Musk draws up a new blueprint: fully autonomous driving will be popularized nationwide within the year, and 90% of mileage will be controlled by AI in ten years.

On Monday, Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) CEO Elon Musk attended the Smart Mobility Summit in Tel Aviv via video conference, where he made a series of forward-looking predictions on cutting-edge technologies such as autonomous vehicles, humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation, space exploration, and brain-computer interfaces. Musk stated that he expects fully autonomous vehicles without safety attendants to become more widespread in the United States in the second half of this year, with about 90% of driving mileage being completed by autonomous driving in ten years. Autonomous driving to expand nationwide this year, 90% of mileage to be completed by AI in ten years Musk mentioned at the summit that fully autonomous vehicles without safety attendants are already operating on roads in Texas and are expected to expand nationwide within the year. Currently, Tesla, Inc. operates Robotaxi services in Austin, Dallas, and Houston in Texas, primarily using the 2025 Model Y for operations. In November last year, Tesla, Inc. obtained a license to operate ride-sharing services in Arizona. The company has confirmed plans to expand services to seven cities by the first half of 2026, covering Dallas, Houston, Phoenix, Miami, Orlando, Tampa, and Las Vegas, in addition to Austin, for a total of eight cities. The Cybercab, a native operating model designed for autonomous driving services, officially began production in April 2026. This model, first unveiled at the "WE, ROBOT" event in October 2024, operates solely on the FSD system without a steering wheel or pedals and is priced at no more than $30,000. Recent aerial footage shows that the number of Cybercabs parked in the Texas factory has increased from over 40 to more than 70. Musk remains extremely optimistic about the long-term prospects of autonomous driving technology, predicting that in five to ten years, about 90% of driving mileage on the roads will be completed by AI-driven autonomous vehicles. He stated, "By then, personally driving one's own car will be a fairly niche thing." Discrepancies between reality and ideal These predictions continue Musk's longstanding high expectations for autonomous driving. In fact, Musk has made bold predictions about autonomous vehicles for over a decade, but many have not been achieved as per his schedule. Furthermore, Tesla, Inc. faces numerous challenges in its advancement pace. As of May 14, 2026, according to third-party tracking website Robotaxi Tracker, Tesla, Inc. operates only 39 unsupervised Robotaxis on U.S. roads, with 27 in Austin, 5 in Dallas, and 6 in Houston. Journalists who have tested this service have pointed out issues such as long wait times and vehicles being unavailable during certain times, with some drop-off points being far from the passengers' destinations. Since Tesla, Inc. announced the expansion of services to Dallas and Houston on April 19, third-party data showed that the availability in these two locations has fluctuated between 0% and 2%. In terms of deployment scale, Tesla, Inc. lags behind its competitor Waymo, which has deployed about 3,000 fully autonomous vehicles, completes over 500,000 rides a week, and provides 24-hour driverless service. Additionally, Musk previously warned that due to new supply chain restrictions, the initial production volume of Cybercab would be "very slow," with exponential growth expected by the end of the year. Safety concerns on the practical level exist across the industry. The U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) announced this month that Tesla, Inc. is recalling 218,868 vehicles in the U.S. due to rear camera image delay issues, which could increase collision risks. Furthermore, in the past year, NHTSA has received 30 accident reports related to Tesla, Inc.'s autonomous driving system, including 5 involving serious injuries. Last week, Waymo also recalled about 3,800 autonomous taxis in the U.S. due to the risk of vehicles entering flooded areas and high-speed limit zones, raising safety concerns. Siasun Robot & Automation, space exploration, and brain-computer long-term outlook In addition to autonomous driving, Musk also made predictions on other cutting-edge areas during the summit. He mentioned that SpaceX is on the verge of breaking through the technological bottleneck of reusable rocket launch systems, which will greatly reduce the cost of space travel. "We may achieve this goal this year," he noted, stating, "Once this technology matures, human history will reach a turning point, and we will become a civilization heading towards space." In the field of brain-computer interfaces, Musk revealed that Neuralink will perform the first Blindsight device implant surgery later this year, aimed at helping congenitally blind or visually impaired individuals regain vision. He stated that this will provide them with "initial limited vision, but over time, it may reach very precise or even surpass normal vision levels." In addition, the company is also developing technology to help paralyzed patients walk again. Musk also predicted that in about ten years, humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation will be "almost everywhere," and with the release of Siasun Robot & Automation productivity, it is expected to drive economic growth and bring about "universal high income."