Unmanned delivery has exploded in growth, with industry growth rate of 517%, and the "double monopoly" dominating 80% of the market.

In June 2026, China's unmanned delivery logistics vehicle track saw a crucial turning point. The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, EO Intelligence, and China Automotive Research Institute successively released industry reports, all pointing to the same conclusion: the industry has transitioned from technology validation to a period of commercial explosion at scale. The total number of vehicles in the industry increased by 517% year-on-year in 2025, and by the first quarter of 2026, it had reached nearly 50,000 units - this growth rate ranks first among all sub-scenarios of autonomous driving. Among them, Ninebot Intelligence (including Cainiao) with 25,000 units accounted for 53.2% of the market share, firmly ranking first in the industry, with a 17 percentage point lead over the second place. It was learned that in June of this year, several institutions successively released industry reports: the China Transportation Association Logistics Investment and Financing Branch (referred to as "China Federation") released the "2025-2026 China Unmanned Delivery Logistics Vehicle Market Development Report", EO Intelligence released the "2026 Global RoboVAN Market Development Insight Report", and China Automotive Institute, together with the Wei Inspections and other testing agencies, collaborated with representatives from universities and enterprises to compile and release the "Unmanned Driving Equipment Testing and Certification Industry Development Report". All three reports show explosive growth in unmanned delivery logistics vehicles. The total number of unmanned delivery logistics vehicles in the market exceeded 37,000 units in 2025, up to 517% from 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 508.3% over the past three years, and by the first quarter of 2026, the total number of vehicles had already approached 50,000. The industry's demand side is accelerating reshaping, and the feasibility of service and business models is continuously verified. The scale explosion of unmanned delivery logistics vehicles has reached a high degree of certainty. According to the China Federation report, the concentration of the Chinese unmanned delivery logistics vehicle industry is relatively high, with a duopoly pattern emerging. By the end of 2025, Ninebot Intelligence had a total of 16,000 units, accounting for 43.2% of the market share, and by the first quarter of 2026, the total number of units had surpassed 25,000, increasing its market share to 53.2%, opening up a lead of 17 percentage points compared to the second place, New Stone (with a market share of 36.2%). The industry is transitioning to a commercial phase with a high degree of certainty of scale explosion, with two main factors: macro-environmental factors and economic models are profitable. From a macro-environmental perspective, as mentioned above, with continuous policy support for autonomous driving, the application of unmanned logistics vehicles in the transportation market has transitioned from "early exploration and initial support" to "commercial pilot and scale application" stages. In December 2024, the State Council issued the "Opinions on Accelerating the Construction of a Unified and Open Transportation Market", providing broader space and policy guidance for the application of unmanned driving logistics vehicles in the transportation market; in June 2026, the Ministry of Transport and five other departments issued the "Innovation Action Plan for Typical Applications of 'Artificial Intelligence + Transportation'", including the "end-to-end large model" for the first time in the policy support category, indicating that autonomous driving technology route has been officially endorsed, and the industry entry threshold is shifting from "approval system" to "standard system". Looking at the industry from the perspective of the reports, according to EO Intelligence's "2026 Global RoboVAN Market Development Insight Report", the unmanned delivery logistics vehicle industry has gone through four major development stages since 2016, completing a decade-long leap from technological exploration to the commercial landing of the industry. The industry has now entered a new cycle of commercial scale and operational closure. Leading companies have achieved deliveries of tens of thousands of unmanned delivery vehicles, and in 2026, the industry's autonomous driving mileage has exceeded 100 million kilometers, marking the industry's official entry into the era of commercial operation at scale. In addition, according to the jointly released report by China Automotive Research Institute, the domestic unmanned driving equipment industry has entered the stage of large-scale landing. From the perspective of scenes, unmanned logistics vehicles lead in terms of cargo volume. In 2024, the number of unmanned logistics vehicles was about 10,000 units, and by the first quarter of 2026, the number had increased to about 47,000 units. The report predicts that the industry's total number of vehicles will exceed 100,000 in 2026. In fact, the scale explosion of unmanned delivery logistics vehicles has a high degree of certainty, based mainly on two dimensions: the macro-environment is ready for explosion, and the micro-environment economic model has a profitable basis. From a macro-environmental perspective, as mentioned earlier, against the background of continuous strengthening of policies on autonomous driving, unmanned logistics vehicles as a core application area, with the continued opening of road rights trials and commercial licenses in core cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, where more than 250 cities have already opened road rights; technologically, software and hardware implementation of multimodal fusion perception, end-to-end model and real no-map technology enable vehicles to handle extremely complex road conditions. The micro-environment is a necessary condition for landing. Cost is the core obstacle to commercialization at scale, but the industry's economic model has a profitable basis. Costs in software, hardware, and vehicle equipment for unmanned logistics vehicles continue to decrease, with sensor costs down nearly 50% from 2023, and total vehicle BOM costs compressed from over 200,000 yuan to tens of thousands. Operating costs per kilometer have dropped to less than 0.5 yuan, only one-third to one-half of the delivery costs of traditional truck models - this means that the economic accounts for unmanned delivery vehicles are viable, and the industry's growth is shifting from "policy-driven" to "market-driven". High prospects in the global market, commercial models becoming successful In reality, unmanned delivery logistics vehicles have various operational advantages in terms of economics and efficiency, not only in the Chinese market but are also revolutionizing city delivery on a global scale. Looking at the prospects of industry development, according to the "2026 Global RoboVAN Market Development Insight Report", the market size for naked vehicle sales alone is expected to reach 50 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 96.8% from 2024 to 2030. Both domestic and overseas markets have high expectations for the future, which will undoubtedly attract more industrial capital, and with a profitable economic model as a basis, the industry's commercial model is gradually maturing. The industry's commercial model has transitioned from simply selling vehicles to a hybrid model of "vehicle sales + FSD subscription + on-demand services", which has high gross margins, significant profit margins, and sustainable cash flow, able to provide periodic expansion to operating manufacturers. The evolution of the industry's commercial model goes beyond just sales. In June of this year, Dongfeng Automobile teamed up with Ninebot Intelligence to release a series of jointly developed Dongfeng OpenVAN unmanned logistics vehicles, with Ninebot launching the "Ninebot Smart Drive Zelos Inside" ecological cooperation platform - this marks leading companies transitioning from "vehicle salesmen" to "L4 technology enablement providers", with their commercial boundaries extending from end delivery to the entire commercial vehicle and special equipment sector. Industry analysts liken this to the "Huawei HI model" in the commercial vehicle sector, with Zelos Inside presenting a more open feature in the form of an L4 "AI base" that can be widely integrated. China is the world's largest market for unmanned delivery logistics vehicles, covering over 300 cities. The industry's early concentration is relatively high, with Ninebot Intelligence and New Stone forming a duopoly in the industry. According to the "2026 Global RoboVAN Market Development Insight Report", the top four market share holders in the Chinese RoboVAN market in 2025 were Ninebot Intelligence, New Stone, White Rhino, and Cainiao. In early 2026, Ninebot and Cainiao completed strategic integration, with the "Cainiao unmanned vehicle" sector being incorporated into Ninebot, launching dual-brand operations. After the merger, the RoboVan fleet scale reached 25,000 units in the first quarter of the year, with a market share of 54%, firmly ranking first in the world. The strategic integration of Ninebot and Cainiao is referred to by the market as a "super aircraft carrier" for unmanned freight transport. Ninebot has full-stack self-developed capabilities from vehicle-grade chips, core algorithms to complete vehicle platforms, and now has the production capacity for large-scale commercialization, while Cainiao relies on a global-leading smart logistics network and Alibaba's ecosystem resources, with deep assets in logistics scenarios and globalization. The merger of the two is certainly greater than the sum of its parts. Both parties aim to create an "open, intelligent, and global new generation of smart transportation network", and on the ecological front, it has already opened up a significant lead compared to its peers. As the "unicorn" riding the wave, Ninebot Intelligence is the strong one Ninebot's leadership does not come from a single advantage but is composed of a composite barrier made up of scale, data, capital, and ecosystem - which gives it a dual lever effect of "growth x share" in a high-growth industry. First-mover advantage and scale barriers are its most direct moats. Ninebot vehicles have been deployed and operating in over 300 cities in more than 20 countries globally, and the 25,000 unit scale makes its marginal data collection costs close to zero. Behind this scale is the autonomous driving technology foundation that the core team has been accumulating since 2013 - a full-stack self-developed L4 level technology system supports a rich product matrix, enabling a quick response to different scenario demands. Entering 2026, Ninebot's ecosystem layout has entered a concentrated realization period. In January, Cainiao became a strategic shareholder through cash investment by injecting its unmanned vehicle business, forming the world's largest RoboVan joint fleet; in June, it teamed up with Dongfeng Automobile to release the Dongfeng OpenVAN brand, with four L4-level models making their debut and securing over 4,000 orders; in the same month, Alipay reached instant capacity cooperation with Ninebot and Cainiao, with Cainiao's unmanned vehicle simultaneously contracting with Cainiao's global supply chain, Taobao Flash Purchase, Huading Cold Chain, Antong Capacity, Chain Four and other five industry benchmark customers. These moves mark that the strategic integration of Ninebot and Cainiao has shifted from "organizational integration" to "commercial sprint" - C-end traffic entry (Alipay) and B-end full scenario ecosystem (five customers covering cross-border, instant retail, cold chain, bulk, and urban distribution) simultaneously opened up, unmanned vehicles are transitioning from "pilot tools" to "logistics infrastructure". The significance of scale is not just in market share numbers. The volume of real road condition data generated daily by 25,000 vehicles is unparalleled by any test fleet. Each vehicle encounters corner cases (extreme scenarios) per kilometer, which are then transmitted back to the cloud for simulation platform analysis. After thousands of variant scenarios are generated through world model generalization, the algorithm iteration is deployed back to the vehicles via OTA - this closed loop operates daily, enabling Ninebot's algorithm iteration frequency to far exceed that of other players in the industry. At the same time, Ninebot's commercial model is undergoing a qualitative change. From early vehicle sales, to a hybrid model of "hardware + subscription services", and then to the L4 technology-enabled platform represented by Zelos Inside - the combination of the three modes has shifted Ninebot's revenue structure from "one-time deal" to continuous service income, significantly improving profit quality. KA major customer orders ensure scale stability, unit costs continue to decline, positive cash flow feedback to scale expansion, forming a self-driven growth flywheel. This positive cycle of "scale-data-technology-business" is pushing Ninebot from being just a "vehicle manufacturer" to becoming a "commercial vehicle L4 infrastructure provider" Hangzhou XZB Tech. The launch of the Zelos Inside model marks that the company is no longer satisfied with just selling cars but is seeking to become the underlying operating system for the smart transformation of commercial vehicles - the anchor point for its valuation by the capital market will also shift from "sales volume" to "connectivity".