Geopolitical tensions linger! Aluminum prices rise for the fourth consecutive time, reaching a four-year high. Bulls aim for $4000 per ton.

The price of aluminum has risen for the fourth consecutive day, reaching the highest level since 2022, continuing its strong upward trend this year. At the same time, US President Trump is making efforts to push for peace negotiations with Iran back on track. On Tuesday, the price of aluminum rose by 1.6% to reach $3775 per ton. Iranian media had previously reported that negotiations between Iran and the US had been paused due to ongoing Israeli attacks on Lebanon. However, President Trump later stated that he had spoken with Israeli officials and negotiations with Iran were progressing rapidly. The ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have forced many smelters in the region, a major global aluminum production area, to halt or reduce production, leading to a 25% increase in aluminum prices this year. Meanwhile, the market remains optimistic about demand prospects, with funds continuously flowing into industrial metals such as copper and aluminum. Furthermore, more signs indicate a tightening supply: on Monday, the premium of aluminum spot prices over three-month futures prices reached the highest level since 2007, peaking at $111.75 per ton. This price difference indicates that market demand for recent supply is increasing. Bloomberg estimates last Friday showed that the total aluminum inventory at the London Metal Exchange (LME), Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), and Shanghai Futures Exchange could only meet global demand for less than five days. Among the six major metals traded on the LME, aluminum has the lowest number of days of available inventory. This is a significant change for the aluminum industry, which has long been plagued by oversupply. Several banks, including JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup, predict that aluminum prices will rise to $4000 per ton. JPMorgan Chase warned that with a severe and prolonged supply gap in the global aluminum market, the industry is heading towards a significant supply-side "black hole". At the time of writing, LME aluminum prices had risen by 1% to $3755 per ton. Copper prices continued their recent uptrend, rising by 0.5% to $13,899.50 per ton.