Donghai Securities: Structural repair of consumption has appeared, mass market products are showing improvement trends.

Donghai Securities released a research report stating that since 2026, consumer recovery has been slow, but structural repair has been evident. Mass-market products are showing improvement trends, the catering supply chain is leading in recovery, and competition is slowing down; the beer industry is entering a peak consumption season, and price and volume recovery is expected; the dairy supply and demand pattern is optimized, and milk prices are expected to stabilize and rise. The inflection point for raw milk supply and demand is nearing, with growth potential in deep processing and low-temperature dairy products. Donghai Securities' main points are as follows: Beer In the short term, entering the peak season for beer, with a low base effect combined with El Nio high temperatures and the catalyst of the World Cup in the Americas, sales elasticity is expected. In the medium to long term, the total volume of the beer industry remains stable, with the industry's core trend shifting from traditional catering channels to the dual driving forces of high-end product iteration and instant retail channel dividends. It is recommended to focus on two main trends: successful channel transformation with a well-rounded matrix of high-end flagship products and innovative capabilities in original wort at Tsingtao Brewery, and the continuous growth of flagship products in the 8-10 yuan price range with outstanding performance elasticity at Beijing Yanjing Brewery. Catering chain On the demand side, catering is showing a moderate recovery trend, with delivery, fast food, and group dining sales continuing to rebound. The chain-restaurant rate continues to rise, with chain brands reducing costs and increasing efficiency, driving stable incremental growth in frozen and pre-prepared dishes. On the supply side, the industry's concentrated expansion cycle has basically ended, with industry supply tending to stabilize. Coupled with the slowdown in industry price wars, the industry structure is improving, and leading enterprises have clear bargaining power and room for profit margin improvement. It is recommended to pay attention to Anjoy Foods Group, which has excellent product innovation and iteration capabilities and a balanced distribution in BC channels. For tea drinks, leading freshly brewed tea brands accounted for the majority of new store market share in 2025, driving continuous increase in the rate of freshly brewed tea chain stores and concentration. Focus on MIXUE GROUP, which has outstanding scale advantages in forming an oligopoly in the mid-range market, and GUMING, which has good growth potential, high operational efficiency, and excellent product research and development. Dairy products The inflection point for raw milk supply and demand is approaching, with growth potential in deep processing and low-temperature dairy products. Raw milk prices have been falling for more than 4 years, with prices hovering at low levels since the second half of 2025. The industry has experienced long periods of losses, accelerated capacity reduction, and it is expected that dairy cow capacity will continue to decrease in 2026. Demand for deep-processed dairy products is increasing, and demand for low-temperature dairy products is growing rapidly, with medium to long-term growth potential. As the supply and demand for raw milk becomes more balanced, milk prices are expected to stabilize and rise in the second half of the year. The inflection point for raw milk supply and demand, as well as the stabilization and rise of milk prices, will improve the competitive landscape of the dairy industry. Leading dairy companies are actively promoting product upgrades, and profitability is expected to gradually improve. Focus on Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group, MENGNIU DAIRY, and New Hope Dairy, which have experienced rapid growth in low-temperature business. Beef prices are in an upward cycle, synchronized with the dairy cycle. Pasture companies are expected to see performance elasticity, with a focus on leading pasture companies YOURAN DAIRY and CH MODERN D. Risk warning: Macroeconomic fluctuations, intensified competition, fluctuating raw material costs, food safety risks.