Hong Kong Stock Concept Tracking | Strict Control of Copper and Cobalt Exports in Congo (DRC) Reshapes Global Supply Pattern: Tight Spot Supply Difficult to Ease, Q3 Cobalt Price Upward Window Opens (including Concept Stocks)

On August 6, foreign media reported that an official decree indicates that the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has banned the export of copper concentrates and cobalt concentrates. Data shows that the DRC is the world's largest producer of cobalt and the second largest producer of copper, following Chile. In 2025, the copper export volume from the DRC is expected to increase by nearly 10% year-on-year, reaching 3.4 million tons. Specifically, this order was jointly signed on June 29 by the DRC's Minister of Mines, Louis Watum, Minister of Foreign Trade, Julien Paluku Kahongya, and Minister of Economy, Daniel Mukoko Samba. The decree clearly states, The export of copper and cobalt concentrates is prohibited. This order takes effect immediately but can grant a one-year export exemption under strategic circumstances. Following this news, after 5 PM Beijing time on August 6, international copper prices suddenly surged. The three-month copper contract on the London Metal Exchange (LME) reached $14,369.5 per ton, with an intraday increase of 1.8%, further approaching this year's historical high of $14,527.5 per ton set in January. Analysts point out that the biggest uncertainty currently comes from the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine, the world's fourth-largest copper mine, which is still exporting part of its concentrates under the exemption provisions. However, considering the efforts by mining giants over the years to establish local production capacity, the latest ban is not expected to have a severe impact on most operators in the country. Official data shows that most copper exported by the DRC is refined metal. In the first quarter of this year, the country exported 696,725 tons of cathode copper, along with 53,926 tons of copper concentrate containing 18,863 tons of copper metal. During the same period, the DRC also exported 51,940 tons of cobalt hydroxide, containing 17,054 tons of cobalt metal. Gu Fengda, chief analyst at Guosen Futures, stated that this sudden policy means that the global copper and cobalt supply chain will face a new round of stringent constraintsconsidering that the DRC supplies about 70% of the world's cobalt and is the second-largest copper resource country, any policy changes are key variables in the global supply chain reshaping. Previously, the markets logic about the recovery of copper-cobalt mines was interrupted, and copper and cobalt prices are expected to resonate and break through under this sudden new policy. Gu Fengda believes that the DRC's ban on exporting copper and cobalt concentrates marks the entry of the global critical mineral competition into a resource countries actively pricing stage. The global commodity pricing system is rapidly transitioning from a unipolar to a multipolar structure, and from an efficiency-first to a security-first new equilibrium. In this process, attention must be paid to the high volatility of strategic resource prices. Founders previous research report also pointed out that the DRC's quotas are concentrated in a few leading companies, leading to difficulty in relieving tightness in the spot market. According to the DRC government's quota allocation rules, CMOC Group Limited, Glencore, and Eurasian Resources collectively received nearly 70% of the quotas. The products of these leading companies typically have a higher proportion of long-term contracts, and the quotas obtained will primarily be used to ensure supplies for their major downstream clients, with the increase in spot market supply still to be observed. Investment advice: Given the DRCs strict control over cobalt resource export volumes, attention should be paid to opportunities for rising cobalt prices in the third quarter. Relevant concept stocks: CHINFMINING (01258): The company announced that the repairs on the main and auxiliary shafts of the Qianbixi southeast ore body will be completed by December 2025, with expected results. The mine is scheduled to resume production on January 1, 2026. The company anticipates a total copper production of approximately 484,000 tons in 2026, including about 134,000 tons of cathode copper and about 350,000 tons of copper anodes/bulk copper. Due to planned maintenance shutdowns affecting the Qianbixi copper smelter and the Luahala copper smelter, the production of bulk copper/anode copper is expected to decline. It is estimated that approximately 155,000 tons of copper will be produced from its own mines throughout the year; about 900,000 tons of sulfuric acid will be produced; about 100,000 tons of liquid sulfur dioxide will be produced; and about 600 tons of cobalt hydroxide containing cobalt will be produced. JIANGXI COPPER (00358): As a leading domestic copper smelting company, Jiangxi Copper has an annual cathode copper production capacity of 2.1 million tons, with the copper business accounting for over 70% of its revenue. CMOC Group Limited (03993): CMOC Group Limited is a leading global "mining + trading" company, ranking high in tungsten, cobalt, niobium, and molybdenum production, as well as being a significant producer of copper and phosphate fertilizers, and one of the top three in global base metal trading. Currently, the company holds an 80% stake in TFM, one of the world's largest and highest-grade operating copper-cobalt mines; it also holds a 71.25% stake in KFM, a world-class greenfield copper-cobalt mine.