Hormuz navigation message revives precious metals, analysts optimistic about gold returning to $5000.

The announcement by Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz to all commercial ships had an impact on the international price of gold and silver on Friday, with both prices rising. Crude oil prices and the US dollar index both decreased. Most Wall Street analysts predict that the price of gold will continue to rise in the coming week. Data shows that on Friday, spot gold rose by 0.92% to $4834.05 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 1.78%; COMEX gold futures rose by 1.01% to $4856.60 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 1.44%. Spot silver rose by 3.27% to $80.9822 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 6.74%; COMEX silver futures rose by 3.09% to $81.720 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 6.04%. Many analysts are bullish, expecting gold prices to return to over $5000. Peter Grant, Senior Metals Strategist at Zaner Metals, said: "The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is a key turning point. Against the backdrop of oil price pressure, this news is expected to alleviate inflation concerns and reignite market expectations for interest rate cuts, both of which are positive for gold." He added that the price of gold is expected to return to over $5000 in the short term. Peter Cardillo, Analyst at Spartan Capital Securities, pointed out in a report that the reopening of the strait is particularly positive for silver, which has the fundamental conditions to strengthen. Industrial demand combined with a rise in safe-haven demand is expected to support the upward trend in silver prices. He also stated that if the situation in the Middle East eases and pushes the US dollar lower and US bond yields decline, there is still room for gold prices to rise further, as a weakening US dollar and low interest rate environment are clearly favorable for gold, which is priced in US dollars and has no interest-bearing income. Marc Chandler, Managing Director of Bannockburn Global Forex, believes: "Gold prices are expected to continue to rise in the coming week and the market will gradually return to the previous trading logic. The selling pressure on gold by major central banks may weaken and buying interest will continue. The resistance level for gold is near $5000, with momentum indicators generally positive. Currently, gold is more of a risk asset than a safe-haven asset for hedging geopolitical conflicts or inflation." Adam Button, Director of Forex Strategies at Forexlive.com, also focused on the gold trend following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. He said: "Gold is a 'peace trade', and the current market trends confirm this. During the conflict phase, gold prices were significantly suppressed by two main factors: leveraging pressure, overcrowded long positions in gold encountered concentrated selling; and emerging markets concentrated selling of gold. Emerging economies with large gold reserves and high dependence on oil imports are under pressure, these countries are selling gold to stabilize their currencies or to purchase oil and balance their international accounts." He further pointed out: "If oil prices remain at $150 high levels, emerging markets are at risk of a currency crisis, more countries will be forced to sell gold reserves to stabilize their currencies, Turkey has already taken such action before. Currently, this risk has largely diminished." Button emphasized that to deal with potential crises, emerging market countries still need to increase their gold reserves further. He said: "Funds are still flowing into the gold market, and gold prices are moving towards $5000." "Gold is no longer as frenzy favored as it was in January, when almost everyone was talking about gold." Button added, "Federal Reserve Chairman nominee Kevin Wash will attend a hearing on the 21st, this event is worth paying attention to. In order to smoothly pass the nomination, he is likely to release a dovish signal, and the market is likely to choose to believe this statement." "I think he will release a dovish policy signal, investors may consider going long on gold at that time." Beware of "buy the rumor, sell the fact" However, the market is not entirely bullish. Alex Kuptsikevich, Senior Market Analyst at FxPro, predicts that gold prices may fall next week. He said: "Gold is gradually recovering lost ground, reaching near $4900, which is also where the 50-day moving average is located, a direct response to the easing of the situation in the Middle East." He also cautioned: "The market needs to beware of the 'buy the rumor, sell the fact' scenario. Although the uptrend in gold has not been broken, the upward momentum has slowed down." "Next week, it is important to pay attention to the performance of gold near the 50-day moving average. If there is an effective breakthrough of $4900, there is a possibility of further upside towards $5300 in the coming weeks; if there is a reversal from that level, which is our more likely scenario, it may signal the end of this uptrend." Focus on US economic data and the Wash hearing With the easing of the situation in the Middle East, market focus is expected to shift back to US economic data, which may affect market expectations for Federal Reserve policy and, subsequently, the movement of precious metals. The confirmation hearing for Kevin Wash as Chairman of the Federal Reserve by the US Senate is scheduled for next Tuesday. It is widely expected that Wash will release a dovish monetary policy signal, which is expected to continue to provide support for the price of gold.