Escalation of US-Iran conflict drags down Persian Gulf shipping volume by 70%; Goldman Sachs: Resumption of Middle East oil production process may be interrupted.

Goldman Sachs Group pointed out that if the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalate again and disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, the process of restoring oil supplies in the region could be hindered. According to Goldman Sachs' estimates, in June of this year, crude oil production in the Persian Gulf region was still about 10.5 million barrels per day lower than pre-war levels. Analysts led by Yulia Zhetkova Grigsby stated in a report on July 8th: "Although oil-producing countries in the Middle East have begun to restart closed wells in the past month, a disruption in shipping in the Strait of Hormuz could slow down the pace of production recovery." This week, the global energy market was severely shaken by the escalation of tensions between the US and Iran, with Brent crude oil futures briefly rising above $80 per barrel. After the US and Iran launched attacks on each other for a second consecutive day, ship traffic in the strait came to a virtual standstill, putting the fragile peace agreement to the test, especially after multiple attacks on merchant ships in the waterway. US President Trump announced on Wednesday that the temporary peace agreement between the US and Iran had been terminated, and the US also revoked the waivers allowing Iran to export oil. However, he added that negotiations with Iran could still continue. On Wednesday, the US Central Command stated that the US military had begun implementing "strong strikes" to make it pay a heavy price for attacking shipping. According to the Iranian Mehr news agency, explosions were heard on an island near the strait, and Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said Tehran would respond. The US Treasury also revoked a sanction waiver that allowed Tehran to sell oil, reversing a key element of the temporary peace agreement with the Islamic Republic. Three ships were attacked in the waterway on Tuesday, including a liquefied gas transport ship and a Saudi oil tanker, making it the most number of incidents since the agreement took effect last month. Goldman Sachs analysts stated: "Recent attacks on tankers highlight the high risks of crossing the strait, and with the current uncertain ceasefire status, shipping companies may hesitate, putting pressure on tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz in the short term." Goldman Sachs estimates that after recent tanker attack incidents, oil shipping in the Persian Gulf region has fallen to around 70% of normal levels; in the first ten days after the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, this data had temporarily recovered to over 80% of pre-war flow rates. The report points out that current Persian Gulf shipping volumes and oil prices face two-way risks. If the 60-day negotiations continue and shipping companies receive security guarantees and Iranian oil export waivers are restored, shipping is expected to gradually recover by the end of July; otherwise, if negotiations fail and attacks on tankers escalate, shipping volumes may continue to decline. Last month, as shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz resumed, investment banks such as Goldman Sachs lowered their oil price forecasts. Goldman Sachs analysts also warned at that time that the risk of oversupply of crude oil could resurface.