"Gold price upward trend not over"! Despite the disturbance of war, Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish stance: $4900 target still "firmly fixed".

Gold futures fell on Monday after two consecutive trading days of gains. Over the weekend, tensions between the United States and Iran escalated again, driving up oil prices and triggering concerns in the market about rising inflation and interest rates, putting pressure on the zero-yield asset gold. After a series of conflicts, the two countries finally agreed to temporarily halt recent hostile actions, which had previously threatened to disrupt the negotiations aimed at ending the conflict. The rise in energy prices due to geopolitical conflicts has exacerbated concerns in the market about inflation and rising interest rates, which usually bodes ill for gold, which does not generate interest income. Meanwhile, the US dollar index recorded its largest monthly increase in nearly a year, further increasing pressure on gold. A stronger dollar means that gold priced in dollars becomes more expensive for overseas buyers. ADM Investor Services stated in a report, "Gold prices continue to face pressure as traders wait and see on the prospects of US-Iran negotiations, and recent conflict escalation poses the risk of energy prices rising again." Samantha Dart, Co-Head of Global Commodity Research at Goldman Sachs, stated in a report, "Hawkish Fed positioning is undermining the theme of currency debasement," and the market has already begun pricing in a Fed rate hike this year due to inflation concerns. While headwinds persist in the short term, "the bullish trend for gold is not over." "We continue to see further upside for gold, driven by both structural factors and cyclical factors." Dart wrote, "From a structural perspective, the diversification of emerging market central banks' portfolios following the freezing of Russia's Central Bank assets in 2022 remains the core rationale for our end-2026 gold price target of $4,900 per ounce." Goldman Sachs also cited a recent survey by the World Gold Council, which found that a record 45% of the 76 central banks surveyed between February and May expect to increase their gold reserves further in the next 12 months. The Comex gold near-month contract (July delivery) fell 1.4% on Monday, closing at $4,022.30 per ounce; the near-month silver contract fell 1.7%, closing at $58.175 per ounce, both settling at their lowest prices of the year so far.