Lyon: It is expected that Macau's revenue in May will reach 22.6 billion Macau patacas.

Lyon released a research report stating that they visited multiple casinos in Macau during the Golden Week period from May 2nd. The bank pointed out that as the flow of people in the casinos increased after noon, the minimum bet amount was healthy, with the most common being 1,000 to 2,000 Hong Kong dollars per bet in the mass market area, while the minimum bet amount in the VIP areas was generally as high as 5,000 Hong Kong dollars. They also saw two tables with a minimum bet amount of 10,000 Hong Kong dollars at the City of Dreams. The bank believes that the forecasted total gaming revenue of 22.6 billion Macau dollars for May can be achieved. The bank noted that casinos like MGM China and City of Dreams have introduced new peripheral betting options. They believe that while it may take time for players to adapt, a more diverse selection of games will structurally improve the casino's win rate in the long run. In addition, the bank pointed out that they have observed an increasing willingness of VIP and mass market customers to visit Macau before the non-peak weeks since 2025, expecting a strong finish of about a week after the Golden Week. The bank reiterates their forecast that Macau's GGR in May 2026 will increase by 6.6% year-on-year to 22.6 billion Macau dollars, which is in line with the market's general expectation of 6.3% growth, and they believe the target can be achieved. Lyon believes that the current enterprise value to Ebitda multiple of the Macau gaming industry is about 8.9 times, which is not expensive compared to the average level of 11 to 12 times that the bank believes should be under the new normal. The bank has investment ratings and target prices for six Macau gaming stocks, giving "outperform the market" ratings to GALAXY ENT, with a target price of 47.4 Hong Kong dollars; MGM CHINA, target price of 19.2 Hong Kong dollars; Sands China, target price of 20 Hong Kong dollars. Additionally, they also give a "outperform the market" rating to Melco Resorts (MLCO.US), with a target price of 8.5 US dollars. Lyon has a "hold" rating for WYNN MACAU, with a target price of 5.7 Hong Kong dollars; and a "underperform the market" rating for SJM HOLDINGS, with a target price of 1.7 Hong Kong dollars.