International Energy Agency: UAE's crude oil production reached a historical high in June, intensifying geopolitical supply game.

The latest monthly report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) shows that the UAE's daily average crude oil production rose to 4.1 million barrels in June, setting a new historical record. This number surpasses the previous peak of 4 million barrels per day in 2020, when the UAE significantly increased production during a brief price war with Saudi Arabia over OPEC+ policies. This new record high comes shortly after the UAE's withdrawal from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), further confirming that the country's response to supply disruptions caused by the Iran conflict is more aggressive than any other Persian Gulf country. Since the conflict erupted, the UAE's aggressive strategy has become increasingly apparent. On one hand, they have utilized their own large fleet of ships, and on the other hand, they have leased additional ships controlled by the South Korean Sinokor Group - which now owns the world's largest fleet of very large crude carriers. Some of these vessels operate in a "dark ship" manner, turning off their transponders to transport crude oil out of the Persian Gulf without being monitored. The strong momentum in production resumption mostly occurred before the recent attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Prior to these attacks, the UAE announced its withdrawal from OPEC at the end of April in order to escape the organization's production limits and fully promote its production expansion plan. The rebound in Persian Gulf oil exports, coupled with the fragile peace agreement between the US and Iran, briefly shifted the global market from tight supply to signs of oversupply in some key areas, erasing the cumulative oil price increases during the war. However, the situation changed again on Wednesday as US President Trump declared the ceasefire agreement to be effectively null after the exchange of fire in the Persian Gulf. The US military launched consecutive attacks on targets within Iran for two days, while Tehran launched attacks on Bahrain and Kuwait. Brent crude futures briefly exceeded $80 per barrel earlier this week, but fell back below $76 per barrel on Friday. Data from the International Energy Agency also shows that other major oil-producing countries in the Gulf have also increased production, but have not yet returned to pre-war levels. Saudi Arabia's daily average production in June was 7.3 million barrels, an increase of 900,000 barrels from the previous month; Kuwait's daily average production rose to 1.4 million barrels, and Iraq's rose to 2 million barrels. The agency also pointed out that despite the increase in crude oil flows, refining activities in the Gulf region have been slow to respond, and refined oil exports are still less than half of pre-conflict levels.