The US-Iran agreement is pushing for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz! Shipping volume is expected to recover to nearly 50% of pre-war levels within a month.

On the 14th, the United States and Iran announced reaching a ceasefire memorandum of understanding. President Trump of the United States posted on social media that the agreement between the United States and Iran has "now been completed" and he has "authorized" the Strait of Hormuz to be "open for free passage" and for the U.S. Navy to immediately lift related blockades. After the official signing of the agreement on June 19th, the Strait of Hormuz will "reopen" on that day. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed that the text of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding has been finalized. The signing ceremony of the "Islamabad Memorandum" will take place in Switzerland on June 19th. Before the US-Iran conflict erupted, the oil transported through the Strait of Hormuz was typically around 20 million barrels per day, accounting for about one-fifth of global daily oil transport. Shipping industry estimates indicate that after more than three months of conflict, around 500 commercial vessels are still stranded in the Gulf, and traffic has currently decreased to a trickle. The agreement between the US and Iran is expected to allow the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial global energy transport gateway, to resume navigation. According to ship tracking data from the international maritime information platform "Marine Traffic," the liquefied natural gas (LNG) carrier "Disha" passed through the Strait of Hormuz into the Gulf of Oman on the 15th. This is the first large energy transport vessel to pass through the Strait of Hormuz after the US and Iran reached an agreement. Analysts from the trade data company Kpler stated on Monday that if the agreement reached between the US and Iran can be successfully implemented without major setbacks, the flow of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz is expected to recover to nearly 50% of pre-war levels within a month. Kpler analysts mentioned in a research report that the number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz is expected to increase to 40 per day, compared to around 100 vessels before the US and Israel attacked Iran on February 28th. They estimated that there are approximately 118 oil tankers that can leave the region within 15 days. The concentration of a large number of stranded ships leaving the area should not be seen as a continuous increase in shipping traffic, as the key question remains how many ships will re-enter the Persian Gulf after the backlog of vessels is cleared. Matt Wright, Chief Shipping Analyst at Kpler, stated that there are currently many ships waiting in the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. He added that if the ships are not attacked and there is no threat of mines, commercial shipping companies may consider resuming operations in the Persian Gulf. Lars Barstad, CEO of the oil tanker transportation company Frontline, stated that once the agreement is signed, the ships will quickly resume sailing. Frontline currently operates 80 ships globally, with five oil tankers still stranded in the Persian Gulf. However, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz still faces the risk of potential disruption. The US and Iran seem to have different interpretations of the specifics of the agreement. Iranian official media reported that ships can pass through the Strait of Hormuz free of charge for 60 days, after which Iran and Oman will jointly manage the strait. Vice President Pence of the United States, however, stated that the US expects the Strait of Hormuz to remain open for free passage in the long term. Furthermore, it is still unclear how much of a threat mines pose to ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. While Trump downplayed the importance of this issue, Secretary of State Pompeo told Congress earlier this month that Iran had laid mines in a large area of the strait. The global maritime trade organization Bimco warned on Monday that the threat of mines in the region remains a concern. Jacob Larsen, Director of Security and Safety at Bimco, cautioned ship operators that the security situation in the area remains high-risk. He stated, "Due to the lack of sufficient details, and past overly optimistic security assurances, we believe that the security situation facing the shipping industry is still volatile." "At this stage, we still believe that the risk of ships resuming passage through the strait is very high." Some analysts pointed out that the US-Iran memorandum of understanding will be the first step in achieving stability in the region, but the next phase of negotiations between the two sides will still be complex and difficult. The possibility of a return to the "cycle of war and peace" cannot be ruled out. Additionally, even if the US and Iran do not want to restart full-scale hostilities, Israel may refuse to completely "stand down" in Lebanon and may lobby the US to impose harsh conditions on Iran in terms of nuclear issues, making it more difficult for the US and Iran to reach a final agreement.