Mei Lian: In the first quarter of 2026, the number of business registrations in Hong Kong reached 1,156 cases, an increase of 8.5% year-on-year.

According to data from the Research Department of the Midland IC&I, a total of 1,156 commercial properties were registered in the first quarter of this year in Hong Kong, an increase of 8.5% compared to the same period last year, reaching a new high for the same period in four years. However, the total registered amount was only 107 billion Hong Kong dollars, a decrease of approximately 13.8% compared to the previous year. It is worth noting that the quarterly registration volume of commercial properties has exceeded 1,000 units for six consecutive quarters, the longest record since 2022. Matthias Mohr, CEO of MIDLAND HOLDINGS (Residential) and Executive Director of Midland IC&I, believes that the continued stabilization of transactions reflects a significant rebound in the buying and selling prices of commercial properties, which has continually attracted funds back into the market. In March of this year, a total of approximately 420 commercial properties were registered for sale in Hong Kong, an increase of about 14.8% compared to the previous month, reaching an 8-month high. The registered amount was 45.2 billion Hong Kong dollars, an increase of approximately 78.8%, showing a situation where both the volume and amount have increased. The impact of the US-Iran conflict was not reflected in the data as there is usually a one-month lag between signing the sales contract and registering with the Land Registry in Hong Kong. Mohr stated that the increase in the number of registrations in March was mainly driven by second-hand transactions and not solely by new launchings. In an environment where prices have not yet stopped falling, buyers with strong purchasing power are taking advantage of the low prices, becoming the primary force behind the transactions. The increase in the registered amount in March far exceeded the increase in registration volume. Mohr believes that although the market is still in an adjustment period, the continuous increase in transaction momentum reflects that more funds are flowing in, leading to active large transactions. The major increase came from two large shopping mall transactions, which accounted for over 20% of the registered amount for the month, leading to a significant rebound in the overall amount. Mohr pointed out that large institutions and local funds in Hong Kong have once again entered the market, reflecting the confidence of some long-term investors in the office assets in the core areas of Hong Kong. When prices adjust to a reasonable range, the attractiveness of high-quality properties in core and adjacent areas naturally emerges. He believes that the trend of differential transactions may continue into the second quarter. Looking ahead to the second quarter, Mohr expects that transaction volumes will remain high, and with the ongoing US-Iran conflict, he believes that there may not be significant growth in the market in the short term, but transactions will remain stable. The ongoing Middle East conflict is causing global funds to become more cautious, which may have a certain impact on the local investment atmosphere in Hong Kong. However, as the direct impact of the conflict on Hong Kong is limited, combined with the gradual economic recovery in Hong Kong, the positive and negative factors are expected to balance each other out, and the transaction volume of commercial properties in the second quarter is expected to remain at a similar level to the first quarter. Regarding rent and sale prices, Mohr believes that market confidence is still in the recovery stage, and it is unlikely to see a significant breakthrough in the short term. Overall, rent and sale prices are likely to remain relatively stable, and buyers will continue to focus on projects with high cost-performance ratios. If macroeconomic risks do not deteriorate, the market is likely to further stabilize in the second half of the year.