Broker morning meeting essence | Weak demand for liquor in the off-season, channel optimization becomes the core marginal improvement

Yesterday, the market rallied in the final trading session, with the Shanghai Composite, ChiNext Index, and Sci-Tech 50 Index probing the bottom and rebounding into the green. The turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.7 trillion yuan. Over 3700 stocks in the entire market fell, with over 200 stocks hitting their downside limit. In terms of sectors, concepts such as electricity, coal, liquor, and oil and gas were active against the trend. On the downside, PCB, CPO, and electronic special gases continued to decline. By the close, the Shanghai Composite rose by 0.85%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.71%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 0.42%. At today's brokerage morning meeting, Zhongtai believes that the off-season demand for liquor is weak, and channel optimization has become the core marginal improvement; CITIC SEC believes that the adjustment of the battery consumption tax has been implemented, and the consumption tax reform is gradually deepening; Huaxi believes that the medium to long-term trend in technology has not yet ended, and differentiation and rotation will be the main focus for now. Zhongtai: Off-season demand for liquor is weak, channel optimization becomes core marginal improvement The liquor industry transitioned from deep downturn in 2025 to the bottoming phase in 2026, with the industry operational logic switching entirely. Liquor companies have abandoned the strategy of pushing sales volume and turned to controlling inventory, stabilizing wholesale prices, and pursuing refined end-point sales operations, leading to continuous repair of the channel ecosystem. The second quarter is the traditional off-season for consumption, combined with lower-than-expected consumption scenarios during the Dragon Boat Festival and May Day, overall demand remains weak, but sector differentiation is significant. High-end liquor has prominent counter-cyclical attributes: Maotai has raised product prices multiple times, relying on the iMaotai direct-to-consumer model and distributor sales model to ease channel capital pressure. Feitian's wholesale prices are stable, inventory is low, and it is expected that Q2 revenue and profit will increase slightly; Wuliangye Yibin's end-point sales hit a three-year high, driven by World Cup marketing; Luzhou Laojiao implemented a strategy of controlling quantity and supporting prices, with short-term revenue and profit under pressure year-on-year. In the mid-range segment, competition is fierce, and companies continue to destock, with Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory and Shede Spirits expected to see a year-on-year decline in revenue and profit; local market barriers and banquet channels help the entity-focused liquor firms achieve steady small growth. CITIC SEC: Adjustment of battery consumption tax is implemented, consumption tax reform is gradually deepening On July 17, the Ministry of Finance, the General Administration of Customs, and the State Administration of Taxation jointly issued a notice on the adjustment of the battery consumption tax policy, marking a substantial step in the consumption tax reform for specific items. This move not only implements the specific requirements of the government work report this year to "adjust and optimize the scope of consumption tax levying and tax rates", but also vividly explains the gradual approach of consumption tax reform "maturing a batch by batch, advancing a batch by batch." It is expected that future consumption tax reform will continue to deepen in the three major directions of optimizing the scope of collection, adjusting the tax rate structure, and advancing the backward collection stages. Huaxi: The medium to long-term trend in technology is not over, differentiation and rotation will be the main focus for now At the current point in time, the most intense selling pressure may have passed, and the market is likely to enter a new stage of "volatility, slow recovery". The downside space for indices is limited, and an upward breakthrough also requires resonating cooperation between fundamentals and capital. On one hand, the desensitization of A-shares technology to external shocks is a process; the pace of deleveraging in the Korean stock market still needs to see the continuous decline of the forced liquidation scale. In addition, foreign investors in Korea have been net selling Korean shares for four consecutive months, and before the Korean stock market becomes desensitized to leveraged trading, it still has an emotional impact on global assets. On the other hand, the technology trend driven by industrial trends is expected to continue, but before a new round of strong industrial catalysts emerges, it is difficult to see the extreme herd mentality in the first half of the year. Rotation and differentiation will be the main theme. Firstly, select high-quality stocks with strong fundamental support; secondly, rotate towards the domestic chain and downstream sectors. In terms of industry allocation, select high-quality stocks with strong fundamental support in the upstream, midstream, and downstream industries related to "AI+"; also focus on quality targets related to "innovative drugs, Hong Kong internet, media games," and others. This article is reprinted from "Cai Lian She", GMTEight editor: Li Fo.