Caitong: Resist internal competition, drive price recovery, seize the opportunity of excellent performance and undervaluation of express delivery.

Caitong released a research report stating that with the continuous promotion of anti-"involution" in the express delivery industry, the performance of express delivery companies has generally improved, and the growth rate of shipments continues to differentiate. It is recommended to focus on companies with bottom valuations, including the leading A-share YTO Express Group (600233.SH), Hong Kong-listed ZTO EXPRESS-W (02057), as well as STO Express Co., Ltd. (002468.SZ) and YUNDA Holding Group (002120.SZ) with high elasticity against "involution". Due to the various investment opportunities in the express delivery industry, the "bullish" rating on the industry is maintained. Key points from Caitong are as follows: Industry Volume and Price 1. Volume: In June 2026, the year-on-year growth rate of physical online retail sales (3.9%) was higher than that of the express delivery industry business volume (3.8%) and social retail sales (1.0%); From January to June 2026, the year-on-year growth rate of business volume in the express delivery industry (5.0%) was higher than that of physical online retail sales (4.8%) and social retail sales (1.3%). 2. Price: In June 2026, the average income per shipment in the express delivery industry was 7.77 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%. The trend of year-on-year growth in average income per shipment continues due to the ongoing promotion of anti-"involution". Volume and Price of Various Companies 1. Volume: In June 2026, the year-on-year growth rates of business volumes in YTO Express Group, YUNDA Holding Group, STO Express Co., Ltd., and S.F. Holding were +8.60%, -0.05%, +18.59%, and -4.86% respectively, while the industry business volume grew by 3.8%. YTO Express Group and STO Express Co., Ltd. had higher growth rates in business volume compared to the industry. 2. Price: In June 2026, the year-on-year growth rates of average income per shipment for YTO Express Group, YUNDA Holding Group, STO Express Co., Ltd., and S.F. Holding were -1.90%, +10.47%, +6.03%, and +5.41% respectively. In June, with the continuous promotion of anti-"involution", the average prices per shipment of YUNDA Holding Group, STO Express Co., Ltd., and S.F. Holding increased significantly year-on-year; overall, the increases in prices were positively correlated with the decreases in business volumes year-on-year. The main reason for the significant increase in both volume and price for STO Express Co., Ltd. is due to the inclusion of Dans Bird logistics and its subsidiaries in STO Express Co., Ltd.'s consolidated financial statements starting from November 2025. After the inclusion of Dans Bird logistics in the consolidated financial statements of STO Express Co., Ltd., the overall volume and revenue from express delivery services of STO Express Co., Ltd. may further increase. Expected Performance Increase The effectiveness of anti-"involution" is showing, with H1 performance of YTO Express Group, YUNDA Holding Group, and STO Express Co., Ltd. expected to increase significantly. According to the performance forecast announcements of each express delivery company: 1. YTO Express Group is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 31.00 billion to 34.00 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 69.34% to 85.73%; 2. YUNDA Holding Group is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 9.05 billion to 10.50 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 71.15% to 98.57%; 3. STO Express Co., Ltd. is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 9.50 billion to 10.60 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 109.59% to 133.85%. Risk Warning: Adjustment of industry policies; Industry downturn worse than expected; Cost control lower than expected; Significant fluctuations in oil prices.