The US-Iran situation has once again shown a glimmer of peace: both crude oil and the US dollar have fallen, while the price of gold has stabilized and is waiting quietly for the agreement to be finalized.
Due to the prospect of the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and signs of progress in a deal between the US and Iran boosting market sentiment, oil prices fell along with the US dollar, while the price of gold remained relatively stable.
Notice that the prospect of the resumption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and progress in the agreement between the US and Iran have boosted market sentiment, causing oil prices to fall along with the US dollar, while gold prices remain relatively stable.
Brent crude oil fell by 2.4% to $105.55 per barrel before narrowing its losses. Earlier, US President Trump announced that the US will start guiding ships not involved in the Iran conflict through the Strait of Hormuz starting Monday. S&P 500 index futures rose by 0.1% in early trading, but later pared back gains.
In other markets, the US dollar edged lower against most major currencies. The yen strengthened slightly against the dollar at 156.84. Reports suggest that Japan intervened in the market last Thursday to support its currency. US bond futures rose.
Trump described discussions with the Iranian government as "very positive," following Tehran's receipt of Washington's response to its latest proposal to end the conflict. Despite lingering uncertainty, these measures could pave the way for smoother energy flows and a potential agreement.
According to the semi-official Tasnim news agency, Iran's proposal calls for a complete end to the conflict within 30 days, along with guarantees of no further attacks. The plan reiterates Iran's previous demands, including the withdrawal of US troops from the region, lifting of sea blockades, lifting of sanctions, and payment of compensation.
Iran stated that it has received a response from the US through Pakistan and is currently reviewing it. Additionally, a senior Iranian official warned on Monday that any US intervention in the Strait of Hormuz would be considered a violation of the ceasefire agreement.
The latest news has added momentum to the month-long rally in the stock market. Traders are focusing more on the signs of business resilience and the efforts to turn a fragile ceasefire into lasting peace, along with the strong US economy indicated by the S&P 500 index's fifth consecutive weekly gain.
Data shows that about 81% of companies in the S&P 500 exceeded earnings expectations in the first quarter. Emerging market stocks reached historic highs by the end of April, and an Asian stock index almost recovered from the war-induced declines.
Risk appetite has expanded beyond the stock market, with high-yield credit spreads nearing multi-year lows and retail investors flooding into prediction markets and zero-day options. Despite pressures such as the Iran conflict, oil prices above $100, and the Fed signaling "long-term higher rates with high energy costs," the rally has continued.
Joe Gilbert, portfolio manager at Honest Asset Management, noted that while the market is patient with uncertainty and focuses on the positive aspects of conflicts, the economic damages may become more tangible in the coming months.
Amid traders' focus on Trump's plan to guide some ships through the Strait of Hormuz and progress in the US-Iran agreement, gold prices have remained relatively stable.
After experiencing consecutive declines for the second week in a row last Friday, gold prices hovered around $4630 per ounce in early trading.
Gold's recovery hindered by rising inflation risks
Conflicts keeping energy prices high have reduced hopes for central bank interest rate cuts, which is unfavorable for non-interest-bearing gold. Since the start of the war at the end of February, gold has fallen by about 12%.
At the time of writing, spot gold rose by 0.3% to $4,628.88 per ounce. Silver rose by 0.8% to $75.96 per ounce. Platinum and palladium also rose. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which measures the US dollar's value, fell by 0.1%.
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