State‑Owned Six Banks Saw Consumer Loan Balances Rise Over RMB 55 Billion Last Year, Five Banks Grew Above 16% — Will The Surge Continue In 2026?

In spring 2025, multiple government agencies launched a targeted initiative to stimulate consumption and directed financial institutions to expand credit supply. One year on, the largest state‑owned banks have materially increased consumer lending. According to their annual reports, by the end of 2025 the combined balance of personal consumer loans at the six major state‑owned banks reached approximately RMB 3.33 trillion, representing a net year‑on‑year increase of about RMB 55.6 billion. Excluding Postal Savings Bank of China, five of the six banks recorded annual growth rates in consumer loan balances exceeding 16 percent. China Construction Bank reported the largest outstanding consumer loan book at RMB 68.31 billion, followed by Postal Savings Bank of China at RMB 64.27 billion, Agricultural Bank of China at RMB 60.47 billion, Bank of China at RMB 51.57 billion, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China at RMB 49.90 billion, and Bank of Communications at RMB 39.57 billion.

Measured by incremental flows during the year, Agricultural Bank of China added about RMB 128.3 billion in personal consumer loans, China Construction Bank increased by roughly RMB 115.2 billion, Bank of China by RMB 113.9 billion, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China by RMB 77.8 billion, Bank of Communications by RMB 55.5 billion, while Postal Savings Bank of China expanded by about RMB 28.8 billion. Bank executives have attributed the expansion to coordinated efforts to support domestic demand, including stepped‑up promotional activities, implementation of fiscal‑financial coordination measures and targeted financing for priority consumption sectors. Several institutions also disclosed progress on fiscal subsidy programs for consumer loans: Industrial and Commercial Bank of China reported signing subsidy service agreements with about 1.9 million clients and processing subsidies for more than 30 million eligible transactions; Bank of Communications indicated it had contracted subsidy agreements with 1.4642 million clients covering RMB 16.25 billion of subsidizable consumption; Agricultural Bank of China announced that two million customers had signed subsidy agreements and that subsidies had been provided to over 850,000 clients.

Despite the notable increase in consumer lending, the additional consumer loan issuance last year did not fully offset the contraction in mortgage lending, with the shortfall between new consumer loans and reduced mortgage volumes estimated at about RMB 160 billion. Consumer loan rates remain materially lower than mortgage rates, which constrains profitability. Looking ahead, bank officials signaled a cautious stance for 2026. Regulatory scrutiny of consumer finance and intermediary lending arrangements is expected to affect origination channels, prompting many banks to reduce reliance on third‑party partners and to originate more loans directly. Rising consumer loan non‑performing ratios observed in 2025 have also led institutions to adopt more conservative underwriting and risk management practices. Several banks reported they have not set explicit growth targets for consumer lending this year and have suspended joint lending programs, instead prioritizing higher‑quality segments such as housing‑fund account holders. Taken together, these factors suggest that aggregate new personal consumer loan issuance in 2026 is unlikely to match last year’s pace, and overall growth is expected to moderate.