Preview of US Stock Market | The three major stock index futures rose together, and tonight the market will face three tests: retail data, Trump, and Powell.

1. On April 21 (Tuesday) before the US stock market, the futures of the three major US stock indexes rose, with Dow futures up 0.59%, S&P 500 index futures up 0.39%, and Nasdaq 100 index futures up 0.46%. 2. As of press time, the German DAX index rose by 0.27%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell by 0.14%, the French CAC 40 index fell by 0.24%, and the European Stoxx 50 index rose by 0.18%. 3. As of press time, WTI crude oil rose by 0.29% to $87.67 per barrel. Brent crude oil fell by 0.04% to $95.44 per barrel. Market News Tonight the market will face three tests, retail data, Trump, and Powell. At 20:30 tonight, the US retail sales data for March will be released, the first hard data since the outbreak of the US-Iran war, which will highlight its impact; at the same time, Trump will participate in a financial program, with the Iran topic likely unavoidable. Later at 22:00, Powell's nomination hearing for Fed chairman will be held, affecting whether he can take office smoothly in May. Three consecutive tests await. Before the nomination hearing, a new variable arises: Republican senators turn against, Powell's appointment as Fed chairman is blocked, and Powell may be forced to remain in office. US President Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chairman, and he will attend the confirmation hearing held by the US Senate Banking Committee on April 21. Currently, it appears that Warsh's confirmation as Fed chairman has actually been blocked, not by opposition from the Democrats, but by North Carolina Republican Tillis - who is dissatisfied with Trump's treatment of Powell and the Fed, and has stated that he will not support any nominees until the Justice Department resolves the investigation into Powell. This unprecedented situation ironically indicates that Trump's persistent attacks on Powell may actually prolong his time as Fed chairman. JP Morgan switches to bullish again after a recent downgrade: AI profit engine restarts, S&P 500 to reach 7600 by the end of the year. Morgan Stanley raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 index to 7600 points on Tuesday, citing profit growth driven by artificial intelligence (AI) and the technology sector. It is worth noting that just a few weeks ago, the bank had downgraded related forecasts, and the situation in the US-Iran ceasefire also provided support for market sentiment. The adjusted target implies that, compared to the closing price of 7109.14 points on Monday, the index still has about 6.9% upward potential. Last month, this Wall Street firm had lowered its target for the S&P 500 index from 7500 points to 7200 points. At the same time, Morgan Stanley also raised its annual earnings forecast for the index from $315 per share to $330 per share, and raised its earnings target for 2027 from $355 per share to $385 per share. "The Big Short" Burry speaks out: US stocks currently face no risk of "sharp top" collapse, but beware of tech stock profit overstatement of 42%. Michael Burry, the "Big Short" investor known for successfully predicting the 2008 subprime crisis, has recently released a series of key market views. He has stated that while the current sharp rise in US stocks is not expected to immediately turn into a catastrophic collapse, detailed data prove that Wall Street has systematically overestimated the true profits of major tech giants by more than 42% over the past decade, with ordinary investors paying the price. Burry released an in-depth analysis on his Substack account, analyzing over a thousand annual reports of major tech companies in the Nasdaq 100 index, and concluded that the profits believed by investors over the past decade were 42% higher than the actual profits. Why are US stocks no longer afraid of US-Iran conflict? Analysts reveal: Rate cut expectations act as ballast. Over the weekend, tensions escalated between the US and Iran, but this did not have a significant negative impact on the financial markets. Despite a 8% surge in the VIX index (currently at 18.87) and a 5%-6% rise in oil prices, the US stock market remained remarkably stable. Analysts believe that rate cut expectations from the Fed support stability in the bond market, which is a key reason for the stable performance of the US stock market. Seeking Alpha analyst Damir Tokic stated that the US-Iran situation over the weekend did not cause much negative reaction in the market, "probably because the bond market did not react significantly. Given the stable yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds, stable inflation expectations, and the market's continued belief that the Fed will cut rates in 2026, the bond market has not yet priced in the inflation scenario." Individual Stock News Halliburton (HAL.US) exceeds earnings expectations in Q1, with Latin American revenue up 22% offsetting the impact of the Middle East conflict. Halliburton's adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter exceeded analysts' average expectations. Despite a decrease in net revenues from its drilling and evaluation division due to the Middle East conflict by about 2-3 cents per share, strong performance in international markets offset some of the impact - with revenue in the Latin American region surging 22% year-on-year. As the world's largest fracking service provider, Halliburton's Middle East and Asia business accounted for 26% of revenue last year, while competitor SLB's revenue from that region accounted for as high as one-third. Analysts pointed out that the growth in the company's international business effectively offset the weakness in the North American market, leading to an "unexpectedly strong" performance. In the long term, the demand for rebuilding energy infrastructure in countries after the conflict may bring new growth opportunities for Halliburton and its competitors. Engine maintenance demand offsets oil price impact, GE Aviation (GE.US) Q1 performance exceeds expectations, expects full-year profits to reach the high end of guidance. Despite the Iran conflict causing a surge in fuel costs and supply chain disruptions, GE Aviation delivered a better-than-expected quarterly performance due to strong demand in air travel. At the same time, the company expects full-year profits to reach the high end of expectations, but warns that high oil prices, fuel supply restrictions, and global growth slowdown may bring short-term impacts. GE Aviation's first-quarter adjusted sales reached $11.6 billion, up nearly 30% year-on-year, exceeding the market's expected $10.7 billion. Operating profit increased by 18% year-on-year to reach $2.5 billion, higher than the average analyst expectation of $2.24 billion, with an adjusted earnings per share of $1.86, higher than the analyst expectation of $1.60, and better than $1.49 in the same period last year. Farewell to the shadow of "collapse"! UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH.US) Q1 profits far exceed expectations, raising full-year guidance to restore investor confidence. UnitedHealth Group Incorporated announced first-quarter profits far exceeding Wall Street expectations and raised its full-year performance outlook. This indicates progress in rebuilding investor trust for the health giant after a performance collapse a year ago. The financial report shows that UnitedHealth Group Incorporated's first-quarter revenue reached $111.72 billion, a 2.0% increase year-on-year, exceeding expectations by $2.06 billion; adjusted earnings per share were $7.23, higher than the highest analyst expectation. As the Cook era comes to an end, Wall Street closely watches Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) AI blueprint! Can Tim Cook recreate the "Golden Age of Apple"? After leading Apple Inc. for 15 years, Tim Cook announced that he will officially step down as CEO on September 1 this year, to be succeeded by hardware chief John Ternus. What Cook leaves behind is a business empire of Apple Inc. with a market value approaching $4 trillion, with a massive cash reserve and an indestructible hardware ecosystem. The gaze of global stock market investors and Wall Street analysts has bypassed the financial data brilliance of the Cook era, focusing on the core growth theme: in the current wave of generative AI and AI intelligence sweeping the world, how will this tech giant, which heavily relies on consumer electronics hardware profits, leverage its proud Apple super ecosystem and consumer hardware genes to answer a new growth cycle question driven by AI. Hyun Jung Hwang supports Adobe (ADBE.US) annual summit, with Socit Gnrale pouring cold water: Canva's offensive intensifies. The Adobe Summit opened on Monday, with keynote speakers including NVIDIA Corporation's CEO and founder, Hyun Jung Hwang, and Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen. However, the stock research department of Socit Gnrale in Paris expressed before the summit that the content creation platform is facing increasing competitive pressure from Canva. It was reported that the Adobe Summit is the core stage for Adobe to release new services, features, and product upgrades for its creative and marketing software. The 2026 Summit officially opened in Las Vegas on April 20 and held simultaneous online virtual events. SpaceX IPO documents show Musk plans to consolidate control with super voting rights, launches key three-day closed-door meetings with analysts. According to excerpts from the prospectus, SpaceX plans to ensure founder Elon Musk and a few core internal personnel have absolute voting control of the company through a dual-class share structure after the completion of its initial public offering (IPO), with public investors having limited voting rights and legal recourse. At the same time, the draft prospectus also shows that Musk spent $1.4 billion last year to buy SpaceX shares from current and former employees to increase his stake. It is understood that SpaceX will hold a three-day closed-door meeting with analysts this week at its launch site in Texas and a large data center in Tennessee. Upcoming Economic Data and Events 20:30 Beijing time: US Retail Sales M/M for March. 22:00 Beijing time: US March Seasonally Adjusted New Home Sales Annualized Total. Next day 04:30 Beijing time: Weekly API Crude Oil Inventory Changes as of April 17. 22:00 Beijing time: US Senate Banking Committee holds hearing on Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed chairman. Next day 02:30 Beijing time: NYMEX New York Crude Oil May futures will complete the last trading at 02:30 on April 22 due to contract rollover, and the last electronic trading at 05:00. Please pay attention to contract expiration announcements on trading platforms to control risk. In addition, some trading platforms typically expire US oil contracts one day earlier than NYMEX official announcement, so please be aware. Next day 02:30 Beijing time: Fed Governor Waller will speak at the Brookings Institution. Earnings Forecast Wednesday morning: Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. Class A (IBKR.US) Wednesday pre-market: United Airlines (UAL.US), GE Vernova (GEV.US), AT&T (T.US), Boeing Company (BA.US), New Oriental Education & Technology Group, Inc. Sponsored ADR (EDU.US)