Guolian Minsheng Securities: 2026 will be the first year of mass production for sodium-ion batteries, optimistic about the future market space and the development of application scenarios.

Guolian Minsheng Securities released a research report stating that sodium-ion batteries have three major advantages: economic, safety, and low-temperature fast charging performance, mainly used in energy storage, new energy vehicles, etc. In 2026, sodium-ion batteries will enter the year of mass production, and the company predicts that the shipment volume of sodium-ion batteries in 2026 is expected to exceed 20GWh, with a further increase to over 500GWh in 2030. The penetration rate of sodium-ion batteries is expected to reach close to 10% by 2030. The company is optimistic about the future market space and application scenarios of sodium-ion batteries. The main views of Guolian Minsheng Securities are as follows: Three major advantages of sodium-ion batteries - economic, safety, and low-temperature fast charging performance: 1) Cost advantage: Sodium resources are widely distributed and easy to extract, thus prices are stable and low; the sources and costs of sodium-ion battery cathodes and conductive fluids have advantages. 2) Safety performance: Sodium-ion batteries have good thermal stability, making them less prone to thermal runaway and explosions; they have higher internal resistance than lithium-ion batteries, allowing for zero-voltage transportation. 3) Low-temperature fast charging performance: Operating temperature range is -45C to 80C, and sodium batteries have significant advantages in low-temperature performance, with capacity retention of over 90% at -20C; sodium batteries excel in rate performance and fast charging capabilities. Wide future space for sodium-ion batteries: 1) Application scenarios for sodium-ion batteries: energy storage, new energy vehicles, etc. Large-scale energy storage systems have higher requirements for safety, wide temperature range, long lifespan, high reliability, and economic efficiency, making sodium batteries suitable. The low-temperature and high safety characteristics of sodium batteries make them more suitable for cold regions and high safety demand vehicle models in the future. 2) In 2026, sodium-ion batteries will enter the year of mass production. Companies such as Contemporary Amperex Technology, Gotion High-tech, Eve Energy Co., Ltd., BYD Company Limited, are actively expanding their GWh-level production capacity for sodium-ion batteries. The entire industry chain for sodium batteries, including anodes and cathodes, is accelerating cost reduction, and by 2026, sodium-ion batteries are expected to enter the era of 0.4 yuan/Wh. 3) Sodium-ion batteries have broad space. In 2025, global shipments of sodium-ion batteries reached 9GWh and the company predicts that the shipment volume of sodium-ion batteries in 2026 is expected to exceed 20GWh, reaching over 500GWh by 2030, with the penetration rate of sodium-ion batteries expected to reach close to 10% by 2030. Advances in key stages of industrialization for sodium-ion batteries: 1) Battery: Contemporary Amperex Technology - a pioneer in sodium-ion batteries. In April 2026, Contemporary Amperex Technology released the second generation of the "Sodium New" sodium-ion battery, with plans to achieve large-scale production in Q4 2026, marking the beginning of commercialization of sodium batteries on a large scale. 2) Anodes: A critical area with different approaches. Among the three mainstream approaches, layer-structured oxide technology is relatively mature, Prussian blue compound has lower costs, and poly-anion compound offers excellent thermal stability and long cycle life. 3) Cathodes: Hard carbon/soft carbon takes the stage. Compared to soft carbon materials, hard carbon materials have higher energy density, better cycle life, and safety, but they have lower first-coulomb efficiency. Hard carbon materials are currently the mainstream, with a market share of up to 98%. 4) Electrolyte: The electrolyte is usually sodium hexafluorophosphate. It has minimal mass loss at 300C and high ionic conductivity. 5) Conductive fluids: Both the cathode and anode conductive fluids are aluminum foil. Aluminum foil prices are much lower than copper foil, further reducing costs. Investment recommendations: The company is optimistic about the future market space and application scenarios for sodium-ion batteries. Recommendations include: 1) Battery end: Focus on leading companies in sodium battery layout, such as Contemporary Amperex Technology and Guangzhou Great Power Energy and Technology. 2) Material end: 1) Conductive fluids segment: Aluminum foil usage doubled, recommended companies to watch include Jiangsu Dingsheng New Materials Joint-Stock and Shantou Wanshun New Material Group; 2) Anodes segment: Hard carbon is the mainstream, suggested companies to watch include Hunan Zhongke Electric, Fujian Yuanli Active Carbon, Shijiazhuang Shangtai Technology; 3) Cathodes segment: Recommended companies to watch include Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology and Guizhou Zhenhua E-chem Inc. Risk warnings: Energy storage demand lower than expected, lithium battery costs decrease more than expected, new technologies fall below expectations, industrialization of sodium-ion batteries proceeds slower than expected, overcapacity, and risks of calculation errors.