Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER.US) and Delivery Hero acquisition odds? Bank of America: Antitrust is the biggest variable.

Bank of America Corp released a global research report on May 25, 2026, focusing on the food delivery giant Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER.US) planning to fully acquire the European food delivery platform Delivery Hero. The company confirmed on Saturday that Uber Technologies, Inc. proposed to acquire Delivery Hero for 33 euros per share, with a total market value of approximately 9.8 billion euros and an enterprise value of 11.9 billion euros. Since mid-April, Uber Technologies, Inc. has increased its stake and faced pressure from activist shareholders, causing the stock price to rise significantly in advance of this expected acquisition. The transaction has not yet been finalized, but it marks a clear strategic shift in direction and the formal presentation of a control transaction; Uber Technologies, Inc.'s stake rose to about 19.5% last week, and could reach about 25% after exercising options. The Bank of America canceled its rating on Delivery Hero due to the event-driven valuation. Valuation logic shifts towards strategic value dominance According to the research report, the investment logic is no longer based on operational performance, with valuation increasingly determined by strategic choices, including acquisition expectations, asset portfolio adjustments, and asset sales. Based on the 33 euro per share offer, Delivery Hero is valued at 0.75 times enterprise value/sales, and 12.6 times enterprise value/EBITDA, which is relatively conservative compared to recent industry mergers and acquisitions. However, there are still significant uncertainties in the offer: requiring shareholder approval, facing potential regulatory restrictions, and the possibility of other companies bidding for parts of the assets. As of the report's release, no formal agreement has been reached between the two parties. The major restructuring of the shareholder structure in the past two months laid the groundwork for the transaction: Prosus, which previously held 26.3% of the shares, was forced to reduce its stake to 16.8% due to regulatory requirements; the activist investment firm Aspex increased its stake from 9.23% to 14.55%, publicly pushing Delivery Hero to accelerate its strategic review, sell assets, and replace the CEO; and Uber Technologies, Inc. continued to increase its stake, holding 19.5% directly, with a total stake of 25.1% after exercising options, becoming a key driving force in the deal and driving up Delivery Hero's stock price since mid-April. Antitrust risk: Increasing difficulty in execution The biggest obstacle the transaction faces is antitrust scrutiny. A merger with Uber Technologies, Inc. will bring significant execution risks, as Uber Technologies, Inc. and Delivery Hero operate in 20 overlapping countries, facing immense antitrust scrutiny pressure with significant variations in outcomes across different regions. Antitrust scrutiny is expected to be particularly strict in developed European markets such as Spain, Portugal, Turkey, as well as high-integration markets in Latin America such as Argentina, Chile, where they may face divestment requirements. In addition, the transaction also faces uncertainties such as shareholder approval, other industry competitors bidding for quality assets, which could prolong the transaction period and raise acquisition costs. The Bank of America mentioned that the global food delivery market is showing a clear trend towards duopoly concentration, where economies of scale and logistics capabilities are core competitive advantages, and stricter regulations are further accelerating industry consolidation. The European market is affected by regulatory policies on rider rights and sustainability, leading to rising costs and forming a stable duopoly structure; the Middle East and Africa market is dominated by Delivery Hero, with its subsidiaries Talabat and HungerStation holding approximately 50% of the market share in the Middle East, but high profitability is attracting new players like Meituan; Latin America is the most highly integrated region in the world, with iFood, Delivery Hero's PedidosYa, and Rappi forming a tripod; the Asia-Pacific market is highly competitive, with local super platforms and global giants competing, leading to rapid growth and market fragmentation. Delivery Hero moves away from fundamentals to "No Rating" In terms of valuation, this acquisition corresponds to an expected EV/sales ratio of 0.75 times and EV/EBITDA of 12.6 times for Delivery Hero in 2026, significantly lower than the recent industry average of 1.4 times EV/sales and 16.5 times EV/EBITDA, indicating a conservative valuation. The Bank of America stated that as Delivery Hero's stock price has diverged from fundamentals and is completely driven by the acquisition event, it has officially canceled its previous "underperforming" rating on the company. It warned investors not to rely on the old rating and target price, as there is a high degree of uncertainty regarding the offer price, shareholder positions, potential control premium, and the final strategic outcome. The future trend will depend on shareholder voting, regulatory approvals, and the final strategic result.