The list of the Federal Reserve's reformed "Think Tank" is revealed: Wall Street and academic heavyweights gather, with the AI team all being "optimists"

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Wash officially announced the members of five external special workgroups on Thursday. This group of Wall Street titans, business leaders, academic authorities, and former central bank officials, collectively known as a "think tank," will conduct a comprehensive review of the operations of the Federal Reserve around core issues such as communication mechanisms, data governance, balance sheet management, productivity and employment, and inflation assessment frameworks. Of particular note is the AI economy-focused workgroup, which stands out for the highly consistent positions of its members. Wash stated, "I am honored that top scholars from various disciplines can work with us to enhance the performance of the Federal Reserve. The goal is clear: to ensure that the Federal Reserve can achieve its policy objectives in the best possible way at this critical time." As part of Wash's commitment to a comprehensive assessment of monetary policy, these work groups will extensively explore various areas, from inflation trends to the impact of AI, and will "start from fundamental principles, pose sharp questions, examine current practices, and evaluate alternative solutions." According to the Federal Reserve statement, each work group will "operate independently, adhering to the principles of factual basis, candid feedback, and rigorous verification," and will ultimately report their research findings to the Federal Open Market Committee. Internal Federal Reserve staff will provide logistical and professional support to all work groups. Specific Lineups of the Five Workgroups The list announced this time covers a diverse range of ideologies and backgrounds. The specific groups and members are as follows: Communication Strategy Group: Peter Fisher (Practitioner Professor at Washington University Hangzhou First Applied Material Business School), Arminio Fraga (Founder of Gvea Investimentos, former President of the Brazilian Central Bank), Mervyn King (former Governor of the Bank of England). Balance Sheet Policy Group: Karen Dynan (Harvard University economist), Raghuram Rajan (former Governor of the Reserve Bank of India), Jeremy Stein (former Federal Reserve Board member). Data Group: Doug McMillon (former CEO of Walmart Inc.), Raj Chetty (Harvard University economist), Kevin Murphy (University of Chicago economist). Productivity and Employment Group: Marc Andreessen (venture capitalist), Charles Jones (Stanford University economist), Asha Sharma (Executive Vice President of Microsoft Corporation and CEO of Xbox). Inflation Framework Group: Greg Mankiw (former Chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers), William White (Canadian economist who warned of the 2008 financial crisis), Thomas Sargent (economist at New York University and Nobel laureate). AI Workgroup: Like-minded Optimists Among the aforementioned groups, the Productivity and Employment Group, responsible for "evaluating the impact of new general-purpose technologies, including AI, on the economy in order to provide information for Fed policy judgments," shows a high degree of consistency among its members the three external consultants all firmly believe that AI will be a revolutionary technology bringing profound growth and productivity changes, aligning with Wash's long-standing views. Wash has been a long-time advocate of the potential of AI transformation. At his first press conference after assuming the chairmanship in June, he stated that the adoption of AI "may be the most important change in the economy, business, and household sectors that I have witnessed in my adult life." In 2025, he expressed his belief that AI progress would be a reason for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, as it could help the economy grow rapidly without causing inflation. The members of this workgroup were personally selected by Wash. Mark Andreessen, a member of the group and a venture capitalist, has been a close friend of Wash for many years. After leaving the Federal Reserve in 2011, Wash managed venture capital for investor Stanley Druckenmiller, which not only expanded his network in Silicon Valley but also enriched his personal wealth. Andreessen, who amassed his wealth by developing a web browser early on, is now one of the most enthusiastic advocates of AI. His recent podcast described AI chips based on silicon as "turning sand into thoughts." Economist Charles Jones also holds a strong optimism towards Silicon Valley. He recently took a leave of absence from Stanford University to join a research institute under the top AI company Anthropic. In a recent academic paper, Jones pointed out that the long-term average growth rate per capita in the US has been maintained at around 2%, but "if AI ultimately almost automates all weak links in the economy, the growth rate may significantly accelerate, with an annual growth rate expected to exceed 5%." He bluntly stated that AI "is likely to be the most transformative technology of modern times." Another member, Xbox CEO Asha Sharma, takes a more practical optimistic approach. Although she said she "absolutely believes in AI," as a business leader, she rarely chooses not to prioritize AI features on Xbox game consoles, citing that "our console players aren't excited about that experience." However, this does not mean she harbors doubts. Internal Doubts and Needs for Impact Despite Wash's intention to introduce external wisdom through workgroups to drive a change in the Federal Reserve's views, doubts and cautious sentiments still exist within the Federal Open Market Committee, which actually holds the power to vote on interest rates. The meeting minutes for June, released this week, show that committee members discussed whether AI could enhance productivity. Some participants agreed that productivity would accelerate, but they emphasized, "There is considerable uncertainty about the timing and magnitude of potential productivity gains," and these improvements are expected to lag behind the current demand stimulus from AI applications. At the same time, the full bet by US tech companies on AI has begun to heat up the economy. New York Fed Chair William Williams expressed concerns on Thursday, stating that the AI boom is driving up electricity and semiconductor prices. He described the price increase as steep, with some component prices doubling or even tripling. Williams pointed out that AI is creating a "demand shock," and it is unclear whether supply can grow in sync to curb inflation. It is reported that the Federal Reserve did not provide a rigid deadline for the workgroups to complete their tasks, but Wash previously stated that he expects to push for relevant reforms this year, with each group expected to complete their work by the end of the year. The Federal Reserve's next policy meeting is scheduled for the end of July, with market expectations generally anticipating that interest rates will remain unchanged.