild rise in the CPI. Domestic demand in some industries increased, but due to input and seasonal factors, the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.7% month-on-month and increased by 3.5% year-on-year, with the growth rate down by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month. I. The month-on-month decrease in CPI narrows, while the year-on-year increase remains mild On a month-on-month basis, the national CPI decreased by 0.1%, a reduction of 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month. Price fluctuations in the international market led to a 10.7% decrease in domestic gasoline prices, widening the decline by 5.8 percentage points compared to the previous month, causing the CPI to drop approximately 0.35 percentage points month-on-month. Food prices remained stable compared to last month, slightly below seasonal levels by 0.6 percentage points. In the food category, fresh vegetable prices rose by 1.3%, while egg prices fell by 2.1%, both significantly lower than seasonal levels; a large supply of seasonal fruits led to a 3.8% decrease in fresh fruit prices, causing the CPI to decline approximately 0.07 percentage points month-on-month; the overall impact of the comprehensive regulation policy for live pig production capacity became evident, combined with extreme weather events like high temperatures and heavy rainfall in some areas that raised transportation costs, resulting in a price increase of pork from a decrease of 0.8% last month to an increase of 4.1%, affecting the CPI by approximately 0.07 percentage points month-on-month. Artificial intelligence has driven the iterative upgrades of consumer electronic products, resulting in increased demand and rising prices for related products. Prices for tablets, computers, and mobile phones rose by 11.3%, 5.5%, and 1.0%, respectively, collectively affecting the CPI with an approximate month-on-month increase of 0.03 percentage points. Service prices, which held steady last month, turned to a 0.4% increase this month, affecting the CPI with an approximate month-on-month rise of 0.21 percentage points. In the service category, the increasing demand for summer travel led to price increases of 7.2%, 6.5%, 4.2%, and 3.6% for travel agency fees, hotel accommodations, air tickets, and vehicle rentals, respectively, collectively contributing about 0.10 percentage points to the CPI month-on-month; some regions continued to implement policy-driven price adjustments, with medical service prices rising by 1.1%, impacting the CPI by approximately 0.07 percentage points month-on-month. On a year-on-year basis, the national CPI increased by 0.5%, maintaining a mild rise. The year-on-year CPI growth rate fell by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month, mainly influenced by the retreat in gasoline price increases. Gasoline prices rose by 1.0%, a decrease of 16.0 percentage points compared to last month, reducing its upward impact on CPI by approximately 0.45 percentage points compared to the previous month, leading to a retreat in energy price increases to 0.6%. Excluding energy, the prices of industrial consumer goods rose by 1.5%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points compared to last month, impacting the CPI with an approximate year-on-year increase of 0.37 percentage points. Among these, the prices of gold jewelry, personal care products, and household appliances increased by 24.6%, 1.7%, and 0.2%, respectively, with all growth rates retreating, contributing about 0.13 percentage points to the year-on-year CPI increase; prices for computers, tablets, and mobile phones rose by 17.4%, 17.2%, and 8.5%, respectively, with all growth rates expanding, contributing about 0.14 percentage points to the year-on-year CPI increase. Service prices rose by 0.7%, with the growth rate down by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, influencing the CPI with an approximate year-on-year increase of 0.36 percentage points. Within services, medical service prices rose by 4.3%, with the growth rate expanding by 0.9 percentage points compared to last month, impacting the CPI by approximately 0.28 percentage points year-on-year; prices for domestic services, dining out, and educational services increased by 1.3%, 1.0%, and 0.6%, with overall stable growth rates. Food prices decreased by 1.5%, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to last month, impacting the CPI year-on-year decrease by approximately 0.25 percentage points. In the food category, pork prices decreased by 13.3%, with the decline narrowing by 2.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, impacting the CPI year-on-year decrease by approximately 0.25 percentage points; fresh vegetables, fresh fruits, grains, edible oils, and dairy products saw price declines between 0.3% and 1.5%; egg prices rose by 17.8%, with the growth rate retreating by 2.2 percentage points; prices for lamb, beef, and poultry varied between 1.6% and 6.2%. II. PPI decreases month-on-month, while year-on-year growth rates decline On a month-on-month basis, the national PPI decreased by 0.7%, the decline expanding by 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month. The main characteristics of PPI month-on-month operations this month are: first, input factors influenced the downward price trend in related domestic industries. Prices in the oil extraction, refined petroleum products manufacturing, and organic chemical raw materials manufacturing sectors fell by 11.8%, 8.4%, and 4.2%, respectively; prices in the non-ferrous metal mining and selection industries, and non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling industries fell by 2.1% and 1.7%, respectively, with these five industries collectively contributing approximately 0.65 percentage points to the PPI month-on-month decline. Second, seasonal factors impacted price declines in some industries. In July, there were more high temperatures, rainfall, and typhoon weather, which slowed the progress of construction projects; prices in the black metal smelting and rolling industries, and non-metallic mineral products industry decreased by 0.8% and 0.5%, respectively; with an increase in hydropower and wind power, prices decreased by 10.3% and 3.9%, respectively, collectively affecting the PPI month-on-month decline by approximately 0.11 percentage points. Third, industrial transformation and upgrading, and improvements in consumption quality and expansion drove demand increases and price rises in some industries. New growth drivers such as artificial intelligence, high-end equipment, and new materials are thriving, with prices for intelligent unmanned aerial vehicle manufacturing, carbon new materials, and ship and related equipment manufacturing increasing by 2.5%, 0.4%, and 0.3%, respectively. Quality-type consumption grew rapidly, with prices for smart home consumer devices and skincare cosmetics manufacturing rising by 3.4% and 0.7%, respectively. On a year-on-year basis, the national PPI rose by 3.5%, with the growth rate down by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month. By industry, in major sectors with price increases, the oil and gas extraction industry, oil, coal, and other fuel processing industries, and chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing sectors increased by 3.2%, 8.2%, and 9.1%, respectively; prices in the non-ferrous metal mining and selection industry, and non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling industries increased by 22.6% and 20.2%, respectively; the black metal smelting and rolling industry increased by 2.7%, with all growth rates retreating from the previous month, collectively contributing approximately 2.55 percentage points to the year-on-year PPI increase; the coal mining and washing industry rose by 27.1%, the electrical equipment and apparatus manufacturing industry increased by 5.7%, and the computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry rose by 4.4%, with all growth rates expanding compared to the previous month, collectively contributing approximately 1.53 percentage points to the year-on-year PPI increase. Among the nine sectors mentioned above, the upward contribution to the PPI decreased by 0.56 percentage points compared to the previous month. The five industries with the most significant downward price impact are: electricity and heat production and supply, automobile manufacturing, non-metallic mineral products, pharmaceutical manufacturing, and beverage and refined tea manufacturing, with declines ranging from 2.3% to 5.7%, collectively contributing to a year-on-year decrease in the PPI of approximately 0.76 percentage points, a reduction of 0.05 percentage points compared to the previous month.