Guotai Haitong: Qingming holiday in 2026 will be connected with spring break in many places, and the prosperity of the travel chain will rise again.

Guotai Haitong released a research report stating that during the Qingming holiday, the total interregional population flow is expected to be 845.37 million, with a daily average of 28.179 million, an increase of 6% compared to the previous year. The "spring break + Qingming" model of primary and secondary school holidays has created a full chain consumption scene covering transportation services, cultural tourism accommodation, and catering retail. In 2026, the Qingming holiday will coincide with spring breaks in many regions, resulting in high traffic flow and popularity in mountainous scenic areas, as well as steady growth in catering retail and service consumption. Key points from Guotai Haitong's report are as follows: Continuation of travel chain prosperity, with an estimated 845 million interregional travelers during the Qingming holiday According to data from the Ministry of Transport, during the Qingming holiday (April 4th to 6th), the total interregional population flow is expected to be 845.37 million, with a daily average of 28.179 million, a 6% increase compared to the previous year. Railway passenger traffic is estimated to be 57.679 million, with a daily average of 19.23 million, an 8.2% increase. Road passenger flow is estimated to be 77.845 million, with a daily average of 25.948 million, a 5.8% increase. Waterway passenger transport is estimated to be 3.725 million, with a daily average of 1.24 million, a 9.8% increase. Civil aviation passenger traffic is estimated to be 5.524 million, with a daily average of 1.84 million, a 1.3% decrease. The dual driving force of "spring break + Qingming" has led to impressive performances in catering retail and service consumption The model of combining primary and secondary school spring breaks with the Qingming holiday has created a full chain consumption scene covering transportation services, cultural tourism accommodation, catering retail, etc. Data from the Ministry of Commerce shows that during the Qingming holiday, the daily sales of key retail and catering enterprises nationwide increased by 2.4% compared to the previous year, and the foot traffic and turnover of 78 key pedestrian streets (commercial districts) monitored by the Ministry of Commerce increased by 6.0% and 6.7% respectively. In terms of service consumption, data shows that during the Qingming holiday, the sales of key monitored catering enterprises increased by 3.9%; accommodation expenses in key platform hotels increased by 2.6%, cross-city travel increased by 15.1% year-on-year, theme park consumption increased by 11.7%, parent-child research orders doubled year-on-year, and car rental orders increased by about 40%. Qingming spring outings have a strong grass-green attribute, and mountainous scenic areas benefit significantly During the Qingming holiday, there is a demand for enjoying the spring scenery and going green. Mountainous scenic areas have maintained high levels of popularity, and the resilient demand for natural sightseeing continues to be validated. During the three-day spring break at Emei Mountain Scenic Area (April 1st to 3rd), the total number of tourists exceeded 83,000, an increase of 200%; during the three days of Qingming (April 4th to 6th), the total number of tourists reached 137,300, an increase of approximately 73.76%. Jiuhua Mountain Scenic Area is expected to set a new historical record in terms of tourist reception. Changbai Mountain Tourism has implemented a free ticket policy for global tourists, and during the first two days of the Qingming holiday, it received a total of 12,625 tourists, an increase of 29.05% year-on-year, showing a good growth trend. During the three-day holiday at Huangshan Scenic Area, the total number of tourists exceeded 96,000, slightly higher than the 95,000 during the Qingming holiday in 2025. Investment recommendations: 1) With the overlap of the Spring Festival and Qingming holiday, it is recommended to focus on tourism travel: hotels (recommended HWorld-S, BTG Hotels, Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels, and related companies such as Yado), scenic spots (recommended Anhui Jiuhuashan Tourism Development, Wuhan Sante Cableway Group, Huangshan Tourism Development, Hubei Three Gorges Tourism Group, Emei Shan Tourism, etc.). 2) Significant improvement in competition landscape: Beijing Caishikou Department Store Co., Ltd., Shanghai Action Education Technology, GUOQUAN, Zhuhai Zhumian Group, China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation, Cendes Co., Ltd. 3) Individual stock opportunities: Jiangsu Guotai International Group, Sumec Corporation, HAIDILAO, Better Life Commercial ChainShare, GUMING, etc. 4) Consumer technology: Individual stocks like Ugreen Group Limited, and opportunities in the diamond industry. Risk warning: risks of consumer demand falling below expectations, intensifying competition, and macro policy risks.