CMSC: Over 70% of the 2025 annual reports reveal an increase in industrial metal prices.

CMSC released a research report stating that this week, the direction of improvement in business climate is mainly in the upstream resource, information technology, and public utility sectors. In the upstream resource sector, the prices of most industrial metals, gold, and most chemical products have risen; in the midstream manufacturing sector, prices in the new energy industry chain have mostly fallen, and the crude oil freight index has marginally declined. In the information technology sector, DDRM prices have marginally declined, and the year-on-year growth rate of global semiconductor sales in February has expanded. In the consumer services sector, the average year-on-year decline in ice wash retail sales has narrowed, and the price of broiler chickens has risen. Currently, over 70% of the 2025 annual reports have been disclosed, and high profit or improvement areas are mainly concentrated in the price rising chain, TMT, essential consumption, new energy, and medicine. It is recommended to focus on the color, fine chemical, semiconductor, electricity, and pharmaceutical industries that are relatively high in business climate or expected to see improvement in performance. CMSC's main points are as follows: [Focus this week]: As of now, a total of 4,080 listed companies have disclosed their 2025 performance forecasts/reports, with a disclosure rate of 74%. Looking at the median absolute value and marginal changes in various industries, industries expected to have high growth or marginal improvement in 2025 performance mainly include: 1) price rising chain: chemical fibers, chemical raw materials, coking coal, precious metals, energy metals, minor metals, etc.; 2) TMT: computer equipment, components, software development, electronic chemicals, etc.; 3) essential consumption areas with low base or price improvement such as liquor, beverage and dairy, seasoning and fermentation products, textile manufacturing, clothing and home textiles, personal care products, etc.; 4) others: batteries, ground combat weapons, electricity, traditional Chinese medicine, medical devices, pharmaceutical commerce, etc. Combining first-quarter economic data and medium-term business climate, it is recommended to focus on the chemical industry, color, semiconductor, textile and clothing, electricity, electrical equipment, and pharmaceutical industries that are expected to see continuous improvement in performance or sustained high growth. [Information technology]: The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Index rose this week, while the DXI index declined; DRAM storage prices declined this week, with the DRAM index rising month-on-month and the NAND index remaining flat; The year-on-year growth rate of global semiconductor sales in February expanded. [Midstream manufacturing]: Prices in the new energy industry chain mostly fell this week; the photovoltaic price index declined weekly, with component prices flat, and battery cell, silicon wafer, and polysilicon prices falling in the industrial chain; The weekly rolling average of freight throughput at Chinese ports decreased year-on-year, while the rolling average of container throughput increased year-on-year; CCFI and BDI have increased, while CCBFI and BDTI have decreased. [Consumer demand]: Fresh milk prices have fallen, as have comprehensive sugar prices, and the wholesale price of Feitian Maotai has declined; Prices of pigs, piglets, and live pigs have declined. In terms of breeding profits for live pigs, profits have declined for self-bred and purchased piglet breeding; In terms of broiler chicken breeding, the price of broiler chicks has risen. The vegetable price index and the settlement price of corn futures have fallen, while the settlement price of cotton futures has risen; The ten-day average of box office receipts has risen, while the ten-day average ticket price has declined; The average year-on-year decline in ice wash retail sales has narrowed; The index of traditional Chinese medicine materials has declined. [Resource products]: The average daily turnover of construction steel has increased over the past ten days; the prices of steel billets remain the same as last week, while the prices of rebar have fallen. In terms of coal prices, the price of Qinhuangdao mixed power coal has risen, while the price of coking coal at Jingtang port in Shanxi has declined; The settlement prices of coke and coking coal futures have declined. In terms of inventory, the coal inventory at Qinhuangdao port has decreased, while the coking coal inventory at Jingtang port and the coke inventory at Tianjin Port Holdings have increased. The national cement price index has declined. Brent international crude oil prices have risen; the price index of chemical products in China has risen, with most chemical prices rising, among which ethylene glycol, methanol, and styrene have shown the largest increases, while asphalt, PVC, and fuel oil have shown the largest decreases. This week, industrial metal prices have mostly risen, with copper, aluminum, zinc, tin, and lead prices rising, while cobalt and nickel prices have fallen, and most stocks have declined; The futures prices of gold and silver have risen and fallen, respectively. [Finance and real estate]: Net withdrawal in the money market, with overnight/1-week/2-week SHIBOR rates declining. A-share turnover rate and daily turnover have decreased. Land transaction premium rates have risen, and the transaction area of residential properties has decreased. [Public utilities]: The ex-factory price of natural gas has risen. The year-on-year growth rate of daily electricity generation in key national power plants has expanded over the past 12 weeks. Risk warning: Industry support is lower than expected, and macroeconomic fluctuations may occur.