Another "Tesla-style" craze! SpaceX has not yet gone public and space stocks have collectively "taken off".
With the highly anticipated entry of SpaceX into the US stock market, investors' fervor for Elon Musk's rocket company inevitably brings to mind the frenzy that Tesla once caused in the electric vehicle sector.
With the highly anticipated landing of SpaceX on the US stock market, investors' enthusiasm for Elon Musk's rocket company is reminiscent of the boom that Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) experienced in driving the electric vehicle sector.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, Tesla, Inc.'s stock price soared, pushing the electric vehicle industry into the mainstream. At that time, relatively unknown car companies also gained favor with capital. This Wednesday, SpaceX officially submitted its first initial public offering application, sparking a similar frenzy - space stocks have been propelled from the market's niche corner to new heights. This enthusiasm has also put pressure on related companies to deliver earnings performances that can support a surge in stock prices.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said SpaceX's IPO marks a "golden moment" for the entire space industry. He said, "This is not just about one company. Just as Tesla, Inc. defined electric cars, the space sector is also experiencing a breakthrough, opening up a whole new frontier."
A basket of key participants and potential beneficiaries of the space race compiled by Bank of America Corp - including Satellogic (SATL.US) and Iridium Communications Inc. (IRDM.US) - has surged 42% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices. Space-themed ETFs have also performed well, with Procure Space ETF (UFO.US) and Tema Space Innovators ETF (NASA.US) achieving double-digit returns this year.
Amid the hot market, SpaceX's grand vision also adds uncertainty: the company hopes to carve out a space in the AI field while planning to deploy a constellation of orbital data centers. Similar to Tesla, Inc. in its early years, investors are beginning to question whether Musk has the ability to juggle so many responsibilities at once.
Eric Talley, a professor at Columbia Law School, said, "Both retail investors and a significant portion of institutional investors are hopelessly infatuated with everything Musk does. Musk serves as an executive in multiple companies, and his energy is being diverted in different directions."
The listing of SpaceX will have a significant impact on the overall market. It will become another mega-cap stock for investment and also serve as a catalyst for a large number of stocks. Based on estimates from relevant institutions comparing SpaceX to listed companies (excluding AI businesses), SpaceX's valuation ranges from $864 billion to $2.25 trillion. For reference, the market value of Tesla, Inc. and Meta (META.US) is less than $1.6 trillion each.
Technology entrepreneur and investor Brett Hurt said, "This is a huge victory for the space economy, as it will raise the valuation of other companies and enhance their ability to raise more funds."
Andrew Chanin, co-founder and CEO of ProcureAM, the manager of Procure Space ETF, believes that this IPO is helping change perceptions of the space industry: "In recent years, this industry has faced criticism."
However, there are still doubts about whether this momentum can continue after SpaceX begins trading.
Eric Diton, president and managing director of The Wealth Alliance, believes that smaller space companies need to prove the reasonableness of their high valuations based on their own merits. He said, "The market will scrutinize them one by one, and my first question is: How do you compete with Elon Musk and SpaceX? Do you have a competitive advantage?"
The divergent paths taken by Tesla, Inc. and its fellow car companies provide investors with an opportunity to see the aftermath of the boom. The stock prices of many electric vehicle companies have fallen from their highs. Rivian (RIVN.US) has dropped 92% from its peak in November 2021; XPeng, Inc. ADR Sponsored Class A (XPEV.US) has fallen 78% since its historical high in November 2020. Meanwhile, Tesla, Inc. has successfully expanded its market value to nearly $1.6 trillion, placing it among the "big seven."
Talley of Columbia University believes that the early success of SpaceX could either inspire or discourage other entrants in the field. "The entry game in the space exploration sector itself is an interesting thing to watch."
Chanin from ProcureAM also emphasized that the space sector is not a "winner-takes-all" situation. He said, "Space is so vast, and we are just scratching the surface. This may give rise to many successful companies, but of course, there will also be some failures."
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