China Securities Co., Ltd.: Excavator domestic and export sales continue to exceed expectations in June, Semiconductor equipment global business cycle continues to be confirmed.

China Securities Co., Ltd. released a research report stating that the humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation sector is experiencing multiple catalytic resonances, with Tesla's humanoid robot Siasun Robot & Automation moving towards mass production, and showing optimism for the sector's sustainability. AIDC power generation equipment continues to maintain high prosperity, with a strong belief in the overseas expansion of domestic gas turbines. Sales of excavators exceeded expectations in June, and a firm layout is being maintained at a low level. The global semiconductor equipment industry has entered a major cycle, with a focus on price increases and overseas expansion. In the lithium battery equipment sector, energy storage relays and solid-state breakthroughs are resonating with high industrialization and prosperity on the equipment side. Key points from China Securities Co., Ltd. are as follows: - Humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation: multiple catalytic resonances in the sector, suggesting a focus on high-quality segments. - With the advent of the era of mass production of Tesla's Optimus, the successful IPO of Yushu, and the release of a new product by UBTECH ROBOTICS, there are multiple catalytic resonances in the sector. - Physical AI is the next wave of artificial intelligence, and Siasun Robot & Automation is one of the best physical carriers for AI, with a clear trend in industrial development. - Leading manufacturers are actively promoting the application of humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation in industrial, commercial, and other scenarios; with the improvement of Siasun Robot & Automation's versatility, it is expected that its application scenarios will further expand, with the potential to become a big year for humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation applications by 2026. - The orderly promotion of mass production by leading companies, and the gradual clarification of the production scale of the supply chain, validate the pace of production. Subsequent releases of V3 products and mass production applications are worth close attention. In addition, new product releases, IPO promotions, and application landings by domestic Siasun Robot & Automation companies continue to bring catalysts to the sector, and we are optimistic about the sector's performance, suggesting a focus on high-quality segments. - AIDC power generation equipment: The industry continues to maintain high prosperity, with a strong belief in the overseas expansion of domestic gas turbines. - On the demand side: Doosan Energy received 10 orders for gas turbines in the first quarter; Meta announced the construction of a 1GW AI data center in Canada, complemented by the construction of a 932MW gas combined cycle power plant that can be expanded to 1,864MW in the future; Kodiak and BakerHughes signed a framework agreement for a maximum of 1.8GW of gas turbines, with the first batch of approximately 1GW of equipment planned to be delivered by 2030. - On the supply side: The Chestnut Run project in the United States was forced to adjust the model and installation capacity because it could not obtain the originally planned gas turbine, indicating that equipment supply remains a core bottleneck in the industry, with the delivery time and bargaining power of whole machine manufacturers expected to remain strong; Nanjing Develop Advanced Manufacturing has obtained the supply qualifications for Mitsubishi's overseas projects, further validating the trend of overseas OEMs releasing orders to the domestic high-end parts supply chain. Viewpoint: There are no signs of a cooling trend in the industry's fundamentals this week, with a strong belief in the overseas expansion of domestic gas turbines. In the short term, market trading order rhythms and overseas supply expansions may continue, but what is truly scarce at the industry level is gas turbine production capacity and delivery capacity for 2028-2030. And domestic gas turbines themselves are short delivery period production capacity supplements, for the domestic gas turbine chain, companies that show continuous order acceptance capabilities are expected to stand out when entering the overseas performance period. - Construction machinery: Sales of excavators exceeded expectations in June, with a firm layout at a low level. - In June 2026, sales of various types of excavators reached 25,445 units, a year-on-year increase of 35.3%. Among them: domestic sales amounted to 10,898 units (including 65 electric excavators), an increase of 33.9% year-on-year; exports reached 14,547 units (including 34 electric excavators), an increase of 36.4% year-on-year. The growth rate both domestically and internationally has accelerated, with domestic excavator sales showing a more significant peak season shift since spring this year, as the Chinese New Year was later compared to last year, domestic excavators have shown high year-on-year positive growth since March and are expected to continue to grow. Exports have maintained strong performance and have not been affected by international situations, tariff changes, or interest rate cuts. China's construction machinery high-growth trend continues. The domestic landscape is improving, as leading companies begin to increase prices. From May 1st, Sany, Xugong, Guangxi Liugong Machinery, and Shantui announced a 5% price increase for excavators, and Sany and Xugong also raised prices for crane products, reflecting a slowdown in industry pricing wars since the beginning of the year and a shift towards positive development. - Semiconductor equipment: The global prosperity cycle continues to be confirmed, with a focus on price increases and overseas expansion. - SEMI raised its annual expectations, and SK Hynix plans to triple its capacity by 2034, confirming the continuous global prosperity cycle of the semiconductor industry. On June 11th, SEMI released a report, significantly raising its growth rate expectations for the global front-end semiconductor equipment market in 2026 from the previous 16.5% to 23.5%, reaching $152.2 billion. Global semiconductor equipment shipments in the first quarter reached $36.55 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14%, achieving a record single-quarter high. Following the recent announcement of SK Hynix's plan to double its production capacity in five years, SK Group Chairman Choi Tae-yong further revealed in a recent interview that if all plans proceed smoothly, SK Hynix's capacity will be three times the current level by 2034. The components sector is currently experiencing a rare increase in prices across the entire chain. Pricing power in the semiconductor industry is shifting from chip terminals to the equipment and component segments structurally. Components companies have relatively small scales and high fixed costs, so price increases directly profits; at the same time, production line expansion cycles last for 12-18 months, with the worst supply elasticity. The extended delivery times for overseas suppliers of valves, pipelines, ceramic parts, radio frequency power supplies, and GASBOX have brought about demands for domestic substitutes and price increase logic. - Lithium battery equipment: Energy storage relay and solid-state breakthrough, resonating with high industrialization and prosperity on the equipment side. - The lithium battery equipment industry continues the "production reaching a new high - order fulfillment - profit restoration" logic chain. In July, China's lithium battery production reached approximately 283GWh, an increase of 5.6% month-on-month, marking the fifth consecutive month of record levels. Energy storage batteries accounted for 42.9% of production, with demand shifting from being driven solely by new energy vehicles to multifaceted growth, with energy storage becoming the leading growth engine driving continued industry prosperity. Solid-state battery industrialization is accelerating, with the introduction of GWh-scale full solid-state production lines, synchronous construction of pilot lines by leading battery manufacturers, and the official release of the classification standards for the solid-state battery industry in July, leading to the industry developing towards standardized development guided by policies. Orders on the equipment side are gradually being implemented, with Foshan Golden Milky Way Intelligent Equipment securing an order for the core equipment of a 2GWh solid-state production line from Jinlongyu Group, signaling that the equipment side is starting to benefit. 2026 is seen by many car companies as the year of validation for full solid-state industrialization, with equipment bidding opportunities starting to open up. Sodium batteries entering their first year of commercialization constitute the third mainspring, with Contemporary Amperex Technology releasing the "Tianheng Sodium Energy Storage" solution in June and the first batch to be delivered in September, solidifying the industry trend towards industrialization from 1 to N. In addition, lithium battery equipment companies are expanding through platformization, overseas layouts, and positioning with new technologies to create a second growth curve, with operational fluctuations being smoothed out and valuations reevaluated from being "cyclical lithium battery equipment companies" to "platform-type high-end equipment companies". The current sector is in a window period of resonance between "high production prosperity + solid-state industrialization acceleration + sodium battery commercialization", and the continued value of configuring lithium battery equipment and solid-state battery sectors is seen. Key recommendations for the machinery sector: - China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power - Kunshan Dongwei Technology - Yantai Jereh Oilfield Services Group - China CSSC - Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic - Orbis MediTech - Sany Heavy Industry - Himile Mechanical Science and Technology - Hefei I-TEK OptoElectronics - Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc. China - Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment - Bozhon Precision Industry Technology - XCMG Construction Machinery - China International Marine Containers - Centre Testing International Group - Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Risk analysis: Risks of domestic macroeconomic fluctuations, risks of overseas market fluctuations, risks of downstream production expansion falling short of expectations.