HK Stock Market Move | Non-ferrous metal stocks continue to rebound, with oil prices falling again potentially leading to expectations of another interest rate cut. Domestic copper and aluminum inventories continue to decrease.

Non-ferrous metal stocks continued to rebound. As of the time of writing, CMOC Group Limited (03993) rose by 10.5% to 18.74 Hong Kong dollars; MMG (01208) rose by 10.57% to 8.37 Hong Kong dollars; JIANGXI COPPER (00358) rose by 9.08% to 37.96 Hong Kong dollars; Zijin Mining Group (02899) rose by 7.93% to 38.12 Hong Kong dollars. On the news front, the US and Iran reached a two-week temporary ceasefire agreement under the mediation of Pakistan, triggering a sharp drop in international crude oil futures. Guotai Junan Haitong previously released a research report stating that if the geopolitical situation eases in the future, oil prices are expected to stabilize and the market may see a reversal of the expectation for a Fed rate cut from the current stance of no cut or even a rate hike, to a new expectation for rate cuts, which may lead to a turning point for US stocks and bonds. Orient pointed out that the market has already corrected the previous "recession trades" last week, with both precious metals and industrial metal prices showing significant rebounds. As stagflation trades continue, excess returns in precious metals may gradually emerge, while industrial products continue to fluctuate within a range. The bank noted that the Middle East conflict has impacted the production and transportation of electrolytic aluminum and copper raw materials such as sulfur, with supply support still in place. Meanwhile, domestic copper and aluminum inventories continue to deplete, indicating that downstream buyers are gradually replenishing their stocks due to price adjustments and peak season demand, with the supply and demand reality of each product determining the bottom line of price fluctuation period.