After the stock price evaporated by three quarters, Circle (CRCL.US) faced another blow: Visa, BlackRock, Inc. ganged up to besiege, Mizuho pessimistic to $50.

Since its initial public offering (IPO) last year and reaching its peak, the stock price of Circle Internet Group Inc. (CRCL.US) has now evaporated more than three-quarters. With more stablecoins entering the market, analysts warn that the worst may yet to come. This week, Mizuho Securities USA analyst Dan Dolev downgraded Circle's rating from "Neutral" to "Underperforming the Market," and issued the lowest target price on Wall Street at $50 per share, implying about an 18% downside from Thursday's closing price. This price is also significantly lower than the average target price of $123 given by analysts tracking the stock. Although Circle's stablecoin USDC ranks second globally in terms of market capitalization, just behind Tether Holdings SA's USDT, Dolev believes that it is facing increasingly intense competitive pressure. Currently, over 100 fintech companies, payment networks, cryptocurrency companies, and banking institutionsincluding Visa Inc. (V.US), Stripe LLC, Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN.US), and BlackRock, Inc. (BLK.US)are supporting the Open Standard project, which will issue a new stablecoin called Open USD (OUSD). In an interview, Dolev said, "These partners are like an 'all-star team,' with vast asset management and customer resources, and they will undoubtedly spare no effort to promote the wide adoption of OUSD. I believe that other Wall Street peers have not fully realized this risk, hence their profit forecasts appear overly optimistic." On Thursday, following Visa's announcement of a platform allowing Financial Institutions, Inc. to issue, transfer, and manage stablecoins, Circle's stock price plummeted by 7.7% at the close of the day. Looking back to June 2025, Circle's stock price skyrocketed by 750% in the weeks following its IPO, as market enthusiasm for the U.S. "GENIUS Stablecoin Act" was high, leading investors to flock to this rare listed stablecoin company. However, with more stablecoins pegged to the U.S. dollar being introduced, and overall pressure on cryptocurrency assets, Circle's stock price has sharply declined from its peak. It cannot be denied that Circle is actively building defenses to withstand the onslaught of new playerssuch as being granted status as a limited-purpose bank. However, pricing pressures and the increasing interests of partners remain omnipresent. Emerging stablecoin business models may use more attractive revenue-sharing mechanisms to "leverage" Circle's partners. Circle's revenue mainly comes from the income generated by its USDC reserve assets. New stablecoins like OUSD plan to share reserve income with partners and only charge a small management feethis means that partners may receive higher returns. Dolev bluntly stated, "I believe Circle's situation is not optimistic." He predicts that Circle's adjusted EBITDA for 2027 will reach $699 million, significantly lower than the market's consensus expectation of $907 million, based on concerns about the company being caught in a dilemma. Furthermore, Dolev pointed out that there is short-term risk in the USDC distribution agreement between Circle and Coinbasethey are set to renegotiate the agreement in August this year. Dolev said, "With Circle currently under pressure from OUSD, Coinbase is likely to leverage this as leverage to negotiate a more favorable revenue sharing ratio, getting a bigger piece of the pie." He further stated, "This will inevitably erode Circle's profitability, and is a major reason for our downward revision of performance expectations."