After repeated fluctuations, A-shares are expected to rise again. What are the investment themes? The strategies of the top ten securities firms have arrived.

The latest strategies and viewpoints of the top ten securities companies are as follows: CITIC SEC: Shrinking strategies during the interwar period The smoke gradually fades, the waterways are still closed. Although the negotiating demands of the US and Iran seem to have many differences, the probability of reaching a consensus on core demands is not low. With the risk of war diminishing, the actual impact of war progress and negotiations on the market is weakening. The key variable affecting the market in the future is the actual volume of passage. As the time of the strait's closure lengthens and economic and liquidity uncertainties continue to accumulate, after the general rebound in short covers, the market will focus on shrinking instead of expanding. The four directions of shrinking include AI hardware, resources, cyclical price increases, and dividends. Among these four remaining trends, the main expected differences are in domestic AI hardware and cyclical price increases. In terms of allocation, the focus will continue to be on China's advantages in manufacturing. Huaxi: Approaching 4000 points, will launch another offensive after consolidation Market outlook: Approaching 4000 points, there will be another offensive after consolidation. The phased bottom of the A-shares has been explored, and subsequent focus will be on the high prosperity direction of the political bureau meeting at the end of April and corporate financial reports. In the medium-term, after repeated fluctuations, A-shares are expected to launch another offensive. From the perspectives of liquidity, economic fundamentals, and policies, we believe that the previous adjustment is more of a "pullback in the bull market," rather than indicating the end of the market trend. 1) In terms of liquidity, the rise in oil prices has delayed the expected rate cut by the Federal Reserve, but faced with continued declines in employment and consumer confidence, the possibility of further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve is limited, unless the situation in the Middle East exceeds expectations and keeps international oil prices high for a long time; 2) From the perspective of domestic economic fundamentals, with the upward shift in oil prices, the year-on-year growth rate of the PPI in March turning positive is expected to further increase, which is favorable for driving the gradual improvement of the earnings of all A-share enterprises; 3) On the policy level, the policy of "stabilizing the capital market" strengthens the inherent stability of A-shares. The opinions on deepening the reform of the ChiNext board have been implemented recently, and with the continuous implementation of reform policies, the stability of the capital market is expected to further enhance, making it easier for medium to long-term funds such as social security, insurance, and public funds to enter the market. Regarding industry allocation, it is recommended to focus on: 1) the period of intensive disclosure of corporate financial reports, focusing on high-growth and high-prosperity sectors such as light modules, optical fiber cables, PCB, semiconductor equipment, innovative drugs, and non-ferrous metals; 2) new energy and energy storage related to energy self-sufficiency and controllability. China Galaxy: Market struggles between offense and defense, oil prices determine the situation The market struggles between offense and defense, with oil prices determining the situation: This week, the US-Iran conflict experienced a significant turning point from extreme pressure from Trump's "4-hour destruction of Iran" ultimatum to a temporary ceasefire reached between the two sides under Pakistani mediation. However, the trend of the US-Iran conflict is still unclear, and the Strait of Hormuz remains the focus of the dispute. Considering the recurring and uncertain nature of future developments, it is still necessary to pay attention to the impact of oil price trends on market sentiment and trading structures. After the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict, the rise in oil prices shifted global trading cues towards the inflation logic, dampening the expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, thereby tightening global liquidity, suppressing risk appetite, and creating systematic pressure on equity market valuations. At the same time, high oil prices have a transmission effect on the industry chain's costs and strengthen the logic of energy substitution. As the conflict between the two sides continues, geopolitical uncertainties will dominate the oil price trend. High oil prices will reinforce the inflation trading logic at high levels, leading to the potential dominance of energy substitution and defensive sectors once again. However, if the conflict eases in the future, leading to a volatile decline in oil prices and a resurgence of loose expectations, it will favor the recovery of growth stocks. Industrial: Establishing a unified front embracing prosperity Currently, structure is more important than position. The effectiveness of bottom-up stock selection will gradually increase, establishing a unified front embracing prosperity. As the US-Iran conflict enters a substantive negotiation stage, the A-shares may experience a corrective rebound due to the restoration of risk appetite, but the concerns about the sustainability and resilience of the subsequent recovery remain due to potential fluctuations in the negotiations. Considering that Iran's demands are currently high and its stance is firm, the 10 conditions it has put forward may be difficult for the US to immediately agree to, leading to potential risks of repeated negotiations in the future. However, structurally, we believe that the main contradiction that will determine future market pricing will shift from external geopolitical risks to internal prosperity cues. In summary, the main prosperity cues will gradually replace the macro geopolitical influences from top-down approaches, becoming the main contradiction for market pricing. External disturbances cannot obstruct the pursuit of prosperity directions by the market, establishing a unified front embracing prosperity, with internal prosperity becoming the optimal "safe haven" to withstand external disruptions in the future. Therefore, considering the current emphasis on structure over position, as the effectiveness of bottom-up stock selection gradually increases, the more important focus will be on taking control of the structure. Zhongtai: Institutional funding favors large-cap growth stocks This week, institutional risk appetite has rebounded, with a clear shift in style towards large-cap growth stocks. In terms of leveraged funds, margin balances and trading activity have both rebounded, with funds mainly flowing into the electronics and non-ferrous metal sectors. In terms of industry allocation, institutions are focusing on TMT, while the healthcare sector faces pressure from fund outflows. Soochow: Examining the past and present market through oil prices in the 1970s and now The oil price trends of the 1970s and since 2022 have both experienced a "two-stage rise" under the impact of geopolitical and Middle East events, showing some similarities in rhythm: the first stage is driven directly by geopolitical conflicts (the Fourth Middle East War in 1973, the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022), with oil prices rapidly surging in the short term, then holding at a higher level for a prolonged period. Prior to the first oil crisis, the benchmark oil price rose from $1.6 per barrel in 1970-1972 to $9.7 per barrel in 1973-1977; before the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the benchmark oil price rose from $62 per barrel in 2018-2021 to $83 per barrel in 2022-2025. The second stage involves the emergence of new geopolitical events or supply shocks (the Iran Revolution in 1979, the US-Iran conflict in 2026), driving a second surge in oil prices, pushing them rapidly higher once again. Taking the second oil crisis in 1979 as an example, although oil prices entered a downward channel after the surge, the central range from 1979-1982 (at $35 per barrel) was significantly higher than the post-first crisis level (1973-1977 at $9.7 per barrel). The fundamental reason for the rising central range of oil prices after the two oil crises in the 1970s lies in the transfer of oil pricing power from the Western "Seven Sisters" to OPEC. Oil-producing countries took advantage of the crisis to reclaim pricing power, anchoring oil prices to a new platform. At the same time, slow production capacity replacement on the supply side, panic hoarding by various countries on the demand side, coupled with global stagflation at that time, enabled high oil prices to be sustained for a long period. Looking ahead, the priority of energy security has increased, shifting the oil price pricing logic from a single supply-demand to a multi-dimensional framework of "supply-demand+cost+strategy": the supply side faces geopolitical disturbances and a prolonged recovery cycle for production capacity, while the demand side is supported by strategic inventory filling, and OPEC+'s policy intention to maintain high oil prices is strengthening. It is expected that the central range of oil prices will not fall back to pre-US-Iran conflict levels; however, factors such as global demand elasticity, development of alternative energy sources, and policy regulations do not support a significant rise in oil prices, making a dramatic surge similar to the 1970s unlikely, with overall prices expected to rise modestly. Huajin Securities: How will the bottom volatility evolve? Currently, A-shares may have bottomed out in the short term, continuing the trend of strong bottom volatility. Industry allocation: in the short term, the focus will continue to be on technology companies and some cyclical industries such as CKH HOLDINGS. (1) In the short term, high-performance in technology and some cyclical industries may be relatively advantageous. Firstly, looking back at history, industries that have governmental support and positive industrial trends tend to perform well during bottom volatility. Secondly, industries with high-performance and relatively low valuations tend to outperform during second or third bottoming phases. Thirdly, at present, high-performance technology and some cyclical industries may be relatively advantageous in the short term: firstly, as we are likely in a period of bottom volatility, industries with positive governmental support and industry trends, such as technology innovation and anti-concussion policies focusing on technology and cyclical industries, AI hardware demand driving AI innovation, rising commodity prices due to hardware, and other related factors may continue to rise in prosperity; secondly, even if there is a second bottoming in the short term, high-performance technology and some cyclical industries may still be relatively advantageous, as transportation, non-ferrous metals, TMT, and utilities may have higher first-quarter earnings growth. (2) Growth-oriented sectors with low PEG ratios, including power equipment, media, and automobile industries, and value-oriented sectors with low valuations such as non-financial finance, food and beverage, and agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industries. (3) It is recommended to continue to allocate on a dip in the short term: focusing on sectors with positive governmental support and industrial trends, such as communication (AI hardware), electronics (AI hardware, semiconductor), electric vehicles (AI power, energy storage), non-ferrous metals, chemicals, innovative drugs, and defense industries (commercial aerospace); and fundamental industries that may have improved or rebounded, such as brokerages and consumer sectors (food and beverage, social service, commercial retail). BOC International: Entangled in an unsolvable situation, winning in the mainline When faced with new variables, the market often encounters significant difficulties in adaptation and cannot break free from the constraints of addressing unsolvable issues in making allocations, leading to asset pricing falling into a narrative noise, neglecting the mainline that has a solution. The technology sector has continually set new highs under the triple resonance of industry trends, performance expectations, and capitalized pricing, while the market is still engaged in high-frequency debates surrounding the Middle East situation. This indicates that many investors are still stuck in the old framework of explaining everything through geopolitical risks and covering everything with grand uncertainties, while ignoring the true mainline that has sustainable pricing power is not in the Middle East but in technology. As for A-shares, the key variables defining the medium-term direction may not be geopolitical events that are constantly disrupting in the short term and difficult to form stable trading conclusions, but whether technology industry trends are still strengthening, industry mapping is still expanding, and market risk preferences are still willing to pay a premium for "certain prosperous growth." In a sense, the continued new highs in technology are the answer in themselves. Orient: With easing geopolitical concerns, how to deduce the future? This week, the situation in the Middle East has significantly eased, with international oil prices falling, and a slight decrease in US bond yields. Future developments can be divided into three scenarios. In a neutral scenario, international oil prices will fall but remain higher than at the beginning of the year, the Fed will neither cut nor hike interest rates, and negative economic impacts will gradually manifest. Lowered global profit expectations and declining risk appetite are the main characteristics of this scenario, with the approach being to focus on the safe mainline of the manufacturing sector. East Sea Securities: Focus on the market's short and long-term pricing of the Middle East events Focus on the market's short and long-term pricing of the Middle East events. Influenced by expectations of US-Iran negotiations, by April 10, major global stock indices had mostly risen, while industrial commodities had increased, but oil prices had fallen, and US bond yields had also dropped. The market's sensitivity to oil prices has increased, with heightened market volatility from regional price differentials, near-future spreads, and price differentials between different oil products. Due to transportation bottlenecks, demand for secure supply in the short term outweighs arbitrage opportunities, meaning that even though benchmark oil prices have fallen, actual procurement costs for companies may be higher. The US CPI for March showed no clear transmission of energy prices to core inflation, and it is expected that labor costs and demand impacts will be key in the future. As there is still significant uncertainty in the Middle East events, particularly in the pricing effects of oil in the short and long-term, the widespread decline in near-month and spot premiums, coupled with contradictory long-term supply shortages after production losses, are still present. Domestically, after 41 months, the March PPI has returned to positive growth, benefiting industrial enterprises' profits, and attention should be given to overseas demand impacts. Under the backdrop of high oil prices, overseas demand may be affected, but the premium for the integrity of the domestic manufacturing supply chain may increase, with sector recommendations focusing on domestically-driven technology (such as AI hardware under security guarantees, new energy, etc.), service consumption (such as domestic tourism), and innovative pharmaceuticals (such as AI applications, BD transactions), as well as the chemical industry focusing on polyester, dyes, agrochemicals, etc., with increased concentration and improved balance sheets.