China Galaxy Securities: electricity consumption growth rate increases month-on-month, while new photovoltaic installations decrease significantly.

China Galaxy Securities released a research report stating that the rise in coal prices, coupled with high temperatures, has reversed the pessimistic electricity price expectations. The latest monthly long-term power purchase prices in Jiangsu and Guangdong have both exceeded the annual long-term contract prices. The National Climate Center predicts that El Nio conditions will occur in May and a moderate to strong El Nio event will occur in the summer and autumn, with a focus on the recovery of electricity demand from a low base. Liaoning and Guangxi have stabilized electricity prices through mechanisms, and attention should be paid to the follow-up situations in other provinces. With the addition of new generating units entering the intensive commissioning stage, the sector is expected to see a dual increase in performance and valuation. In the short term, the fundamentals of new energy are weak, and attention should be paid to policies related to electricity pricing and the catalytic effect of project implementation on the market. Key points from China Galaxy Securities: Event: National Bureau of Statistics releases energy production data for April 2026, and the National Energy Administration releases electricity statistics for April. In April, the growth rate of total electricity consumption in the whole society increased month-on-month driven by high temperatures. In April 2026, the total electricity consumption was 820.5 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 6.0%, significantly higher than the 3.5% in March. The electricity consumption for primary industry, secondary industry, tertiary industry, and urban and rural residents was 112, 558.4, 151.7, and 99.2 billion kWh, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.0%, 5.3%, 8.9%, and 6.0%. Compared to March, the growth rates were -4.7%, +3.3%, +1.2%, and +0.8% respectively, and are expected to be mainly driven by high temperatures. According to CCTV reports, since April, the average national temperature from April 1st to May 7th was 13.3 degrees Celsius, 1.1 degrees higher than the same period in previous years, ranking as the fifth highest since 1961. From January to April 2026, the total electricity consumption in the whole society accumulated to 3334.5 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, with a growth rate 0.2% higher than that from January to March. The electricity consumption for primary industry, secondary industry, tertiary industry, and urban and rural residents was 449, 215.69, 63.51, and 49.76 billion kWh respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.8%, 4.9%, 8.3%, and 3.9%. In April, the growth rates of nuclear and wind power generation continued to be under pressure, while the growth rates of thermal power and photovoltaic power declined, and hydropower increased slightly. In April 2026, the electricity generation from large-scale industrial enterprises was 744.0 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, 1.2% faster than in March. By type, compared to the same period last year, the year-on-year growth rates of thermal power, hydropower, nuclear power, wind power, and photovoltaic power for large-scale industrial enterprises were +3.1%, +12.2%, -8.7%, -5.0%, and +7.1%, with growth rates of -1.1%, +1.4%, +3.1%, +12.3%, and -2.9% compared to March. Nuclear power is mainly affected by major repairs, and wind power is mainly affected by resource conditions. From January to April 2026, the electricity generation from large-scale industrial enterprises was 3123.7 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%. By type, the year-on-year growth rates of thermal power, hydropower, nuclear power, wind power, and photovoltaic power were +3.6%, +9.9%, -4.8%, -3.5%, and +9.8% respectively. In April, due to the high base, the year-on-year growth of new photovoltaic installations significantly decreased. From January to April 2026, the country added 1062.4 million kilowatts of new power generation capacity, a year-on-year decrease of 384.6 million kilowatts or 27%. The new installations of hydropower, thermal power, nuclear power, wind power, and photovoltaic power were 24.5, 280.0, 36.2, 212.6, and 509.1 million kilowatts respectively, with year-on-year changes of -20, +116.2, +36, +97, and -54.47 million kilowatts or -8%, +71%, -%, +5%, and -52%. In April 2026, the country added new power generation capacity of 224.2 million kilowatts, a year-on-year decrease of 326.8 million kilowatts or 59%. The new installations of hydropower, thermal power, nuclear power, wind power, and photovoltaic power were 10.3, 39.7, 24.1, 54.9, and 95.2 million kilowatts respectively, with year-on-year changes of +51, +25, +241, +14, and -36.0 million kilowatts or +98%, +7%, -%, +3%, and -79%, with the sharp decline in the monthly installation of photovoltaic power due to the phased installation impact caused by the new regulations on distributed photovoltaic power last year. Risk factors: risks related to unexpected natural resource conditions, risks of substantial increases in raw material prices, etc.